Results · Scenarios 2027 · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Two indices sum up a nation's results. Vulnerability is its expected loss: each downside scenario's fall, as a share of the nation's baseline capability, weighted by how likely the scenario is. The most vulnerable nation is 100. Opportunity is its likelihood-weighted net position across the upside scenarios, from −100 to +100. The dashed lines are the medians.

10 years3 years

RegionArchetypeGroup (10 years)

													Weakest link
South Sudan	Acute fragility	100.0	100.0	−75.1% S04	−66.0%	0/14	5%	+1.29	−21.4	−23.0	+7 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Somalia	Acute fragility	92.9	94.8	−66.5% S04	−63.4%	0/14	5%	+1.43	−12.5	−15.3	+7 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Nauru	Acute fragility	73.5	73.7	−50.5% S09	−49.7%	11/14	8%	+1.38	−12.3	−11.9	+6 S21	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Afghanistan	Acute fragility	72.8	69.4	−65.5% S11	−59.8%	0/14	6%	+1.04	−17.1	−19.8	+6 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Central African Rep.	Acute fragility	71.7	72.0	−58.9% S09	−50.3%	0/14	7%	+1.20	−11.9	−14.8	+7 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Eritrea	Acute fragility	69.6	70.1	−50.4% S04	−47.4%	11/14	7%	+1.38	−12.0	−15.6	+8 S20	Exposed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 of 14
Yemen	Acute fragility	66.5	65.4	−65.9% S11	−55.2%	0/14	5%	+1.08	−14.0	−17.1	+6 S20	Exposed	Energy Infrastructure 3 of 14
Haiti	Acute fragility	63.6	62.5	−46.9% S09	−43.6%	0/14	8%	+1.30	−14.6	−14.6	+4 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Kiribati	Acute fragility	59.2	58.2	−42.6% S09	−39.8%	5/14	10%	+1.27	−11.3	−10.9	+6 S21	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Tuvalu	Acute fragility	58.6	57.1	−40.5% S14	−39.9%	3/14	9%	+1.19	−13.0	−12.1	+5 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Holy See	Acute fragility	56.7	56.2	−40.2% S03	−39.6%	12/14	7%	+0.92	−17.5	−17.0	+4 S24	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Guinea-Bissau	Fragile, with upside	54.5	53.9	−48.4% S09	−44.4%	14/14	9%	+1.14	−9.3	−12.3	+9 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Sudan	Fragile, with upside	52.7	50.8	−46.2% S04	−39.9%	13/14	9%	+1.39	−11.6	−14.5	+9 S20	Exposed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Marshall Islands	Acute fragility	52.3	52.1	−37.0% S14	−35.7%	12/14	11%	+1.28	−13.8	−12.9	+4 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Micronesia	Acute fragility	52.2	52.8	−40.7% S09	−37.8%	4/14	10%	+1.19	−11.5	−11.0	+8 S21	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Djibouti	Fragile, with upside	52.0	50.1	−32.1% S09	−30.2%	13/14	14%	+1.62	−8.3	−10.7	+8 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Burundi	Fragile, with upside	50.6	50.9	−40.8% S04	−37.7%	13/14	11%	+1.25	−8.4	−11.0	+12 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
DR Congo	Fragile, with upside	46.8	49.1	−29.5% S04	−27.6%	14/14	12%	+1.32	−6.5	−9.4	+13 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Libya	Fuel-dependent	46.4	47.9	−35.7% S12	−32.2%	0/14	12%	+1.37	−18.4	−19.6	+2 S22	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Syria	Fragile, with upside	45.9	41.2	−42.4% S04	−38.1%	11/14	8%	+1.03	−13.2	−16.1	+6 S21	Exposed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Chad	Fuel-dependent	45.7	46.2	−40.7% S04	−34.3%	14/14	10%	+1.04	−16.9	−18.4	+6 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Comoros	Fragile, with upside	45.6	44.8	−43.4% S11	−38.3%	13/14	10%	+1.03	−10.0	−12.5	+8 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
São Tomé & Príncipe	Fragile, with upside	43.7	40.7	−34.9% S04	−33.4%	14/14	13%	+1.19	−8.1	−9.8	+12 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Congo	Fuel-dependent	42.9	42.9	−34.5% S04	−29.4%	14/14	14%	+1.31	−15.4	−16.3	+8 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Palau	Small and exposed	41.9	41.3	−33.7% S03	−31.7%	14/14	12%	+1.15	−14.6	−13.6	+3 S24	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Vanuatu	Small and exposed	41.3	40.8	−33.2% S09	−29.6%	5/14	14%	+1.16	−8.5	−7.8	+10 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Solomon Islands	Small and exposed	41.0	42.5	−34.4% S09	−31.0%	13/14	13%	+1.16	−7.7	−7.2	+10 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Guinea	Fragile, with upside	40.9	42.7	−32.8% S09	−28.4%	13/14	14%	+1.24	−6.2	−8.7	+11 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Gambia	Fragile, with upside	40.7	40.9	−30.3% S09	−29.0%	13/14	14%	+1.28	−4.5	−6.3	+13 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Mauritania	Fragile, with upside	40.5	41.4	−28.5% S09	−26.9%	12/14	17%	+1.34	−5.6	−8.2	+10 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Equatorial Guinea	Fuel-dependent	40.2	40.9	−32.3% S12	−29.9%	12/14	13%	+1.09	−19.7	−21.3	+3 S22	Exposed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Tonga	Small and exposed	38.8	39.5	−30.4% S09	−27.8%	14/14	14%	+1.19	−10.1	−9.2	+5 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Laos	Small and exposed	38.7	40.3	−27.9% S09	−25.8%	9/14	16%	+1.36	−6.1	−6.5	+15 S21	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Liberia	Fragile, with upside	38.5	40.1	−35.5% S09	−28.8%	13/14	13%	+1.10	−5.0	−7.0	+13 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Lesotho	Fragile, with upside	37.8	40.8	−30.4% S09	−25.3%	9/14	15%	+1.22	−5.3	−7.1	+12 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
North Korea	Small and exposed	37.4	38.2	−26.9% S03	−26.1%	6/14	13%	+1.42	−8.8	−9.6	+16 S16	Exposed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Burkina Faso	Fragile, with upside	36.5	37.8	−30.5% S09	−26.2%	11/14	16%	+1.20	−4.0	−6.2	+14 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Mali	Fragile, with upside	35.7	35.9	−30.0% S09	−24.5%	13/14	15%	+1.15	−4.6	−7.2	+13 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Samoa	Small and exposed	34.4	34.5	−27.5% S09	−25.2%	13/14	16%	+1.12	−9.6	−8.7	+7 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Eswatini	Fragile, with upside	34.3	36.5	−28.1% S09	−22.8%	1/14	16%	+1.19	−5.8	−7.7	+10 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Niger	Fragile, with upside	34.1	32.7	−33.3% S11	−28.0%	14/14	14%	+1.01	−6.0	−8.5	+12 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Sierra Leone	Fragile, with upside	33.7	34.9	−28.9% S09	−25.6%	13/14	16%	+1.13	−1.3	−3.4	+14 S19	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Timor-Leste	Fuel-dependent	33.7	33.9	−25.1% S01	−24.6%	14/14	14%	+0.97	−16.0	−14.1	+6 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Palestine	Fragile, with upside	33.6	31.8	−26.1% S11	−24.7%	14/14	14%	+1.19	−4.6	−6.8	+11 S21	Exposed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Small and exposed	33.4	31.9	−23.6% S03	−22.7%	13/14	17%	+1.15	−10.8	−10.0	+8 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Saint Kitts & Nevis	Small and exposed	32.2	31.9	−22.9% S03	−21.9%	13/14	17%	+1.13	−11.1	−10.3	+8 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Bhutan	Small and exposed	32.1	32.0	−25.4% S09	−22.7%	14/14	19%	+1.15	−6.2	−7.2	+13 S21	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Malawi	Fragile, with upside	31.3	31.4	−26.6% S09	−23.6%	12/14	16%	+1.09	−1.8	−3.4	+18 S20	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Saint Lucia	Small and exposed	31.2	30.2	−24.0% S03	−22.2%	13/14	17%	+1.10	−13.3	−12.2	+4 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Grenada	Small and exposed	31.1	30.3	−23.7% S03	−21.5%	13/14	18%	+1.14	−8.9	−8.1	+8 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Dominica	Small and exposed	30.7	29.1	−23.4% S12	−22.4%	9/14	18%	+1.07	−9.4	−8.3	+8 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Zimbabwe	Fragile, with upside	30.6	31.3	−25.2% S04	−22.2%	14/14	17%	+1.23	−0.9	−3.0	+17 S20	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Madagascar	Fragile, with upside	30.6	31.6	−25.9% S09	−21.9%	4/14	17%	+1.11	−1.5	−3.9	+17 S20	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Lebanon	Small and exposed	30.5	29.2	−21.8% S03	−21.0%	13/14	17%	+1.33	−3.8	−6.0	+20 S21	Exposed	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 of 14
Gabon	Fuel-dependent	30.5	31.7	−25.4% S12	−23.4%	5/14	17%	+1.12	−14.0	−14.9	+4 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Belize	Small and exposed	30.3	29.1	−22.5% S03	−21.5%	11/14	18%	+1.11	−7.7	−6.7	+9 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Togo	Fragile, with upside	30.0	29.2	−25.4% S04	−24.4%	2/14	18%	+1.13	−3.4	−5.3	+18 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Maldives	Small and exposed	29.4	28.2	−20.5% S09	−19.7%	6/14	20%	+1.20	−5.5	−6.7	+13 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Benin	Fragile, with upside	29.2	28.7	−24.5% S09	−22.6%	12/14	18%	+1.09	−0.1	−2.1	+15 S20	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Nicaragua	Small and exposed	28.7	29.2	−20.0% S09	−19.4%	14/14	19%	+1.14	−6.4	−6.4	+11 S16	Exposed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Antigua & Barbuda	Small and exposed	28.6	28.3	−21.3% S03	−19.8%	13/14	19%	+1.11	−11.1	−9.8	+4 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Kosovo	Small and exposed	28.2	29.4	−21.5% S09	−19.6%	2/14	19%	+1.19	−6.2	−5.6	+15 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Suriname	Small and exposed	28.1	28.6	−23.3% S03	−22.4%	10/14	18%	+1.03	−11.6	−10.5	+3 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Myanmar	Fuel-dependent	28.1	29.2	−20.0% S10	−19.1%	14/14	15%	+1.04	−15.7	−14.7	+4 S20	Exposed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Cabo Verde	Fragile, with upside	27.6	27.1	−20.0% S09	−19.3%	14/14	21%	+1.13	−1.6	−1.9	+13 S19	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Tajikistan	Small and exposed	27.0	28.2	−20.1% S09	−16.8%	4/14	18%	+1.01	−13.9	−15.0	+8 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Zambia	Climbers	26.9	28.2	−20.1% S09	−18.2%	0/14	21%	+1.15	+3.0	+1.6	+19 S20	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Angola	Fuel-dependent	26.5	27.4	−18.1% S12	−17.6%	11/14	20%	+1.07	−9.2	−10.0	+10 S17	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Mozambique	Fuel-dependent	26.2	26.9	−22.9% S04	−20.3%	1/14	19%	+0.98	−7.0	−7.8	+21 S20	Exposed	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 of 14
Cambodia	Small and exposed	26.1	28.7	−21.2% S09	−19.5%	11/14	20%	+1.14	−1.8	−2.0	+17 S21	High stakes	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 of 14
San Marino	Small and exposed	25.7	27.2	−19.4% S14	−18.9%	9/14	22%	+1.13	−8.9	−8.5	+14 S24	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Venezuela	Fuel-dependent	24.8	23.7	−21.8% S12	−20.2%	11/14	17%	+1.07	−14.5	−13.5	+11 S20	Exposed	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 of 14
Papua New Guinea	Fuel-dependent	24.6	26.1	−18.4% S03	−16.8%	4/14	17%	+0.85	−13.1	−11.7	+8 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Fiji	Small and exposed	24.2	24.7	−18.4% S09	−17.1%	8/14	21%	+1.08	−3.6	−2.8	+12 S21	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Honduras	Small and exposed	24.2	24.0	−17.4% S09	−16.5%	14/14	21%	+1.08	−3.7	−3.3	+14 S16	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Seychelles	Holding ground	24.0	24.2	−17.7% S09	−16.9%	14/14	24%	+1.06	−0.4	−1.5	+12 S16	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Bahamas	Holding ground	23.3	21.7	−18.9% S12	−17.0%	7/14	23%	+1.02	−7.8	−6.6	+5 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Nepal	Climbers	22.9	21.9	−19.1% S09	−16.7%	12/14	21%	+1.00	−2.2	−2.9	+18 S20	Exposed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Andorra	Holding ground	22.7	23.1	−17.6% S14	−16.0%	5/14	22%	+1.01	−6.9	−6.3	+14 S24	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Mongolia	Holding ground	22.4	23.8	−16.5% S01	−15.3%	14/14	24%	+1.06	−1.7	−0.7	+13 S24	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
El Salvador	Holding ground	22.4	21.4	−16.9% S04	−16.1%	13/14	23%	+1.08	−1.8	−1.3	+15 S16	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Guyana	Fuel-dependent	22.2	23.1	−17.2% S12	−16.7%	10/14	20%	+0.88	−19.6	−18.0	+1 S24	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Turkmenistan	Fuel-dependent	22.0	22.3	−16.2% S11	−16.0%	14/14	15%	+0.75	−28.4	−28.6	−3 S19	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Monaco	Holding ground	21.7	21.8	−17.0% S14	−16.8%	8/14	25%	+1.03	−4.9	−4.3	+21 S24	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Cameroon	Fuel-dependent	21.6	21.4	−18.0% S12	−16.7%	14/14	19%	+0.87	−8.9	−10.2	+16 S20	Exposed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Holding ground	21.5	22.5	−16.4% S09	−15.0%	14/14	23%	+1.07	−6.3	−5.9	+20 S16	Exposed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Uganda	Climbers	21.5	21.8	−17.7% S09	−14.8%	14/14	23%	+1.00	+4.9	+3.3	+24 S20	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Iraq	Fuel-dependent	21.5	21.2	−17.4% S12	−15.0%	7/14	20%	+0.90	−13.2	−14.1	+3 S22	Exposed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Kyrgyzstan	Holding ground	21.1	21.2	−14.6% S12	−14.4%	7/14	20%	+0.89	−12.8	−12.6	+6 S20	Exposed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Montenegro	Holding ground	20.8	21.1	−14.4% S14	−14.1%	13/14	26%	+1.07	−2.5	−1.9	+20 S16	Exposed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Namibia	Climbers	20.8	22.1	−15.8% S09	−14.1%	13/14	26%	+0.98	+4.6	+3.8	+15 S16	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Ethiopia	Climbers	20.2	20.5	−17.3% S09	−14.5%	14/14	22%	+1.00	+4.4	+2.4	+24 S20	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Brunei	Holding ground	19.5	20.5	−15.8% S14	−14.5%	9/14	26%	+0.87	−15.1	−14.3	+12 S24	Exposed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
