Scenarios / S01

S01 · active · v0.2.0 · geoeconomic-confrontation

Geoeconomic confrontation

A Economic and tradeEconomic security and supply chainsInformation integrity and social cohesion

Tariffs, export controls, investment screening and sanctions escalate between the two largest economies until the trading system splits into aligned blocs. Third countries are forced to choose suppliers, standards and payment rails. World trade volumes fall by a fifth and the price of neutrality rises every quarter. This is the WEF Global Risks Report 2026's top risk on every horizon to 2028.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

EditionRankL2yL10ySystemicNationalConfidenceEdition view
202754Likely5Highly likely4Severe4SeverehighOpen

Versions

VersionDateChange
0.2.02 October 2026Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version
0.2.0 · active
Change log
0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log
Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S01 Geoeconomic confrontation, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/geoeconomic-confrontationContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.