{
  "id": "S24",
  "slug": "hundred-day-pandemic-defence",
  "title": "Hundred-day pandemic defence",
  "version": "0.4.0",
  "status": "active",
  "orientation": "upside",
  "family": "E",
  "short_title": "100-day pandemic defence",
  "thematics": [
    "resilience-crisis-preparedness",
    "demographics-human-capital",
    "ai-cyber-digital"
  ],
  "likelihood_type": "systemic",
  "likelihood_note": null,
  "scores": {
    "likelihood_2y": {
      "band": 3,
      "rationale": "The pieces exist: platform vaccines, wastewater and genomic surveillance, regional manufacturing under construction and a pandemic agreement adopted in 2025. Whether they work together is untested, and the test needs an outbreak."
    },
    "likelihood_10y": {
      "band": 4,
      "rationale": "Estimates of a COVID-scale outbreak run near 2 per cent a year; the chance that the defence is ready when it comes rises with each year of investment."
    },
    "impact_systemic": {
      "level": 4,
      "rationale": "Level 4 as a gain: the difference between a contained epidemic and a pandemic is several per cent of world output."
    },
    "impact_national": {
      "level": 4,
      "rationale": "Level 4: a nation inside the network keeps its hospitals, schools and borders open."
    },
    "confidence": {
      "level": "low",
      "reason": "The mechanism has never been run end to end."
    },
    "priority": 12,
    "tier": "II",
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.4"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "onset": "rapid (weeks)",
    "duration": "1 year",
    "warning": "days to weeks",
    "scope": "global",
    "origin": "natural",
    "external_support": "full",
    "policy_response": "best practice",
    "recovery_horizon": "months"
  },
  "summary": "A novel pathogen emerges and the world's defences work. Genomic surveillance finds it within days, a platform vaccine is designed in a week and authorised within 100 days, and regional factories produce doses for every continent at once. Tests and antivirals arrive on the same schedule. The outbreak is held to an epidemic: no general lockdowns, borders open, schools open. The benefit goes to nations inside the surveillance and manufacturing network that can deliver doses and are believed when they ask people to take them. Nations outside it wait, as they did in 2021.",
  "distribution": {
    "gains": [
      "Nations inside the surveillance and manufacturing network",
      "Health workers, who are protected first",
      "Children, whose schools stay open",
      "Travel, services and trade-dependent economies"
    ],
    "loses": [
      "Nations outside the sharing network",
      "Nations with doses but no means to deliver them",
      "Publics that do not believe their health authorities",
      "No one else: the losses are the gains not captured"
    ]
  },
  "narrative": {
    "dateline": "April 2029",
    "text": "The sequence is uploaded from a provincial laboratory on a Sunday and matched against nothing known by Monday. The alert is not a press conference; it is an automated notice to forty manufacturing sites that a new construct is coming. The vaccine design takes six days. Trial sites that were kept warm for exactly this enrol their first volunteers in week three. Wastewater in eleven countries shows the pathogen by week five, which is how governments know where to send the first doses. Authorisation comes on day 94. By day 130 the plants in Dakar, Hyderabad, São Paulo and Kigali are filling vials, and the country that hoarded in 2021 finds it cannot corner a supply made on four continents. Hospitals in the first affected cities are stretched, not broken. Schools close for two weeks in three provinces and nowhere else. The economists who priced a pandemic at 3 per cent of world output revise to a few tenths. The failures are local and familiar. A country that left the surveillance network waits five months longer. Another has the doses and not the nurses. A third has both, and a public that learned in the last pandemic not to believe its health ministry."