North Macedonia	Holding ground	19.4	20.2	−13.9% S09	−12.9%	14/14	27%	+1.01	−1.6	−1.2	+21 S16	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Botswana	Climbers	19.0	19.5	−15.5% S09	−14.5%	13/14	27%	+0.92	+2.2	+1.6	+16 S16	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Côte d'Ivoire	Climbers	19.0	18.5	−13.7% S04	−12.9%	14/14	23%	+0.86	+1.5	0.0	+19 S20	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Jamaica	Holding ground	18.8	18.1	−14.0% S12	−13.0%	14/14	27%	+0.92	−1.2	+0.1	+14 S20	High stakes	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Rwanda	Climbers	18.7	19.4	−15.8% S09	−13.2%	13/14	26%	+0.92	+7.9	+6.6	+22 S20	High stakes	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Paraguay	Holding ground	18.6	19.0	−15.4% S12	−14.6%	8/14	24%	+0.89	−6.5	−3.7	+15 S16	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Albania	Holding ground	17.9	18.1	−13.4% S14	−12.6%	14/14	26%	+0.90	−5.9	−5.3	+11 S24	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Barbados	Holding ground	17.9	16.9	−13.8% S03	−13.0%	14/14	25%	+0.82	−6.9	−5.6	+7 S20	Insulated	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Guatemala	Holding ground	17.8	17.1	−13.9% S09	−13.2%	12/14	24%	+0.85	−1.9	−1.4	+15 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Senegal	Climbers	17.6	17.7	−13.3% S09	−12.6%	12/14	27%	+0.90	+7.5	+5.6	+24 S22	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Bolivia	Holding ground	17.6	16.3	−17.8% S12	−16.4%	3/14	22%	+0.77	−10.9	−9.2	+10 S19	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Jordan	Climbers	17.1	16.3	−11.2% S12	−10.3%	3/14	31%	+0.94	+7.4	+5.9	+41 S21	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Dominican Republic	Holding ground	16.9	16.3	−14.1% S12	−12.5%	14/14	28%	+0.89	+0.9	+1.7	+19 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Cuba	Holding ground	16.9	15.8	−15.6% S12	−13.3%	10/14	25%	+0.86	−4.9	−5.5	+22 S24	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Armenia	Holding ground	16.8	17.2	−11.7% S14	−11.0%	14/14	27%	+0.89	−6.4	−5.9	+17 S16	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Tanzania	Climbers	16.6	17.2	−12.8% S09	−11.8%	14/14	25%	+0.80	+3.8	+2.4	+24 S20	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 of 14
Liechtenstein	Holding ground	16.1	17.8	−12.5% S09	−11.9%	14/14	29%	+0.87	−0.1	+0.4	+21 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Tunisia	Climbers	15.7	15.5	−11.0% S12	−10.2%	13/14	31%	+0.89	+7.9	+7.2	+20 S20	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Bangladesh	Climbers	15.5	15.1	−11.2% S09	−10.3%	0/14	28%	+0.84	+2.4	+0.9	+22 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Kenya	Climbers	15.3	14.8	−12.4% S09	−11.2%	0/14	29%	+0.83	+11.7	+10.4	+27 S20	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Algeria	Climbers	15.2	14.8	−12.9% S12	−11.7%	11/14	29%	+0.81	−3.7	−5.0	+23 S22	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Georgia	Holding ground	15.1	15.3	−9.3% S12	−9.2%	12/14	32%	+0.84	−2.9	−2.2	+18 S16	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Moldova	Holding ground	15.1	14.9	−11.3% S09	−10.6%	14/14	26%	+0.79	−6.8	−6.2	+6 S16	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Belarus	Holding ground	15.0	15.4	−11.7% S14	−11.2%	14/14	28%	+0.81	−5.9	−6.8	+19 S16	Insulated	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Cyprus	Holding ground	14.9	15.0	−10.1% S09	−9.7%	11/14	35%	+0.85	+3.2	+3.8	+24 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Panama	Holding ground	14.9	14.7	−12.0% S12	−11.3%	13/14	30%	+0.78	+0.1	+0.9	+13 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Sri Lanka	Climbers	14.8	14.5	−12.8% S09	−11.1%	14/14	29%	+0.84	+3.3	+2.4	+26 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Uzbekistan	Holding ground	14.5	14.5	−12.2% S12	−10.9%	14/14	25%	+0.70	−9.2	−10.0	+6 S20	Insulated	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Ghana	Climbers	14.4	14.3	−12.2% S04	−11.3%	13/14	29%	+0.75	+3.9	+4.2	+23 S19	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Costa Rica	Climbers	14.2	13.4	−11.8% S12	−10.4%	14/14	33%	+0.75	+6.0	+7.1	+23 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Ecuador	Holding ground	13.9	12.9	−13.0% S12	−11.7%	6/14	27%	+0.74	−6.7	−4.9	+11 S20	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Malta	Holding ground	13.6	13.8	−10.6% S14	−9.8%	14/14	36%	+0.78	+6.0	+6.4	+32 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Mauritius	Climbers	13.2	13.7	−10.8% S09	−9.7%	14/14	34%	+0.72	+8.8	+8.1	+22 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Pakistan	Climbers	13.2	12.2	−10.6% S04	−9.0%	13/14	30%	+0.78	+7.4	+6.5	+28 S20	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Azerbaijan	Holding ground	13.2	13.8	−10.4% S12	−9.6%	7/14	29%	+0.67	−17.2	−16.8	+1 S19	Insulated	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Bahrain	Holding ground	13.0	12.9	−11.5% S12	−10.4%	2/14	32%	+0.67	−6.0	−7.5	+12 S24	Insulated	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Trinidad & Tobago	Holding ground	13.0	12.8	−12.8% S12	−11.3%	10/14	29%	+0.65	−9.8	−8.1	+9 S24	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Latvia	Anchors	12.4	13.1	−8.1% S09	−7.6%	12/14	40%	+0.68	+9.5	+10.2	+31 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Serbia	Holding ground	12.4	12.9	−8.6% S14	−8.4%	9/14	35%	+0.73	+6.1	+6.3	+30 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Bulgaria	Holding ground	11.9	12.3	−9.6% S14	−8.6%	10/14	37%	+0.67	+4.9	+5.1	+30 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Kuwait	Holding ground	11.9	11.7	−11.9% S12	−10.0%	11/14	32%	+0.63	−6.5	−7.7	+13 S24	Insulated	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Morocco	Climbers	11.8	11.6	−8.7% S12	−8.2%	14/14	37%	+0.68	+14.9	+13.4	+36 S16	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Nigeria	Climbers	11.8	12.2	−9.9% S11	−9.2%	9/14	29%	+0.65	+3.2	+3.1	+22 S20	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Uruguay	Holding ground	11.7	11.0	−11.2% S12	−9.5%	14/14	36%	+0.63	+5.7	+8.0	+26 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Iran	Climbers	11.7	10.7	−9.3% S11	−8.2%	9/14	32%	+0.68	+1.1	−1.8	+25 S22	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Philippines	Climbers	11.4	11.5	−8.5% S13	−7.8%	14/14	36%	+0.64	+10.8	+11.4	+27 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Slovakia	Anchors	11.3	11.7	−7.5% S14	−7.2%	14/14	41%	+0.60	+10.4	+10.7	+38 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Oman	Holding ground	11.3	11.2	−10.1% S12	−8.7%	9/14	35%	+0.59	−2.0	−3.1	+17 S18	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Iceland	Anchors	11.2	11.4	−8.2% S12	−8.0%	13/14	41%	+0.58	+11.4	+12.3	+36 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Lithuania	Anchors	11.0	11.6	−7.0% S09	−6.6%	7/14	44%	+0.56	+12.6	+13.3	+39 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Croatia	Holding ground	11.0	11.3	−8.2% S14	−7.5%	14/14	39%	+0.61	+6.1	+6.5	+30 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Vietnam	Climbers	10.7	11.4	−8.2% S01	−7.7%	12/14	39%	+0.59	+11.1	+12.0	+28 S24	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 of 14
Hungary	Anchors	10.6	10.9	−7.4% S14	−6.8%	11/14	41%	+0.57	+14.1	+14.0	+42 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Slovenia	Anchors	10.4	11.0	−7.4% S09	−7.1%	13/14	42%	+0.55	+11.8	+12.3	+38 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Kazakhstan	Holding ground	10.3	10.3	−8.5% S12	−7.7%	13/14	34%	+0.58	−10.7	−9.6	+7 S18	Insulated	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Greece	Anchors	10.1	9.9	−7.6% S14	−7.0%	0/14	42%	+0.54	+8.3	+8.7	+35 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Luxembourg	Anchors	9.9	10.1	−7.4% S14	−7.2%	13/14	43%	+0.54	+13.3	+14.1	+36 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Egypt	Climbers	9.8	9.0	−7.6% S11	−6.8%	10/14	35%	+0.58	+5.3	+2.6	+30 S21	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Peru	Climbers	9.7	9.2	−10.4% S12	−8.5%	10/14	36%	+0.53	+3.6	+4.6	+16 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Ukraine	Holding ground	9.6	9.4	−6.6% S14	−6.3%	6/14	39%	+0.49	−3.0	+0.5	+22 S16	Insulated	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Romania	Holding ground	9.3	9.4	−6.9% S14	−6.4%	5/14	41%	+0.50	+6.8	+7.3	+30 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
South Africa	Climbers	9.2	9.1	−6.8% S12	−6.2%	6/14	43%	+0.45	+22.9	+22.8	+36 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Argentina	Climbers	9.2	8.2	−9.5% S12	−8.0%	11/14	36%	+0.53	+4.4	+6.5	+25 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Estonia	Anchors	9.1	9.6	−6.3% S14	−5.3%	11/14	47%	+0.40	+14.4	+15.3	+40 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Thailand	Anchors	9.1	9.5	−6.5% S14	−6.3%	13/14	43%	+0.47	+13.4	+14.1	+34 S24	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Colombia	Climbers	8.9	8.0	−9.3% S12	−7.7%	8/14	38%	+0.47	+0.1	+1.7	+19 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Poland	Anchors	8.5	9.0	−5.1% S09	−5.0%	7/14	48%	+0.34	+17.0	+17.3	+51 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Chile	Anchors	8.5	8.2	−8.1% S12	−6.7%	13/14	44%	+0.38	+13.3	+14.2	+34 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Ireland	Anchors	8.4	9.1	−6.1% S09	−5.6%	14/14	47%	+0.41	+21.1	+22.0	+46 S24	Well placed	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2 of 14
Portugal	Anchors	8.4	8.5	−6.1% S09	−5.7%	14/14	46%	+0.40	+15.4	+15.9	+43 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Czechia	Anchors	8.4	8.8	−6.2% S14	−5.8%	13/14	46%	+0.39	+17.1	+17.5	+50 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Indonesia	Climbers	8.1	8.1	−6.2% S13	−5.9%	3/14	40%	+0.42	+6.8	+8.1	+23 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Malaysia	Anchors	7.7	7.9	−6.2% S14	−5.8%	12/14	46%	+0.34	+12.6	+13.1	+38 S24	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 of 14
Mexico	Climbers	7.5	6.9	−7.2% S12	−6.1%	9/14	43%	+0.37	+10.6	+11.4	+29 S24	Well placed	Internal Security & Order 4 of 14
Qatar	Holding ground	7.5	7.3	−8.7% S12	−6.8%	6/14	40%	+0.36	−0.4	−1.9	+20 S24	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Belgium	Anchors	7.2	7.3	−5.0% S14	−4.7%	14/14	52%	+0.21	+26.4	+27.1	+58 S16	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 3 of 14
Austria	Anchors	7.2	7.4	−4.9% S09	−4.7%	14/14	50%	+0.30	+22.9	+23.6	+51 S16	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 2 of 14
Türkiye	Anchors	6.9	6.4	−4.8% S12	−4.4%	13/14	46%	+0.31	+17.1	+15.4	+60 S21	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Taiwan	Anchors	6.5	6.8	−4.8% S09	−4.6%	14/14	53%	+0.20	+30.3	+30.5	+61 S16	Well placed	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 2 of 14
India	Climbers	6.4	6.1	−4.3% S13	−4.1%	4/14	47%	+0.28	+21.6	+22.1	+37 S16	Well placed	Labour & Employment 4 of 14
Finland	Anchors	6.2	6.5	−3.9% S09	−3.7%	8/14	57%	+0.15	+28.6	+29.7	+59 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Italy	Anchors	6.2	6.0	−4.4% S13	−4.3%	11/14	51%	+0.20	+19.6	+20.1	+57 S16	Well placed	Labour & Employment 3 of 14
Spain	Anchors	6.1	6.0	−4.2% S09	−4.2%	0/14	53%	+0.15	+22.0	+22.5	+61 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
New Zealand	Anchors	6.0	5.9	−4.9% S12	−4.5%	4/14	52%	+0.21	+21.4	+22.3	+42 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Brazil	Climbers	6.0	5.3	−6.3% S12	−5.3%	13/14	46%	+0.26	+9.7	+12.8	+32 S24	Well placed	Internal Security & Order 4 of 14
Saudi Arabia	Anchors	5.9	5.6	−6.1% S12	−5.0%	12/14	45%	+0.27	+5.1	+3.6	+24 S24	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 of 14
Denmark	Anchors	5.5	5.8	−4.3% S12	−4.0%	12/14	55%	+0.18	+24.1	+25.1	+58 S24	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
United Arab Emirates	Anchors	5.5	5.6	−5.3% S12	−4.6%	11/14	49%	+0.20	+10.3	+8.8	+32 S18	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 of 14
Switzerland	Anchors	5.4	5.8	−4.3% S09	−4.0%	0/14	56%	+0.21	+31.0	+32.2	+65 S16	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 3 of 14
Singapore	Anchors	5.3	5.5	−4.3% S09	−4.1%	13/14	59%	+0.15	+32.1	+32.0	+67 S24	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 4 of 14
Netherlands	Anchors	4.9	5.0	−3.7% S14	−3.3%	13/14	59%	+0.04	+32.0	+33.1	+65 S24	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 3 of 14
Sweden	Anchors	4.9	5.1	−3.6% S14	−3.4%	0/14	59%	+0.06	+31.9	+33.0	+66 S16	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Norway	Anchors	4.9	5.3	−3.7% S12	−3.5%	9/14	58%	+0.07	+16.5	+17.6	+51 S24	Well placed	Energy Infrastructure 5 of 14
South Korea	Anchors	4.7	4.8	−3.3% S09	−3.2%	2/14	60%	+0.03	+37.5	+37.2	+77 S16	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 4 of 14
Israel	Anchors	4.4	4.0	−3.4% S12	−3.1%	11/14	54%	+0.11	+23.5	+23.5	+44 S24	Well placed	Energy Infrastructure 4 of 14
Russia	Holding ground	4.4	4.0	−4.4% S13	−4.1%	1/14	46%	+0.22	−3.2	−2.9	+23 S24	Insulated	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 of 14
France	Anchors	4.1	4.0	−2.9% S09	−2.8%	0/14	62%	+0.02	+32.6	+33.6	+79 S16	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 4 of 14
United Kingdom	Anchors	4.1	4.2	−3.4% S01	−3.2%	0/14	62%	+0.01	+33.6	+34.4	+67 S18	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
Germany	Anchors	4.1	4.2	−3.0% S09	−2.8%	0/14	61%	+0.02	+34.4	+35.2	+76 S16	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 3 of 14
Japan	Anchors	4.0	3.9	−3.0% S09	−2.9%	0/14	62%	+0.04	+36.2	+35.9	+81 S16	Well placed	Resource Infrastructure 4 of 14
Australia	Anchors	4.0	3.8	−3.4% S12	−3.3%	7/14	59%	+0.04	+20.5	+22.6	+52 S24	Well placed	Energy Infrastructure 5 of 14
Canada	Anchors	3.3	3.1	−3.4% S14	−3.3%	6/14	59%	+0.02	+21.1	+22.6	+54 S15	Well placed	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 of 14
China	Anchors	3.2	3.0	−2.9% S10	−2.7%	1/14	58%	+0.05	+25.4	+22.7	+54 S16	Well placed	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 of 14
United States	Anchors	2.2	1.8	−2.4% S13	−2.3%	14/14	66%	0.00	+24.9	+26.0	+74 S15	Well placed	Health System Capability 3 of 14

