Emerging-market growth breakout

A Economic and tradeEconomic security and supply chainsDemographics and human capital

A dozen large developing economies sustain growth of 6 to 8 per cent for five years at once. Investment, manufacturing and services demand shift towards India, South-East Asia, Mexico and parts of Africa as supply chains diversify and young workforces come of age. Hundreds of millions join the middle class and world demand tilts south. The nations that break out are those with power, ports, schools and a state that can deliver. Advanced-economy incumbents lose market share, commodity prices rise for importers, and developing nations that are bypassed fall further behind.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	3Possible	4Likely	3Significant	4Major	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.4.0	3 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.4.0 · active
Change log: 0.4.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.
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Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S20 Emerging-market growth breakout, Scenario Library v0.4. scenarios.ginc.org/library/emerging-market-breakout

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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