  },
  "anchors": [
    {
      "shock_id": "covid-19-vaccines-2020",
      "date": "2020",
      "event": "COVID-19 vaccines",
      "what_happened": "Vaccines were authorised about 11 months after the virus was sequenced",
      "calibrates": "the baseline to beat"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "100-days-mission-2021",
      "date": "2021",
      "event": "100 Days Mission",
      "what_happened": "A plan, endorsed by the G7, to have vaccines, tests and treatments ready within 100 days of a pandemic threat being identified",
      "calibrates": "Standard Severe target"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "who-pandemic-agreement-2025",
      "date": "20 May 2025",
      "event": "WHO Pandemic Agreement",
      "what_happened": "Adopted by the World Health Assembly, covering surveillance, pathogen sharing and access to products",
      "calibrates": "governance"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "mrna-technology-transfer-hub-2021",
      "date": "2021 onward",
      "event": "mRNA technology transfer hub",
      "what_happened": "A hub in South Africa began sharing vaccine technology with manufacturers in low- and middle-income countries",
      "calibrates": "regional manufacturing"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "ebola-ring-vaccination-2015",
      "date": "2015–2019",
      "event": "Ebola ring vaccination",
      "what_happened": "A vaccine trialled during the West African outbreak was used to contain later outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo",
      "calibrates": "vaccine use in an outbreak"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "mpox-response-in-africa-2022",
      "date": "2022–2024",
      "event": "Mpox response in Africa",
      "what_happened": "Vaccines reached affected African countries long after wealthy ones; an emergency was declared again in August 2024",
      "calibrates": "counter-anchor on access"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "vaccine-export-restrictions-2021",
      "date": "2021",
      "event": "Vaccine export restrictions",
      "what_happened": "Producers restricted exports and low-income countries waited months for doses",
      "calibrates": "what regional manufacturing is meant to prevent"
    }
  ],
  "parameters": {
    "common": {
      "severity": {
        "major": "major",
        "severe": "severe",
        "extreme": "extreme"
      },
      "duration": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "1 year",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "onset": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "rapid (weeks)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "warning": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "days to weeks",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "scope": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "global",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "origin": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "natural",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "external_support": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "full",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "concurrency": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "standalone",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "policy_response": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "best practice",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "recovery_horizon": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "months",
        "extreme": null
      }
    },
    "specific": [
      {
        "name": "Days from identification to authorised vaccine",
        "default": "100 days",
        "range": "60–200",
        "unit": "days",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Nations in the surveillance network",
        "default": "120",
        "range": "60–190",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Manufacturing regions with capacity",
        "default": "5",
        "range": "2–6",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Share of world population reached in six months",
        "default": "50 per cent",
        "range": "20–80",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Public uptake",
        "default": "70 per cent",
        "range": "40–90",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Pathogen severity",
        "default": "COVID-like",
        "range": "options: milder / 1918-like",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "transmission": [
    "Surveillance detects and shares the pathogen within days.",
    "Platform vaccines, tests and treatments are designed and trialled in weeks.",
    "Regional plants manufacture for every continent in parallel.",
    "Doses reach the first affected areas, guided by wastewater data.",
    "Health systems are stretched but hold; closures are local and short.",
    "Trade, travel and schooling continue.",
    "Nations outside the network, or unable to deliver, wait."
  ],
  "loading": [
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "defence-security",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "logistics support; biosecurity"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "cold chain, laboratories and wastewater networks"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "critical-technology",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "genomic surveillance, vaccine platforms and regional manufacturing"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "government-effectiveness",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "public health command, regulation at speed, procurement"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "human-capital",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "health workforce and delivery to every district"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "influence-cohesion",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "public trust and uptake; data sharing between states"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "macro-financial",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "pre-agreed financing; avoided fiscal cost"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "industry-trade-supply",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "supply chains for vials, lipids and reagents"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "energy-resources",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "no demand shock"