Hover a column heading for its definition. Each likelihood band is turned into a probability at the midpoint of its range; band 5, which is open-ended, is taken as 40 per cent. For scenarios that strike one nation at a time, a nation's probability is the scenario's probability scaled by its exposure relative to the average nation, so that more exposed nations are also more likely to be struck. Scenarios are treated as independent. They are not: one can trigger another, so the sum overstates some combinations and misses compounding. Worst case and tail are shares of the baseline index. Download the indices as CSV.

Seven archetypes

Nations with similar results across all 24 scenarios fall into seven groups. Archetypes are found, not assigned. Nations are grouped by k-means clustering on their results in all 24 scenarios, each scenario standardised so that none dominates. The names and descriptions are GINC's reading of each group. An archetype describes a pattern of results in this run; it is not a judgement of a nation.

AnchorsClimbersHolding groundFuel-dependentFragile, with upsideSmall and exposedAcute fragility

The same chart as above, coloured by archetype. One nation from each is named. The groups are found on all 24 scenario results, not on these two indices, which is why some overlap here.

Anchors

42 nations

Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside.

High-capability economies with deep buffers. No downside scenario costs them more than a few per cent of their capability, and their own buffers absorb about half of every shock. They are ready for the gains that reward technology, trade and health systems: superintelligence, détente and the pandemic defence. Their lead over other nations is narrowest in displacement, food and chokepoint scenarios, and they gain little from scenarios built for catch-up.

13.2 baseline7 vulnerability+21 opportunity−5% worst case51% absorbed

Furthest behind others in: Mass displacement, Food and water shock, Chokepoint closure
Holds up best in: Infrastructure collapse, AI diffusion shock
Gains most from: 100-day pandemic defence, Superintelligence takeoff, Great-power détente
Gains least from: Sovereign debt reset, Emerging-market breakout

42 nations

Climbers

34 nations

Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up.

Large and mid-sized developing economies with working institutions and room to grow. They gain more than any other group from the scenarios that reward catching up: the emerging-market breakout, a debt reset and the yield revolution. They are less ready for the frontier upsides. Displacement, food and legitimacy shocks are where they sit furthest behind the leaders.

7.8 baseline14 vulnerability+6 opportunity−12% worst case32% absorbed

Furthest behind others in: Mass displacement, Food and water shock, Legitimacy crisis
Holds up best in: Geoeconomic confrontation, Hybrid campaign
Gains most from: Emerging-market breakout, Sovereign debt reset, Yield revolution
Gains least from: 100-day pandemic defence, Superintelligence takeoff

34 nations

Holding ground

43 nations

Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed.

Middle-income states, many of them small or in Europe's neighbourhood and Central Asia. Their buffers hold against food and funding shocks better than their income would suggest, while hybrid campaigns, geoeconomic confrontation and infrastructure failure find them more exposed. They are too rich for the catch-up scenarios and too far from the frontier for the technology ones, so the upside largely passes them by.

7.0 baseline16 vulnerability−4 opportunity−13% worst case29% absorbed

Furthest behind others in: Hybrid campaign, Geoeconomic confrontation, Infrastructure collapse
Holds up best in: Food and water shock, Sovereign funding crisis
Gains most from: 100-day pandemic defence, Great-power détente, Superintelligence takeoff
Gains least from: Yield revolution, Emerging-market breakout

43 nations

Fuel-dependent

15 nations

Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside.

Hydrocarbon exporters with thin buffers. An energy supply shock or a chokepoint closure hurts them less than it hurts others, because they are the suppliers. Their distinguishing feature is on the other side: energy abundance and a Middle East settlement, both gains for most of the world, are large losses for them. They are the clearest case that an upside scenario is not upside for everyone.

3.8 baseline31 vulnerability−15 opportunity−24% worst case16% absorbed

Furthest behind others in: Single-supplier cut-off, Legitimacy crisis, Infrastructure collapse
Holds up best in: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure
Gains most from: Yield revolution, Sovereign debt reset, Biomedical breakthroughs
Gains least from: Energy abundance, Middle East settlement

15 nations

Iraq Angola Venezuela Guyana Cameroon Mozambique Gabon Myanmar Papua New Guinea Turkmenistan Congo Libya Timor-Leste Equatorial Guinea Chad

Fragile, with upside

25 nations

Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields.

Low-income states, most of them in Africa, with weak buffers. Funding, food, energy and legitimacy shocks each remove a large share of what capability they have. Unlike the acutely fragile, they have enough of a state to benefit from a debt reset, a yield revolution and a growth breakout, though delivery limits how much they capture.

3.3 baseline39 vulnerability−6 opportunity−32% worst case14% absorbed

Furthest behind others in: Food and water shock, Sovereign funding crisis, Energy supply shock
Holds up best in: Geoeconomic confrontation, Hybrid campaign
Gains most from: Sovereign debt reset, Yield revolution, Emerging-market breakout
Gains least from: 100-day pandemic defence, Digital state leapfrog

25 nations

Small and exposed

25 nations

Small states with narrow economies and few buffers.

Small island and small landlocked states, with a few larger ones whose economies are narrow. Their vulnerability is broad, not acute: geoeconomic confrontation, a chokepoint closure and an AI diffusion shock all bite because there is little to fall back on. They are placed to gain least from the health and trade upsides, which need scale or systems they do not have.

