A Economic and tradeB Geopolitical and securityC Energy, climate and resourcesD Technology and infrastructureE HealthHollow marker: in Library, not ranked in 2027↗ Upside scenario
Table equivalent
The same ratings as a sortable table. Hover a band or level for its range. Typical highly exposed nation, same five labels. The score is the highest dimension reached, not an average.
| Movement | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global financial crisis S03 | A Economic and trade | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | medium | 20 Tier I | new |
| 2 | Chokepoint closure S05 | B Geopolitical and security | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | high | 20 Tier I | new |
| 3 | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | A Economic and trade | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 3SignificantSignificant | 4SevereSevere | high | 20 Tier I | new |
| 4 | Legitimacy crisis S07 | B Geopolitical and security | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 2ModerateModerate | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | medium | 20 Tier I | new |
| 5 | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | A Economic and trade | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 4SevereSevere | high | 16 Tier I | new |
| 6 | Energy supply shock S09 | C Energy, climate and resources | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 4SevereSevere | high | 16 Tier I | new |
| 7 | AI diffusion shock S13 | D Technology and infrastructure | 3PossiblePossible | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 4SevereSevere | low | 12 Tier II | new |
| 8 | Pandemic S14 | E Health | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | medium | 15 Tier I | new |
| 9 | Food and water shock S11 | C Energy, climate and resources | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | medium | 15 Tier I | new |
| 10 | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | A Economic and trade | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 2ModerateModerate | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | high | 15 Tier I | new |
| — | Disaster in the core S10 | C Energy, climate and resources | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 2ModerateModerate | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | high | 15 Tier I | Library |
| — | Hybrid campaign S06 | B Geopolitical and security | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 2ModerateModerate | 3SignificantSignificant | medium | 12 Tier II | Library |
| — | Mass displacement S08 | B Geopolitical and security | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 2ModerateModerate | 4SevereSevere | medium | 12 Tier II | Library |
| — | Infrastructure collapse S12 | D Technology and infrastructure | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 2ModerateModerate | 4SevereSevere | low | 12 Tier II | Library |
| — | Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 5TransformativeTransformative | 5TransformativeTransformative | very low | 15 Tier I | Upside |
| — | Energy abundance S16 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 5TransformativeTransformative | medium | 15 Tier I | Upside |
| — | Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | E Health | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 4MajorMajor | low | 12 Tier II | Upside |
| — | Great-power détente S18 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 4MajorMajor | low | 12 Tier II | Upside |
| — | Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | A Economic and trade | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 3PossiblePossible | 2ModerateModerate | 4MajorMajor | medium | 8 Tier III | Upside |
| — | Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | A Economic and trade | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 4MajorMajor | medium | 12 Tier II | Upside |
| — | Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 3PossiblePossible | 3SignificantSignificant | 4MajorMajor | low | 8 Tier III | Upside |
| — | Yield revolution S22 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 4MajorMajor | medium | 8 Tier III | Upside |
| — | Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 2ModerateModerate | 4MajorMajor | medium | 16 Tier I | Upside |
| — | 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | E Health | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 4MajorMajor | 4MajorMajor | low | 12 Tier II | Upside |