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": {
    "government": {
      "exposure": "Membership of the network, delivery capacity and public trust",
      "actions": [
        "Join surveillance and pathogen-sharing arrangements",
        "Keep trial sites and manufacturing warm between outbreaks",
        "Invest in trust before it is needed"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Sequence-sharing times",
        "Regional manufacturing capacity",
        "Vaccine confidence surveys"
      ],
      "relevance": 3
    },
    "technology": {
      "exposure": "Platform vaccines, sequencing and data systems",
      "actions": [
        "Maintain surge capacity under contract",
        "Build regulatory-grade data sharing"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Platform readiness exercises"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "investors": {
      "exposure": "Avoided losses in travel, services and sovereign debt; capacity payments to manufacturers",
      "actions": [
        "Value the standing capacity, not only outbreak sales"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Preparedness financing commitments"
      ],
      "relevance": 3
    },
    "public": {
      "exposure": "Health, work and schooling continue",
      "actions": [
        "Take up vaccination when offered"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Official guidance channels"
      ],
      "relevance": 5
    }
  },
  "regions": [
    {
      "region": "north-america",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Platform owners and manufacturers; trust deficits decide uptake"
    },
    {
      "region": "europe",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Manufacturing and regulation at speed"
    },
    {
      "region": "china",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Large manufacturing base; data sharing is the question"
    },
    {
      "region": "indo-pacific",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Strong surveillance and prior response capability"
    },
    {
      "region": "south-asia",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "India's manufacturing reaches the world; density at home"
    },
    {
      "region": "gulf-middle-east",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Capital to buy; a mobile workforce"
    },
    {
      "region": "africa",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "New regional plants; delivery and workforce are the constraint"
    },
    {
      "region": "latin-america",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Regional plants in Brazil and Argentina"
    },
    {
      "region": "russia-eurasia",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Partly outside the sharing network"
    }
  ],
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "Days from sequence to public sharing",
      "source": "GISAID",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Vaccine manufacturing capacity by region",
      "source": "CEPI, WHO",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Nations reporting wastewater surveillance",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Standing trial networks and platform readiness exercises",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Preparedness financing committed",
      "source": "Pandemic Fund",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Vaccine confidence",
      "source": "national surveys",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Ratification of the pandemic agreement",
      "source": "WHO",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    }
  ],
  "compounds": {
    "triggers": [],
    "triggered_by": [
      {
        "id": "S17",
        "note": "the same platforms and manufacturing"
      },
      {
        "id": "S15",
        "note": "faster design and trials"
      }
    ],
    "amplified_by": [],
    "triggered_by_other": [],
    "amplifying_trends": [
      "platform vaccine technology",
      "regional manufacturing",
      "genomic surveillance",
      "declining institutional trust"
    ]
  },
  "open_questions": [
    "Whether this is a scenario of its own or the best-practice policy response to S14.",
    "How to rate a defence that works for nations inside the network and fails for those outside.",
    "Whether trust can be treated as a capability and measured."
  ],
  "commentary": null,
  "overview": {
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.4",
    "lenses": {
      "political": "The alert is not a press conference; it is **a notice to forty manufacturing sites**. A country that left the network waits five months longer.",
      "economic": "A pandemic priced at 3 per cent of world output is revised to **a few tenths**.",
      "social": "Schools close for **two weeks in three provinces** and nowhere else. One public has learned not to believe its health ministry.",
      "technological": "The vaccine design takes **six days**; authorisation comes on day 94; four continents fill vials by day 130.",
      "legal": "Pathogen sharing and access rules agreed in advance mean **no one can corner the supply**.",
      "environmental": "A spillover from animals is caught by **wastewater surveillance** in eleven countries by week five."
    },
    "regions": {
      "north-america": "Platform owners and manufacturers; **trust decides uptake**.",
      "europe": "**Manufacturing and regulation at speed**.",
      "china": "A large manufacturing base; **data sharing** is the question.",
      "indo-pacific": "Strong surveillance and **prior response capability**.",
      "south-asia": "**India's manufacturing** reaches the world.",
      "gulf-middle-east": "Capital to buy; a **mobile workforce** to protect.",
      "africa": "**New regional plants**; delivery and workforce are the constraint.",
      "latin-america": "Regional plants in **Brazil and Argentina**.",
      "russia-eurasia": "Partly **outside the sharing network**."
    }
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "edition": 2027,
      "rank": null,
      "L2y": 3,
      "L10y": 4,
      "impact_systemic": 4,
      "impact_national": 4,
      "confidence": "low"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "version": "0.4.0",
      "date": "2026-10-03",
      "change": "Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S24 Hundred-day pandemic defence, Scenario Library v0.4. scenarios.ginc.org/library/hundred-day-pandemic-defence"
}