4.1 baseline32 vulnerability−8 opportunity−24% worst case17% absorbed

Furthest behind others in: Geoeconomic confrontation, Chokepoint closure, AI diffusion shock
Holds up best in: Mass displacement, Food and water shock
Gains most from: Energy abundance, Middle East settlement, Sovereign debt reset
Gains least from: Biomedical breakthroughs, Great-power détente

25 nations

Acute fragility

13 nations

Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose.

States in conflict or collapse, and the smallest micro-states, where many capabilities are absent. Every downside scenario removes a large share of a very low baseline, and none of the upside scenarios reaches them, because capturing a gain needs the capabilities they lack. For the micro-states this is partly an artefact: several capabilities do not apply to them.

1.9 baseline68 vulnerability−14 opportunity−52% worst case7% absorbed

Furthest behind others in: AI diffusion shock, Pandemic, Disaster in the core
Holds up best in: Mass displacement, Sovereign funding crisis
Gains most from: Energy abundance, Emerging-market breakout, Middle East settlement
Gains least from: Digital state leapfrog, Great-power détente

13 nations

Marshall Islands Micronesia Kiribati Tuvalu Haiti Eritrea Nauru Holy See Central African Rep.Yemen Somalia Afghanistan South Sudan

Archetype by scenario

Each archetype's mean result in every scenario: the share of the capability index lost in the downside scenarios, and the net position in the upside ones.

Archetype	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15↗	16↗	17↗	18↗	19↗	20↗	21↗	22↗	23↗	24↗
Anchors	-3.5%	-2.8%	-3.8%	-2.5%	-3.6%	-2.4%	-1.8%	-1.6%	-4.2%	-2.1%	-1.2%	-4.5%	-4.3%	-4.8%	+26	+38	+12	+29	0	+8	+31	+3	+9	+46
Climbers	-5.2%	-5.6%	-7.5%	-8.2%	-6.7%	-3.0%	-6.9%	-4.8%	-9.0%	-6.3%	-6.9%	-9.7%	-7.8%	-8.3%	−14	+5	+7	+5	+11	+20	+10	+12	+6	+12
Holding ground	-8.3%	-6.3%	-9.8%	-7.3%	-7.5%	-4.7%	-5.8%	-3.5%	-9.1%	-5.6%	-4.3%	-11.7%	-10.0%	-11.3%	−16	−1	−12	+2	+1	0	+2	−11	−5	+12
Fuel-dependent	-16.0%	-14.9%	-19.5%	-19.2%	-8.3%	-6.9%	-16.5%	-11.4%	-10.2%	-14.4%	-17.0%	-20.6%	-16.0%	-20.2%	−28	−69	−8	−6	+3	+1	−38	−2	−13	−3
Fragile, with upside	-13.3%	-13.9%	-22.7%	-27.6%	-21.4%	-6.5%	-18.8%	-13.4%	-28.9%	-14.1%	-24.8%	-22.0%	-16.9%	-20.6%	−28	+3	0	−2	+9	+12	+3	+6	−12	−5
Small and exposed	-16.4%	-11.2%	-21.3%	-17.1%	-19.0%	-6.7%	-11.4%	-6.1%	-22.5%	-12.8%	-11.1%	-17.8%	-17.6%	-19.7%	−29	+5	−21	−14	+3	+3	+5	−12	−8	+3
Acute fragility	-29.7%	-23.3%	-41.8%	-40.3%	-37.4%	-13.6%	-30.1%	-20.7%	-45.4%	-29.8%	-38.6%	-34.4%	-33.3%	-38.6%	−41	−6	−15	−19	−1	+3	−3	−9	−17	−4

Scenario by scenario

Scenario	Family	Test	Likelihood, 3 years · 10 years	Typical nation	Hardest hit or least gain	Most exposed region	Spread
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Load	22% · 40%	−0.48	−1.10	Indo-Pacific −0.65	142 nations lose a domain band
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	Load	54% · 40%	−0.42	−0.77	Africa −0.49	138 nations lose a domain band
Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	Load	22% · 40%	−0.64	−1.15	Africa −0.71	159 nations lose a domain band
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	Load	4% · 15% per nation	−0.55	−1.21	Africa −0.79	142 nations lose a domain band
Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	Load	22% · 40%	−0.56	−0.99	South Asia −0.68	129 nations lose a domain band
Hybrid campaign S06	Geopolitical and security	Load	22% · 40% per nation	−0.25	−0.59	Europe −0.38	96 nations lose a domain band
Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Load	22% · 40% per nation	−0.44	−0.77	Africa −0.59	132 nations lose a domain band
Mass displacement S08	Geopolitical and security	Load	4% · 15% per nation	−0.25	−0.75	Africa −0.43	113 nations lose a domain band
Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Load	22% · 40%	−0.72	−1.06	South Asia −0.83	134 nations lose a domain band
Disaster in the core S10	Energy, climate and resources	Load	4% · 15% per nation	−0.41	−0.87	Latin America and Caribbean −0.51	130 nations lose a domain band
Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Load	4% · 15%	−0.36	−1.08	Africa −0.69	121 nations lose a domain band
Infrastructure collapse S12	Technology and infrastructure	Load	4% · 15% per nation	−0.69	−1.07	Latin America and Caribbean −0.85	158 nations lose a domain band
AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	Load	4% · 40%	−0.61	−1.09	Indo-Pacific −0.69	161 nations lose a domain band
Pandemic S14	Health	Load	4% · 15%	−0.68	−1.01	Latin America and Caribbean −0.76	166 nations lose a domain band
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Technology and infrastructure	Capture	4% · 15%	−20.3	−52.6	South Asia −29.9	29 gainers · 35 mixed · 133 losers
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Energy, climate and resources	Capture	4% · 15%	+8.0	−84.0	Gulf and Middle East −14.5	88 gainers · 65 mixed · 44 losers
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Health	Capture	4% · 15%	−3.1	−39.8	Russia and Eurasia −12.9	42 gainers · 87 mixed · 68 losers
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Geopolitical and security	Capture	4% · 15%	+1.9	−29.5	South Asia −10.8	55 gainers · 106 mixed · 36 losers
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Economic and trade	Capture	1% · 3%	+3.0	−16.6	China −12.1	31 gainers · 164 mixed · 2 losers
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Economic and trade	Capture	4% · 15%	+6.8	−30.6	Europe −1.1	77 gainers · 111 mixed · 9 losers
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Geopolitical and security	Capture	1% · 3%	+6.9	−51.4	Russia and Eurasia −12.7	80 gainers · 89 mixed · 28 losers
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Energy, climate and resources	Capture	1% · 15%	0.0	−37.7	Russia and Eurasia −22.5	29 gainers · 116 mixed · 52 losers
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Technology and infrastructure	Capture	22% · 40% per nation	−3.3	−29.2	Russia and Eurasia −13.6	24 gainers · 130 mixed · 43 losers
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Health	Capture	4% · 15%	+7.7	−17.3	Africa −1.9	87 gainers · 102 mixed · 8 losers

Load test figures are changes in the capability index, in points on its 0 to 20 scale, under current plans. Capture test figures are net positions on a scale of −100 to +100.

Every nation, every scenario

Nations in order of their baseline capability index. Darker cells are larger falls; purple cells are net gains in the upside scenarios. Select a nation or a scenario for its page.

Region


United States	18.0	−0.10	−0.11	−0.32	−0.30	−0.04	−0.08	−0.18	−0.13	−0.05	−0.41	−0.10	−0.34	−0.43	−0.38	+74	+11	+30	+19	−1	+13	+12	−1	+10	+49
France	16.6	−0.26	−0.25	−0.41	−0.32	−0.33	−0.21	−0.20	−0.17	−0.48	−0.32	−0.13	−0.40	−0.47	−0.46	+41	+79	+20	+35	+3	+14	+48	+1	+14	+61
United Kingdom	16.5	−0.55	−0.29	−0.51	−0.35	−0.29	−0.20	−0.19	−0.20	−0.30	−0.10	−0.05	−0.31	−0.50	−0.43	+48	+49	+22	+67	+6	+11	+36	+5	+13	+59
Germany	16.4	−0.29	−0.28	−0.39	−0.28	−0.39	−0.24	−0.14	−0.19	−0.49	−0.17	−0.13	−0.45	−0.45	−0.46	+47	+76	+25	+43	+1	+8	+46	+5	+10	+61
Japan	16.3	−0.30	−0.27	−0.38	−0.27	−0.39	−0.17	−0.15	−0.08	−0.49	−0.36	−0.15	−0.43	−0.45	−0.46	+58	+81	+10	+35	+2	+23	+49	+15	+21	+60
South Korea	16.0	−0.46	−0.35	−0.42	−0.25	−0.47	−0.17	−0.15	−0.10	−0.53	−0.39	−0.18	−0.43	−0.42	−0.51	+65	+77	+13	+44	+4	+20	+44	+14	+20	+61
China	15.6	−0.24	−0.16	−0.26	−0.19	−0.28	−0.09	−0.21	−0.20	−0.29	−0.46	−0.20	−0.35	−0.39	−0.42	+46	+54	+5	+43	−12	+15	+43	+20	−1	+35
Netherlands	15.5	−0.40	−0.31	−0.47	−0.31	−0.40	−0.26	−0.17	−0.18	−0.48	−0.22	−0.10	−0.50	−0.47	−0.58	+44	+57	+24	+45	−0	+8	+38	+3	+10	+65
Sweden	15.3	−0.39	−0.33	−0.40	−0.23	−0.44	−0.26	−0.21	−0.17	−0.54	−0.14	−0.09	−0.47	−0.45	−0.55	+37	+66	+24	+41	+0	+12	+43	+3	+14	+62
Singapore	15.2	−0.46	−0.34	−0.46	−0.26	−0.62	−0.18	−0.20	−0.08	−0.65	−0.23	−0.21	−0.55	−0.41	−0.57	+45	+55	+17	+49	0	+17	+37	+7	+12	+67
Canada	15.1	−0.37	−0.22	−0.38	−0.30	−0.09	−0.13	−0.19	−0.14	−0.08	−0.23	−0.06	−0.48	−0.48	−0.51	+54	−7	+26	+40	+2	+7	+2	−6	+10	+53
Australia	14.9	−0.35	−0.29	−0.34	−0.34	−0.18	−0.17	−0.19	−0.11	−0.20	−0.33	−0.13	−0.51	−0.51	−0.46	+30	−4	+26	+24	+5	+20	+10	−2	+22	+52
Switzerland	14.7	−0.40	−0.37	−0.36	−0.06	−0.62	−0.31	−0.16	−0.18	−0.63	−0.18	−0.12	−0.50	−0.46	−0.53	+40	+65	+19	+51	−3	+7	+36	+2	+8	+57
Norway	14.6	−0.30	−0.35	−0.34	−0.15	−0.16	−0.44	−0.18	−0.18	−0.22	−0.17	−0.06	−0.54	−0.46	−0.54	+28	−2	+21	+28	−2	+1	+10	−0	+10	+51
Finland	14.5	−0.37	−0.31	−0.44	−0.32	−0.44	−0.45	−0.19	−0.17	−0.56	−0.14	−0.09	−0.47	−0.45	−0.56	+33	+59	+21	+35	+3	+11	+41	+3	+15	+56
Israel	14.5	−0.37	−0.13	−0.37	−0.26	−0.33	−0.21	−0.24	−0.32	−0.19	−0.29	−0.35	−0.50	−0.44	−0.44	+38	+12	+18	+23	+2	+24	+40	+15	+19	+44
Taiwan	14.0	−0.63	−0.42	−0.47	−0.25	−0.63	−0.21	−0.18	−0.09	−0.67	−0.39	−0.25	−0.49	−0.58	−0.61	+52	+61	+13	+13	+6	+23	+29	+14	+22	+55
Denmark	13.9	−0.47	−0.38	−0.43	−0.17	−0.36	−0.31	−0.17	−0.17	−0.41	−0.18	−0.16	−0.61	−0.48	−0.59	+27	+33	+23	+39	−2	+6	+25	+2	+10	+58
Spain	13.8	−0.32	−0.30	−0.52	−0.43	−0.40	−0.29	−0.25	−0.20	−0.58	−0.28	−0.14	−0.54	−0.58	−0.58	+19	+61	+9	+22	+3	+4	+40	+2	+7	+51
Italy	13.7	−0.33	−0.31	−0.54	−0.39	−0.40	−0.29	−0.24	−0.21	−0.60	−0.35	−0.14	−0.52	−0.60	−0.58	+21	+57	−3	+26	−1	−0	+37	+2	+5	+47
Belgium	13.5	−0.47	−0.36	−0.59	−0.42	−0.56	−0.33	−0.25	−0.20	−0.62	−0.22	−0.17	−0.62	−0.57	−0.67	+29	+58	+15	+37	+0	+8	+38	+1	+9	+56
New Zealand	12.8	−0.41	−0.30	−0.39	−0.32	−0.43	−0.21	−0.21	−0.11	−0.49	−0.32	−0.13	−0.62	−0.57	−0.55	+18	+31	+18	+22	+6	+20	+29	+6	+19	+42
Austria	12.8	−0.45	−0.37	−0.55	−0.39	−0.58	−0.36	−0.21	−0.20	−0.63	−0.22	−0.11	−0.56	−0.54	−0.59	+30	+51	+13	+33	0	+3	+33	+1	+6	+45
India	12.6	−0.26	−0.24	−0.31	−0.40	−0.40	−0.21	−0.45	−0.28	−0.50	−0.49	−0.38	−0.48	−0.54	−0.44	−0	+37	+19	+2	+8	+36	+30	+26	+26	+19
Poland	12.4	−0.44	−0.41	−0.55	−0.27	−0.48	−0.51	−0.24	−0.33	−0.63	−0.21	−0.18	−0.52	−0.58	−0.64	+13	+51	+9	+16	−2	−1	+37	+1	+6	+42
Russia	12.3	−0.30	−0.26	−0.28	−0.19	−0.06	−0.14	−0.36	−0.21	−0.10	−0.43	−0.17	−0.51	−0.54	−0.47	−0	−36	+6	+22	−1	−0	−28	−20	−11	+23
Türkiye	12.2	−0.24	−0.21	−0.35	−0.36	−0.48	−0.25	−0.41	−0.45	−0.51	−0.40	−0.32	−0.58	−0.52	−0.49	+7	+41	+15	+14	+2	+17	+60	+14	+4	+30
Ireland	12.1	−0.60	−0.50	−0.54	−0.33	−0.64	−0.38	−0.21	−0.22	−0.74	−0.15	−0.13	−0.63	−0.55	−0.66	+23	+41	+13	+44	−4	−1	+32	−2	+7	+46
United Arab Emirates	11.9	−0.43	−0.35	−0.40	−0.22	−0.34	−0.23	−0.26	−0.17	−0.13	−0.19	−0.35	−0.63	−0.47	−0.54	+16	−22	+25	+32	−8	+2	+23	+9	−3	+29
Brazil	11.7	−0.30	−0.20	−0.47	−0.46	−0.07	−0.19	−0.40	−0.29	−0.14	−0.37	−0.17	−0.74	−0.54	−0.58	+2	−20	+10	+15	+10	+22	−10	−11	+18	+32
Portugal	11.7	−0.45	−0.38	−0.62	−0.43	−0.53	−0.34	−0.24	−0.21	−0.71	−0.29	−0.12	−0.59	−0.60	−0.67	+9	+43	−1	+22	+2	+2	+34	+0	+6	+41
Czechia	11.5	−0.50	−0.47	−0.54	−0.18	−0.59	−0.32	−0.21	−0.24	−0.70	−0.22	−0.20	−0.59	−0.59	−0.71	+16	+50	+5	+21	−4	−2	+32	−0	+6	+43
Estonia	11.5	−0.53	−0.44	−0.53	−0.31	−0.43	−0.52	−0.24	−0.22	−0.48	−0.20	−0.13	−0.58	−0.54	−0.72	+12	+21	+6	+23	+3	+4	+21	0	+11	+40
Malaysia	11.5	−0.61	−0.47	−0.58	−0.41	−0.35	−0.26	−0.30	−0.16	−0.28	−0.36	−0.19	−0.67	−0.63	−0.72	+20	−18	+10	+20	+7	+16	−1	+7	+13	+38
Saudi Arabia	11.2	−0.31	−0.26	−0.25	−0.15	−0.25	−0.29	−0.36	−0.34	−0.13	−0.24	−0.39	−0.68	−0.52	−0.47	+6	−29	+19	+17	−9	+3	+19	+9	−3	+24
Mexico	10.8	−0.48	−0.32	−0.47	−0.48	−0.16	−0.17	−0.39	−0.22	−0.23	−0.55	−0.25	−0.78	−0.56	−0.65	+2	−10	+14	+11	+9	+22	−8	+4	+13	+29
Luxembourg	10.8	−0.53	−0.42	−0.48	−0.26	−0.73	−0.38	−0.25	−0.22	−0.79	−0.23	−0.16	−0.75	−0.65	−0.80	+7	+34	+1	+25	−4	+2	+29	−4	+4	+36
South Africa	10.8	−0.35	−0.38	−0.53	−0.51	−0.48	−0.16	−0.49	−0.22	−0.66	−0.36	−0.41	−0.73	−0.57	−0.60	−5	+36	+28	+22	+18	+31	+22	+26	+23	+24
Lithuania	10.7	−0.53	−0.47	−0.56	−0.34	−0.62	−0.56	−0.21	−0.24	−0.75	−0.26	−0.13	−0.61	−0.63	−0.75	+6	+30	+5	+19	0	−1	+26	−2	+6	+39
Thailand	10.7	−0.64	−0.50	−0.62	−0.36	−0.55	−0.29	−0.22	−0.23	−0.58	−0.28	−0.21	−0.60	−0.68	−0.69	+8	+31	−2	+19	+7	+13	+29	−4	+10	+34
Chile	10.6	−0.47	−0.33	−0.39	−0.34	−0.40	−0.19	−0.40	−0.18	−0.59	−0.41	−0.15	−0.85	−0.56	−0.69	−2	+34	+3	+21	+6	+13	+18	−0	+13	+26
Greece	10.6	−0.47	−0.37	−0.68	−0.56	−0.51	−0.35	−0.31	−0.25	−0.73	−0.34	−0.13	−0.66	−0.70	−0.80	−4	+30	−13	+16	+3	+1	+27	−2	+3	+35
Hungary	10.5	−0.56	−0.46	−0.71	−0.46	−0.57	−0.39	−0.31	−0.32	−0.64	−0.37	−0.13	−0.65	−0.64	−0.78	+5	+42	+4	+21	−1	−0	+31	−0	+2	+41
Slovenia	10.5	−0.56	−0.51	−0.69	−0.49	−0.65	−0.37	−0.21	−0.21	−0.77	−0.30	−0.11	−0.60	−0.61	−0.75	+8	+38	−5	+18	+1	−4	+27	−2	+3	+37
Romania	10.2	−0.41	−0.41	−0.57	−0.34	−0.35	−0.38	−0.34	−0.35	−0.48	−0.30	−0.14	−0.57	−0.68	−0.70	−2	+27	−10	+9	−3	−3	+24	−2	+4	+30
Slovakia	10.1	−0.60	−0.50	−0.68	−0.49	−0.63	−0.40	−0.29	−0.35	−0.73	−0.22	−0.14	−0.60	−0.66	−0.76	+1	+38	−4	+19	+2	−3	+29	−2	+3	+31
Indonesia	10.0	−0.41	−0.41	−0.42	−0.36	−0.29	−0.24	−0.34	−0.11	−0.36	−0.58	−0.24	−0.58	−0.62	−0.57	−1	−26	+4	+8	+8	+17	−6	+7	+14	+23
Latvia	9.9	−0.54	−0.47	−0.58	−0.34	−0.64	−0.59	−0.22	−0.26	−0.80	−0.18	−0.11	−0.65	−0.66	−0.80	+2	+30	−4	+15	0	+0	+27	−3	+5	+31
Vietnam	9.7	−0.79	−0.54	−0.75	−0.58	−0.51	−0.25	−0.36	−0.09	−0.51	−0.39	−0.24	−0.52	−0.60	−0.68	+4	+25	0	+10	+10	+20	+22	−6	+9	+28
Iceland	9.6	−0.50	−0.42	−0.61	−0.35	−0.61	−0.42	−0.24	−0.22	−0.78	−0.30	−0.09	−0.79	−0.62	−0.74	+8	+36	+1	+12	−4	+1	+28	−5	+5	+34
Croatia	9.5	−0.52	−0.44	−0.67	−0.52	−0.54	−0.37	−0.28	−0.24	−0.69	−0.28	−0.10	−0.63	−0.67	−0.78	−4	+30	−12	+11	+0	−4	+25	−4	+1	+28
Ukraine	9.4	−0.37	−0.29	−0.56	−0.52	−0.35	−0.40	−0.31	−0.12	−0.42	−0.32	−0.25	−0.57	−0.58	−0.62	−14	+22	−8	−19	+8	+5	+4	−37	+2	+16
Qatar	9.4	−0.40	−0.35	−0.42	−0.27	−0.34	−0.26	−0.20	−0.17	−0.15	−0.22	−0.40	−0.82	−0.56	−0.55	+2	−37	+18	+14	−3	−12	+7	+4	−11	+20
Morocco	9.4	−0.35	−0.44	−0.65	−0.60	−0.56	−0.18	−0.50	−0.20	−0.76	−0.52	−0.42	−0.81	−0.64	−0.71	−10	+36	+11	+16	+15	+30	+25	+20	+10	+19
Argentina	9.2	−0.26	−0.26	−0.57	−0.66	−0.08	−0.19	−0.51	−0.19	−0.18	−0.53	−0.49	−0.88	−0.57	−0.69	−8	+3	−0	−1	+6	+14	−1	−13	+9	+25
Colombia	9.1	−0.33	−0.26	−0.52	−0.50	−0.08	−0.20	−0.48	−0.30	−0.19	−0.49	−0.19	−0.85	−0.58	−0.68	−13	−40	−1	+4	+8	+17	−21	−3	+8	+19
Egypt	9.0	−0.22	−0.26	−0.51	−0.59	−0.29	−0.31	−0.55	−0.49	−0.21	−0.44	−0.68	−0.55	−0.56	−0.40	−11	−5	+11	+2	+3	+16	+30	+26	−2	+13
Serbia	9.0	−0.56	−0.47	−0.74	−0.38	−0.62	−0.39	−0.36	−0.24	−0.75	−0.29	−0.12	−0.64	−0.69	−0.77	−8	+30	−9	+9	−3	−1	+24	−2	+1	+28
Bulgaria	9.0	−0.55	−0.47	−0.59	−0.19	−0.60	−0.38	−0.27	−0.27	−0.76	−0.34	−0.19	−0.67	−0.70	−0.86	−6	+26	−11	+9	−6	−5	+20	−4	+0	+30
Malta	8.9	−0.64	−0.46	−0.67	−0.44	−0.77	−0.43	−0.22	−0.25	−0.85	−0.25	−0.24	−0.82	−0.72	−0.94	−0	+17	−12	+19	−3	−3	+19	−5	−1	+32
Philippines	8.8	−0.57	−0.45	−0.50	−0.36	−0.54	−0.26	−0.34	−0.11	−0.69	−0.58	−0.29	−0.63	−0.75	−0.58	−9	+27	+4	+7	+7	+23	+23	+4	+11	+17
Peru	8.6	−0.46	−0.36	−0.43	−0.36	−0.17	−0.19	−0.41	−0.28	−0.30	−0.58	−0.20	−0.89	−0.60	−0.71	−10	−12	+3	+10	+4	+16	−8	−2	+6	+16
Uruguay	8.5	−0.39	−0.26	−0.56	−0.43	−0.51	−0.21	−0.43	−0.24	−0.71	−0.39	−0.18	−0.96	−0.61	−0.78	−10	+26	−3	+5	+5	+14	+14	−20	+8	+21
Cyprus	8.5	−0.63	−0.48	−0.78	−0.55	−0.76	−0.43	−0.28	−0.29	−0.86	−0.34	−0.23	−0.74	−0.76	−0.84	−9	+17	−10	+12	−2	−3	+19	−7	−1	+24
Iran	8.2	−0.45	−0.29	−0.47	−0.53	−0.28	−0.31	−0.54	−0.57	−0.15	−0.48	−0.76	−0.66	−0.60	−0.55	−12	−22	+3	+1	−1	+6	+13	+25	−6	+22
Kazakhstan	8.1	−0.35	−0.36	−0.36	−0.28	−0.12	−0.55	−0.38	−0.18	−0.14	−0.32	−0.29	−0.69	−0.64	−0.55	−14	−46	−4	+7	+0	+1	−31	−23	−10	+5
Mauritius	8.1	−0.46	−0.46	−0.63	−0.41	−0.73	−0.20	−0.41	−0.16	−0.88	−0.32	−0.36	−0.75	−0.59	−0.71	−10	+22	+2	+14	+7	+13	+17	+12	+6	+13
Oman	8.0	−0.62	−0.39	−0.54	−0.45	−0.36	−0.33	−0.41	−0.28	−0.16	−0.27	−0.45	−0.81	−0.60	−0.67	−9	−45	+8	+17	+0	+3	+1	+6	−6	+14
Pakistan	8.0	−0.31	−0.26	−0.48	−0.84	−0.48	−0.23	−0.57	−0.43	−0.64	−0.51	−0.67	−0.55	−0.61	−0.54	−26	+18	+6	−7	+17	+28	+18	+22	+7	+8
Costa Rica	7.8	−0.54	−0.32	−0.62	−0.51	−0.56	−0.21	−0.37	−0.29	−0.76	−0.58	−0.21	−0.92	−0.65	−0.76	−12	+23	−7	+11	+6	+12	+10	−6	+7	+18
Tunisia	7.7	−0.38	−0.46	−0.73	−0.70	−0.52	−0.22	−0.61	−0.34	−0.71	−0.54	−0.48	−0.85	−0.60	−0.77	−18	+10	+3	+10	+13	+20	+10	+17	+7	+17
Georgia	7.5	−0.47	−0.38	−0.57	−0.48	−0.61	−0.55	−0.35	−0.20	−0.67	−0.31	−0.24	−0.70	−0.64	−0.70	−22	+18	−14	+7	+7	+5	+7	−17	−5	+5
Kuwait	7.5	−0.53	−0.41	−0.41	−0.21	−0.38	−0.34	−0.42	−0.31	−0.17	−0.25	−0.49	−0.89	−0.67	−0.69	−14	−51	+7	+6	−3	−7	−5	+4	−9	+13
Jordan	7.5	−0.57	−0.34	−0.70	−0.55	−0.78	−0.36	−0.48	−0.55	−0.68	−0.49	−0.52	−0.84	−0.67	−0.68	−20	+22	+8	+10	+8	+19	+41	+10	+1	+15
Nigeria	7.4	−0.34	−0.49	−0.50	−0.45	−0.22	−0.17	−0.53	−0.37	−0.34	−0.45	−0.73	−0.70	−0.50	−0.62	−13	−51	+16	+8	+8	+22	−24	+22	+7	+5
Bahrain	7.3	−0.57	−0.46	−0.70	−0.67	−0.43	−0.31	−0.29	−0.19	−0.17	−0.28	−0.48	−0.84	−0.62	−0.75	−7	−46	+3	+7	−1	−8	−4	+3	−11	+12
Sri Lanka	7.3	−0.33	−0.34	−0.52	−0.78	−0.70	−0.26	−0.47	−0.18	−0.93	−0.34	−0.42	−0.61	−0.68	−0.55	−27	+26	−11	−6	+14	+21	+25	+12	+2	+9
Liechtenstein	7.2	−0.89	−0.61	−0.79	−0.17	−0.53	−0.44	−0.23	−0.26	−0.90	−0.14	−0.12	−0.57	−0.63	−0.67	−4	+21	−17	+16	−8	−19	+9	−8	−3	+12
Kenya	7.2	−0.23	−0.35	−0.54	−0.66	−0.59	−0.22	−0.52	−0.55	−0.89	−0.45	−0.86	−0.60	−0.50	−0.47	−17	+24	+17	+5	+16	+27	+22	+27	+10	+3
Panama	7.2	−0.48	−0.40	−0.61	−0.58	−0.57	−0.20	−0.46	−0.24	−0.79	−0.32	−0.21	−0.86	−0.65	−0.77	−19	+13	−11	+7	+4	+6	+8	−9	+1	+13
Ghana	7.0	−0.35	−0.51	−0.69	−0.85	−0.23	−0.23	−0.48	−0.35	−0.34	−0.37	−0.51	−0.83	−0.57	−0.68	−9	−40	+11	+8	+23	+23	−17	+14	+8	+8
Algeria	7.0	−0.27	−0.49	−0.49	−0.40	−0.18	−0.26	−0.67	−0.49	−0.34	−0.59	−0.84	−0.90	−0.61	−0.71	−21	−53	+2	+3	+3	+9	−23	+23	−2	+9
Belarus	6.9	−0.74	−0.48	−0.65	−0.57	−0.55	−0.15	−0.42	−0.30	−0.61	−0.23	−0.27	−0.77	−0.62	−0.81	−16	+19	−15	+6	+1	−6	+2	−19	−19	+10
Dominican Republic	6.8	−0.56	−0.38	−0.52	−0.53	−0.54	−0.26	−0.48	−0.31	−0.82	−0.56	−0.34	−0.96	−0.66	−0.78	−17	+19	−6	+4	+5	+6	+12	−10	+1	+9
Azerbaijan	6.8	−0.39	−0.46	−0.43	−0.37	−0.17	−0.55	−0.40	−0.16	−0.16	−0.26	−0.31	−0.71	−0.61	−0.63	−21	−55	−16	+0	+1	−5	−36	−21	−17	−2
Ecuador	6.8	−0.52	−0.37	−0.64	−0.75	−0.13	−0.20	−0.45	−0.25	−0.23	−0.63	−0.25	−0.88	−0.64	−0.75	−18	−54	−10	+0	+10	+11	−33	−9	+1	+11
Bangladesh	6.7	−0.29	−0.38	−0.35	−0.66	−0.56	−0.29	−0.57	−0.41	−0.76	−0.45	−0.40	−0.67	−0.66	−0.59	−27	+22	−6	−9	+10	+19	+22	+14	−1	+9
Trinidad & Tobago	6.7	−0.55	−0.43	−0.60	−0.45	−0.17	−0.22	−0.39	−0.30	−0.24	−0.38	−0.32	−0.86	−0.65	−0.77	−16	−49	−16	+1	+2	−3	−30	−12	−1	+9
Armenia	6.7	−0.65	−0.48	−0.68	−0.59	−0.67	−0.29	−0.35	−0.27	−0.71	−0.39	−0.33	−0.71	−0.64	−0.78	−24	+17	−22	+5	+8	+0	+2	−20	−10	+1
North Macedonia	6.6	−0.66	−0.55	−0.75	−0.38	−0.74	−0.43	−0.39	−0.28	−0.92	−0.32	−0.22	−0.72	−0.76	−0.89	−20	+21	−21	+2	−5	−5	+20	−7	−2	+16
Senegal	6.4	−0.37	−0.51	−0.63	−0.73	−0.59	−0.22	−0.42	−0.37	−0.85	−0.43	−0.79	−0.78	−0.59	−0.63	−12	+6	+15	+6	+20	+23	+10	+24	+4	+5
Montenegro	6.3	−0.65	−0.48	−0.87	−0.54	−0.73	−0.44	−0.39	−0.32	−0.91	−0.34	−0.14	−0.77	−0.79	−0.91	−21	+20	−25	−2	−4	−1	+19	−9	−2	+16
Moldova	6.3	−0.44	−0.35	−0.55	−0.40	−0.63	−0.33	−0.25	−0.38	−0.72	−0.21	−0.30	−0.66	−0.65	−0.63	−17	+6	−18	+0	+3	+4	−2	−20	−9	−1
Jamaica	6.2	−0.59	−0.34	−0.78	−0.71	−0.59	−0.21	−0.50	−0.25	−0.76	−0.41	−0.33	−0.88	−0.67	−0.78	−20	+1	−14	−1	+13	+14	0	−11	+2	+9
Albania	6.1	−0.51	−0.48	−0.74	−0.47	−0.41	−0.44	−0.38	−0.26	−0.54	−0.50	−0.17	−0.75	−0.73	−0.82	−21	+3	−27	−4	−3	−4	+9	−9	−3	+11
Botswana	6.1	−0.37	−0.52	−0.51	−0.42	−0.69	−0.21	−0.54	−0.21	−0.94	−0.36	−0.43	−0.94	−0.67	−0.76	−22	+16	+4	+5	+8	+5	+11	+7	+1	+4
Namibia	6.0	−0.56	−0.60	−0.62	−0.51	−0.76	−0.19	−0.58	−0.26	−0.94	−0.35	−0.39	−0.83	−0.60	−0.75	−22	+15	+10	+9	+11	+15	+11	+9	+2	+3
Cuba	5.9	−0.42	−0.35	−0.65	−0.74	−0.28	−0.18	−0.51	−0.17	−0.52	−0.46	−0.65	−0.93	−0.69	−0.69	−24	+10	−19	−11	+1	−4	+1	−3	−8	+22
Rwanda	5.9	−0.41	−0.47	−0.59	−0.61	−0.68	−0.18	−0.55	−0.41	−0.94	−0.34	−0.75	−0.58	−0.48	−0.49	−21	+17	+19	+5	+16	+22	+14	+19	+5	+3
Uzbekistan	5.9	−0.37	−0.41	−0.39	−0.31	−0.26	−0.36	−0.49	−0.27	−0.31	−0.49	−0.40	−0.72	−0.64	−0.56	−22	+6	−12	−1	−0	+6	−4	−19	−17	−6
Monaco	5.9	−1.00	−0.42	−0.97	−0.19	−0.55	−0.45	−0.30	−0.19	−0.75	−0.23	−0.11	−0.86	−0.82	−1.01	−22	+16	−28	+4	−10	−13	+10	−12	−7	+21
Tanzania	5.8	−0.26	−0.48	−0.48	−0.68	−0.47	−0.19	−0.50	−0.41	−0.74	−0.49	−0.63	−0.64	−0.41	−0.54	−10	−2	+11	+2	+16	+24	+4	+14	+1	−0
Bosnia & Herzegovina	5.8	−0.63	−0.53	−0.75	−0.34	−0.75	−0.46	−0.36	−0.22	−0.95	−0.34	−0.16	−0.70	−0.78	−0.88	−26	+20	−34	−5	−8	−7	+16	−9	−5	+12
Paraguay	5.8	−0.40	−0.47	−0.56	−0.45	−0.60	−0.21	−0.52	−0.25	−0.84	−0.39	−0.22	−0.89	−0.62	−0.80	−20	+15	−18	−8	+3	+3	+7	−38	−3	+7
Mongolia	5.7	−0.95	−0.64	−0.85	−0.62	−0.70	−0.29	−0.40	−0.11	−0.74	−0.41	−0.30	−0.77	−0.72	−0.85	−17	−3	−6	−4	+8	−0	+6	−7	+2	+13
Ethiopia	5.7	−0.32	−0.46	−0.48	−0.77	−0.62	−0.20	−0.59	−0.59	−0.98	−0.54	−0.73	−0.55	−0.42	−0.48	−16	+17	+10	+4	+14	+24	+16	+15	−1	−2
El Salvador	5.7	−0.61	−0.39	−0.89	−0.96	−0.62	−0.20	−0.45	−0.20	−0.83	−0.63	−0.33	−0.90	−0.64	−0.86	−21	+15	−14	−2	+11	+12	+8	−12	−3	+8
Guatemala	5.7	−0.43	−0.31	−0.53	−0.47	−0.53	−0.18	−0.49	−0.23	−0.79	−0.62	−0.33	−0.79	−0.63	−0.67	−21	+15	−7	−5	+2	+13	+7	−12	−2	+3
Brunei	5.6	−0.73	−0.64	−0.62	−0.28	−0.45	−0.34	−0.42	−0.14	−0.39	−0.60	−0.25	−0.83	−0.71	−0.88	−19	−53	−14	−12	−2	−23	−23	−11	−7	+12
Barbados	5.6	−0.42	−0.26	−0.77	−0.66	−0.48	−0.21	−0.42	−0.18	−0.65	−0.37	−0.40	−0.74	−0.66	−0.66	−25	−1	−22	−9	+7	+7	−3	−15	−3	+4
Uganda	5.5	−0.31	−0.48	−0.59	−0.80	−0.65	−0.21	−0.54	−0.62	−0.98	−0.57	−0.68	−0.56	−0.43	−0.49	−16	+10	+17	+2	+20	+24	+12	+15	+0	−1
Côte d'Ivoire	5.4	−0.28	−0.42	−0.58	−0.74	−0.40	−0.25	−0.51	−0.55	−0.60	−0.40	−0.61	−0.74	−0.56	−0.61	−18	+2	+11	+2	+13	+19	+7	+10	−3	−2
Seychelles	5.3	−0.58	−0.48	−0.88	−0.67	−0.81	−0.22	−0.41	−0.24	−0.93	−0.44	−0.41	−0.87	−0.65	−0.85	−19	+12	−9	+6	+7	+6	+10	+4	−4	+5
Bahamas	5.2	−0.60	−0.29	−0.77	−0.69	−0.63	−0.23	−0.44	−0.20	−0.81	−0.52	−0.36	−0.98	−0.72	−0.85	−27	−4	−16	−8	+4	+5	−3	−18	−5	+5
Fiji	5.2	−0.74	−0.45	−0.78	−0.53	−0.87	−0.31	−0.41	−0.13	−0.95	−0.32	−0.26	−0.72	−0.76	−0.83	−25	+7	−18	−9	+5	+10	+12	−8	−1	+8
Andorra	5.2	−0.77	−0.44	−0.78	−0.28	−0.61	−0.41	−0.26	−0.21	−0.75	−0.21	−0.20	−0.78	−0.73	−0.91	−20	+13	−26	−7	−9	−13	+7	−13	−6	+14
Bolivia	5.1	−0.36	−0.35	−0.65	−0.84	−0.14	−0.20	−0.49	−0.22	−0.23	−0.48	−0.26	−0.91	−0.63	−0.77	−19	−49	−14	−12	+10	+8	−31	−15	−4	+3
Honduras	5.0	−0.64	−0.43	−0.68	−0.67	−0.61	−0.19	−0.57	−0.21	−0.88	−0.68	−0.32	−0.84	−0.64	−0.78	−27	+14	−10	−4	+6	+12	+5	−14	−5	+3
San Marino	5.0	−0.74	−0.60	−0.94	−0.56	−0.66	−0.41	−0.21	−0.22	−0.94	−0.34	−0.12	−0.82	−0.65	−0.98	−16	+13	−31	−6	−9	−31	+7	−12	−6	+14
Nepal	5.0	−0.38	−0.26	−0.47	−0.56	−0.80	−0.28	−0.59	−0.25	−0.95	−0.43	−0.45	−0.68	−0.74	−0.59	−37	+17	−10	−14	+7	+18	+16	+6	−3	+2
Zambia	4.9	−0.50	−0.60	−0.83	−0.87	−0.72	−0.20	−0.58	−0.44	−0.99	−0.50	−0.51	−0.69	−0.54	−0.68	−23	+16	+12	+5	+18	+19	+13	+8	−2	−1
Cambodia	4.9	−0.89	−0.68	−0.82	−0.51	−0.94	−0.30	−0.35	−0.12	−1.05	−0.43	−0.28	−0.55	−0.67	−0.75	−16	+16	−12	−5	+3	+9	+17	−7	−4	+6
Kyrgyzstan	4.8	−0.42	−0.42	−0.57	−0.54	−0.56	−0.32	−0.43	−0.22	−0.68	−0.42	−0.37	−0.69	−0.68	−0.58	−24	−8	−17	−5	+5	+6	−12	−24	−16	−11
Cabo Verde	4.7	−0.46	−0.43	−0.91	−0.75	−0.75	−0.20	−0.47	−0.26	−0.94	−0.57	−0.56	−0.88	−0.66	−0.80	−28	−1	−7	+1	+13	+13	+2	+4	−1	+1
Kosovo	4.7	−0.64	−0.60	−0.70	−0.47	−0.78	−0.46	−0.34	−0.28	−1.01	−0.47	−0.18	−0.83	−0.77	−0.93	−22	+15	−23	−9	−7	−8	+14	−11	−5	+9
Iraq	4.7	−0.61	−0.42	−0.48	−0.35	−0.38	−0.36	−0.59	−0.47	−0.19	−0.35	−0.55	−0.82	−0.68	−0.62	−29	−69	+2	−4	−4	−1	−27	+3	−12	+3
Lebanon	4.7	−0.67	−0.30	−1.01	−0.69	−0.99	−0.37	−0.52	−0.55	−0.78	−0.45	−0.57	−0.91	−0.65	−0.93	−25	+11	−21	−4	−2	+10	+20	+5	−12	+12
Maldives	4.6	−0.58	−0.36	−0.82	−0.86	−0.93	−0.32	−0.48	−0.26	−0.95	−0.33	−0.56	−0.81	−0.83	−0.77	−37	−1	−9	−10	+7	+13	+7	+3	−8	+5
Angola	4.6	−0.59	−0.58	−0.78	−0.73	−0.26	−0.22	−0.77	−0.43	−0.39	−0.46	−0.82	−0.83	−0.53	−0.74	−29	−65	+10	+6	+8	+7	−33	+9	−9	−4
Venezuela	4.6	−0.76	−0.42	−0.79	−0.72	−0.17	−0.18	−0.66	−0.29	−0.21	−0.60	−0.65	−0.99	−0.68	−0.98	−25	−73	−22	−12	+0	+11	−46	−8	−8	+8
Guyana	4.5	−0.58	−0.52	−0.73	−0.76	−0.23	−0.27	−0.55	−0.36	−0.29	−0.37	−0.23	−0.78	−0.51	−0.73	−20	−64	−18	−9	−2	−26	−38	−20	−10	+1
Cameroon	4.4	−0.28	−0.47	−0.52	−0.63	−0.21	−0.21	−0.61	−0.50	−0.38	−0.42	−0.76	−0.79	−0.56	−0.64	−22	−65	+7	−1	+6	+16	−35	+11	−10	−4
Nicaragua	4.4	−0.76	−0.48	−0.73	−0.59	−0.66	−0.19	−0.59	−0.28	−0.87	−0.68	−0.28	−0.83	−0.58	−0.83	−25	+11	−13	−6	+2	+7	+4	−16	−9	+3
Antigua & Barbuda	4.4	−0.56	−0.39	−0.93	−0.82	−0.67	−0.21	−0.53	−0.20	−0.84	−0.43	−0.43	−0.72	−0.66	−0.74	−28	−7	−24	−12	+4	−1	−6	−19	−7	+1
Zimbabwe	4.3	−0.37	−0.55	−0.77	−1.09	−0.65	−0.16	−0.69	−0.29	−1.02	−0.46	−0.78	−0.69	−0.57	−0.58	−28	+14	+5	+0	+14	+17	+7	+11	−7	−3
North Korea	4.3	−1.10	−0.77	−1.15	−0.92	−0.87	−0.11	−0.40	−0.19	−0.97	−0.72	−0.50	−0.66	−1.09	−0.95	−27	+16	−34	−26	−2	+10	+11	−8	−12	+11
Mozambique	4.1	−0.53	−0.53	−0.88	−0.94	−0.31	−0.14	−0.59	−0.28	−0.36	−0.60	−0.62	−0.64	−0.45	−0.68	−21	−67	+9	+3	+16	+21	−38	+9	−7	−3
Benin	4.1	−0.32	−0.41	−0.64	−0.82	−0.71	−0.25	−0.48	−0.56	−1.00	−0.33	−0.95	−0.72	−0.51	−0.61	−19	+11	+9	−1	+14	+15	+9	+10	−6	−5
Togo	4.1	−0.25	−0.41	−0.71	−1.03	−0.68	−0.20	−0.52	−0.46	−1.00	−0.39	−0.93	−0.71	−0.54	−0.63	−22	−3	−4	−2	+17	+18	+1	+10	−8	−5
Grenada	4.0	−0.66	−0.36	−0.96	−0.79	−0.68	−0.20	−0.46	−0.27	−0.84	−0.47	−0.60	−0.76	−0.65	−0.81	−29	+8	−28	−11	+6	+4	+2	−16	−8	+2
Suriname	4.0	−0.55	−0.52	−0.94	−0.71	−0.33	−0.22	−0.59	−0.31	−0.40	−0.43	−0.24	−0.90	−0.61	−0.88	−29	−8	−17	−13	+3	−9	−9	−19	−9	+2
Belize	4.0	−0.59	−0.33	−0.91	−0.90	−0.60	−0.21	−0.53	−0.30	−0.75	−0.51	−0.26	−0.80	−0.64	−0.74	−30	+2	−12	−12	+9	+7	−2	−19	−6	0
Tajikistan	4.0	−0.43	−0.45	−0.50	−0.58	−0.59	−0.33	−0.62	−0.34	−0.80	−0.42	−0.60	−0.55	−0.53	−0.45	−34	+8	−9	−7	+3	+6	−3	−24	−22	−16
Gabon	3.9	−0.61	−0.63	−0.84	−0.86	−0.32	−0.21	−0.67	−0.24	−0.41	−0.41	−0.42	−1.00	−0.58	−0.91	−29	−67	−3	+4	+4	−6	−37	+3	−13	−1
Bhutan	3.9	−0.42	−0.44	−0.72	−0.72	−0.84	−0.32	−0.47	−0.26	−1.00	−0.31	−0.36	−0.83	−0.77	−0.71	−32	+11	−12	−16	+8	+2	+13	+2	−8	+1
Madagascar	3.9	−0.47	−0.48	−0.66	−0.72	−0.72	−0.14	−0.58	−0.23	−1.01	−0.59	−0.84	−0.65	−0.49	−0.66	−22	+10	+1	+2	+10	+17	+6	+13	−8	−4
Myanmar	3.9	−0.67	−0.61	−0.66	−0.62	−0.38	−0.30	−0.51	−0.19	−0.42	−0.78	−0.29	−0.60	−0.73	−0.72	−31	−55	−24	−22	+1	+4	−28	−9	−9	+4
Dominica	3.9	−0.43	−0.31	−0.82	−0.77	−0.62	−0.22	−0.47	−0.21	−0.83	−0.59	−0.37	−0.91	−0.64	−0.87	−26	+8	−28	−15	+5	+3	+1	−20	−7	+2
Saint Lucia	3.9	−0.58	−0.33	−0.92	−0.80	−0.67	−0.20	−0.47	−0.21	−0.83	−0.44	−0.54	−0.69	−0.69	−0.76	−38	−9	−33	−13	+4	+2	−8	−18	−9	+1
Saint Kitts & Nevis	3.8	−0.61	−0.40	−0.88	−0.70	−0.67	−0.21	−0.51	−0.22	−0.87	−0.47	−0.56	−0.75	−0.66	−0.78	−30	+8	−28	−13	+2	−5	+2	−19	−10	+1
Papua New Guinea	3.8	−0.61	−0.55	−0.70	−0.59	−0.39	−0.25	−0.34	−0.21	−0.40	−0.56	−0.52	−0.39	−0.60	−0.58	−25	−68	−10	−20	+4	+8	−34	−7	−5	+1
Malawi	3.8	−0.34	−0.41	−0.70	−0.96	−0.70	−0.13	−0.56	−0.31	−1.00	−0.59	−0.62	−0.55	−0.47	−0.55	−23	+9	+0	−2	+17	+18	+6	+7	−7	−5
Saint Vincent & Grenadines	3.8	−0.50	−0.33	−0.89	−0.75	−0.64	−0.21	−0.54	−0.28	−0.84	−0.50	−0.74	−0.83	−0.67	−0.82	−37	+8	−29	−15	+4	+1	+2	−16	−9	+1
Palestine	3.7	−0.44	−0.27	−0.56	−0.68	−0.89	−0.33	−0.63	−0.30	−0.80	−0.35	−0.97	−0.89	−0.71	−0.65	−34	+8	+3	−9	+3	+11	+11	+7	−12	+2
Eswatini	3.7	−0.45	−0.59	−0.72	−0.74	−0.76	−0.19	−0.66	−0.31	−1.04	−0.35	−0.51	−0.69	−0.58	−0.65	−35	+10	+0	+1	+6	+4	+6	+4	−12	−5
Laos	3.7	−0.88	−0.60	−0.91	−0.79	−0.93	−0.34	−0.44	−0.38	−1.03	−0.47	−0.51	−0.61	−0.72	−0.77	−23	+12	−15	−16	+4	+3	+15	−7	−9	+4
Sierra Leone	3.6	−0.60	−0.49	−0.67	−0.88	−0.68	−0.14	−0.54	−0.30	−1.04	−0.34	−0.84	−0.65	−0.47	−0.59	−21	+8	+9	+3	+14	+12	+6	+9	−8	−6
Mauritania	3.6	−0.58	−0.57	−0.92	−0.94	−0.74	−0.21	−0.66	−0.55	−1.02	−0.43	−0.93	−0.77	−0.52	−0.80	−32	+10	−6	+2	+9	+6	+7	+9	−13	−5
Turkmenistan	3.6	−0.57	−0.40	−0.38	−0.47	−0.11	−0.30	−0.51	−0.33	−0.19	−0.57	−0.58	−0.54	−0.49	−0.55	−36	−74	−25	−7	−3	−12	−51	−27	−29	−17
Samoa	3.5	−0.61	−0.41	−0.83	−0.51	−0.84	−0.28	−0.36	−0.17	−0.95	−0.45	−0.71	−0.49	−0.77	−0.65	−35	−9	−21	−22	+3	+7	+2	−9	−5	+2
Burkina Faso	3.5	−0.32	−0.54	−0.70	−0.96	−0.72	−0.22	−0.60	−0.59	−1.06	−0.38	−0.65	−0.60	−0.44	−0.59	−24	+8	+4	−3	+14	+14	+7	+5	−11	−6
Lesotho	3.4	−0.65	−0.61	−0.74	−0.58	−0.80	−0.17	−0.63	−0.26	−1.04	−0.37	−0.57	−0.68	−0.54	−0.76	−31	+7	−8	+2	+6	+12	+5	+4	−11	−5
Mali	3.4	−0.32	−0.46	−0.60	−0.77	−0.70	−0.25	−0.57	−0.63	−1.02	−0.50	−0.55	−0.72	−0.49	−0.64	−21	+8	+5	−3	+8	+13	+7	+4	−13	−6
Gambia	3.3	−0.48	−0.47	−0.94	−0.94	−0.79	−0.17	−0.58	−0.31	−1.01	−0.44	−0.68	−0.81	−0.58	−0.80	−28	−1	+1	−1	+13	+12	−1	+6	−9	−3
Tonga	3.2	−0.72	−0.45	−0.82	−0.47	−0.88	−0.29	−0.36	−0.17	−0.97	−0.62	−0.65	−0.53	−0.70	−0.71	−27	−10	−24	−24	+1	+5	−1	−11	−6	+3
Djibouti	3.2	−0.64	−0.52	−0.91	−0.85	−0.86	−0.28	−0.68	−0.70	−1.03	−0.79	−0.92	−0.92	−0.73	−0.95	−47	+8	−6	+1	+5	+8	+8	+4	−15	−5
Congo	3.2	−0.64	−0.59	−0.90	−1.10	−0.30	−0.26	−0.73	−0.67	−0.42	−0.49	−0.74	−0.81	−0.53	−0.81	−36	−72	−8	+2	+8	+4	−39	+5	−15	−6
Guinea	3.1	−0.61	−0.52	−0.73	−0.85	−0.74	−0.20	−0.64	−0.41	−1.03	−0.34	−0.80	−0.66	−0.46	−0.69	−24	−1	−3	+1	+7	+11	+1	+6	−14	−6
Niger	3.1	−0.32	−0.38	−0.58	−0.88	−0.34	−0.23	−0.60	−0.68	−0.53	−0.37	−1.02	−0.57	−0.50	−0.47	−23	−3	+6	−4	+9	+12	−1	+7	−13	−9
Libya	3.0	−0.67	−0.72	−0.82	−0.45	−0.39	−0.34	−0.74	−0.73	−0.44	−0.43	−0.67	−1.07	−0.67	−1.01	−34	−75	−9	−2	−2	−7	−43	+2	−18	−3
Timor-Leste	3.0	−0.75	−0.48	−0.64	−0.41	−0.44	−0.26	−0.34	−0.18	−0.38	−0.74	−0.71	−0.49	−0.68	−0.66	−30	−71	−17	−23	+0	+6	−35	−11	−6	+0
Liberia	2.9	−0.36	−0.48	−0.63	−0.76	−0.73	−0.14	−0.53	−0.28	−1.04	−0.37	−0.68	−0.70	−0.46	−0.69	−21	+1	+2	−3	+8	+13	+1	+5	−11	−7
Vanuatu	2.9	−0.53	−0.36	−0.81	−0.62	−0.82	−0.27	−0.45	−0.18	−0.97	−0.68	−0.48	−0.49	−0.71	−0.61	−36	+7	−18	−26	+3	+10	+9	−11	−6	+1
Solomon Islands	2.9	−0.85	−0.46	−0.65	−0.40	−0.86	−0.27	−0.37	−0.18	−1.00	−0.68	−0.29	−0.49	−0.65	−0.66	−26	+7	−19	−22	+0	+10	+8	−12	−7	+1
DR Congo	2.9	−0.80	−0.64	−0.69	−0.85	−0.54	−0.25	−0.68	−0.66	−0.73	−0.60	−0.54	−0.72	−0.46	−0.73	−23	−2	+7	+2	+5	+13	−1	+3	−16	−6
São Tomé & Príncipe	2.9	−0.25	−0.31	−0.79	−1.00	−0.66	−0.19	−0.54	−0.29	−0.97	−0.47	−0.72	−0.89	−0.69	−0.68	−33	−12	+2	−5	+12	+9	−7	+3	−13	−7
Palau	2.8	−0.60	−0.40	−0.96	−0.82	−0.76	−0.24	−0.31	−0.17	−0.82	−0.52	−0.30	−0.64	−0.70	−0.92	−43	−9	−33	−26	+3	−1	−3	−14	−9	+3
Equatorial Guinea	2.8	−0.48	−0.56	−0.69	−0.70	−0.27	−0.20	−0.69	−0.23	−0.43	−0.57	−0.80	−0.90	−0.62	−0.80	−34	−73	−12	−2	−1	−9	−42	+3	−21	−7
Sudan	2.6	−0.36	−0.47	−0.84	−1.21	−0.45	−0.25	−0.77	−0.71	−0.70	−0.43	−1.08	−0.68	−0.57	−0.60	−36	−16	0	−5	+5	+9	−10	+7	−19	−9
Burundi	2.5	−0.48	−0.41	−0.80	−1.01	−0.76	−0.17	−0.59	−0.51	−0.99	−0.48	−0.67	−0.50	−0.45	−0.59	−25	+5	−3	−3	+10	+12	+3	+0	−17	−9
Marshall Islands	2.5	−0.66	−0.45	−0.91	−0.64	−0.83	−0.29	−0.46	−0.18	−0.83	−0.53	−0.35	−0.76	−0.81	−0.92	−44	−14	−23	−26	+1	+4	−5	−15	−10	+2
Micronesia	2.3	−0.70	−0.41	−0.81	−0.41	−0.84	−0.26	−0.44	−0.18	−0.95	−0.43	−0.85	−0.47	−0.73	−0.70	−44	+6	−23	−28	−2	+6	+8	−12	−9	+0
Comoros	2.3	−0.28	−0.34	−0.56	−0.60	−0.66	−0.16	−0.50	−0.23	−0.97	−0.53	−0.99	−0.64	−0.53	−0.59	−30	+5	−12	−6	+2	+8	+1	+2	−18	−9
Chad	2.3	−0.38	−0.50	−0.66	−0.92	−0.25	−0.22	−0.60	−0.75	−0.42	−0.40	−0.63	−0.56	−0.39	−0.52	−20	−78	+2	−5	+6	+6	−45	−1	−20	−11
Syria	2.2	−0.29	−0.17	−0.67	−0.94	−0.50	−0.32	−0.65	−0.47	−0.28	−0.36	−0.92	−0.62	−0.55	−0.58	−41	+0	−12	−16	−5	+5	+6	+2	−23	−5
Kiribati	2.2	−0.63	−0.43	−0.78	−0.55	−0.84	−0.31	−0.45	−0.18	−0.94	−0.49	−0.73	−0.75	−0.85	−0.81	−41	+6	−20	−29	−0	+5	+6	−13	−10	+1
Tuvalu	2.1	−0.58	−0.38	−0.85	−0.69	−0.76	−0.29	−0.46	−0.18	−0.78	−0.50	−0.37	−0.70	−0.83	−0.86	−43	+5	−28	−30	+1	+3	+4	−15	−10	+1
Guinea-Bissau	2.1	−0.26	−0.37	−0.68	−1.00	−0.69	−0.16	−0.56	−0.25	−1.00	−0.37	−0.76	−0.70	−0.50	−0.60	−24	+4	−1	−6	+5	+9	+1	+1	−19	−10
Haiti	2.0	−0.55	−0.40	−0.56	−0.71	−0.56	−0.17	−0.72	−0.24	−0.95	−0.87	−0.83	−0.78	−0.55	−0.68	−46	+4	−15	−21	−1	+4	−4	−21	−16	−6
Eritrea	2.0	−0.62	−0.49	−0.84	−1.01	−0.71	−0.24	−0.63	−0.53	−1.01	−0.67	−0.83	−0.65	−0.45	−0.64	−27	+4	−8	−5	+0	+8	+1	+2	−24	−9
Nauru	2.0	−0.66	−0.59	−0.98	−0.79	−0.85	−0.30	−0.41	−0.28	−0.99	−0.50	−0.50	−0.83	−0.92	−0.96	−36	+5	−17	−30	+1	−4	+6	−16	−11	+2
Holy See	1.8	−0.59	−0.37	−0.74	−0.30	−0.36	−0.33	−0.39	−0.29	−0.63	−0.40	−0.27	−0.58	−0.72	−0.74	−42	−1	−40	−16	−17	−18	+0	−18	−14	+4
Central African Rep.	1.7	−0.37	−0.40	−0.70	−0.83	−0.68	−0.21	−0.58	−0.69	−0.98	−0.47	−0.50	−0.62	−0.41	−0.64	−30	+3	−7	−6	+2	+7	−0	−1	−21	−11
Yemen	1.6	−0.34	−0.30	−0.65	−0.87	−0.75	−0.26	−0.60	−0.35	−0.68	−0.33	−1.07	−0.47	−0.45	−0.51	−42	+1	−8	−16	−5	+6	+3	+0	−24	−7
Somalia	1.6	−0.49	−0.58	−0.96	−1.08	−0.77	−0.20	−0.73	−0.52	−0.98	−0.57	−1.02	−0.69	−0.50	−0.74	−44	+3	−2	−6	+2	+7	−1	0	−21	−11
Afghanistan	1.5	−0.32	−0.25	−0.41	−0.53	−0.76	−0.24	−0.56	−0.30	−0.90	−0.66	−0.96	−0.56	−0.56	−0.54	−53	−16	−3	−26	−2	+6	−7	+0	−24	−7
South Sudan	1.4	−0.75	−0.56	−0.94	−1.03	−0.42	−0.22	−0.65	−0.74	−0.44	−0.67	−0.74	−0.52	−0.48	−0.70	−43	−84	−1	−4	+2	+7	−50	−2	−24	−11

Columns are scenario numbers: 01 Geoeconomic confrontation · 02 Single-supplier cut-off · 03 Global financial crisis · 04 Sovereign funding crisis · 05 Chokepoint closure · 06 Hybrid campaign · 07 Legitimacy crisis · 08 Mass displacement · 09 Energy supply shock · 10 Disaster in the core · 11 Food and water shock · 12 Infrastructure collapse · 13 AI diffusion shock · 14 Pandemic · 15 Superintelligence takeoff · 16 Energy abundance · 17 Biomedical breakthroughs · 18 Great-power détente · 19 Sovereign debt reset · 20 Emerging-market breakout · 21 Middle East settlement · 22 Yield revolution · 23 Digital state leapfrog · 24 100-day pandemic defence. Select a column heading to sort. Download all results as CSV.