Scenarios / S13

S13 · active · v0.2.0 · rapid-ai-diffusion-shock

Rapid AI diffusion shock

D Technology and infrastructureAI, cyber and digitalDemographics and human capitalEconomic security and supply chains

Frontier AI displaces a large share of knowledge work within three years while models, compute and standards sit with a few foreign providers. Tax bases, graduate labour markets, education systems and the state's own administrative capability are loaded at once. A market-concentration variant covers a sudden repricing of AI-linked assets and the dependency of national digital infrastructure on providers whose decisions are made elsewhere. The Allianz Risk Barometer 2026 ranks AI second (up from tenth); the WEF ranks adverse AI outcomes fifth on the ten-year horizon.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

EditionRankL2yL10ySystemicNationalConfidenceEdition view
202773Possible5Highly likely4Severe4SeverelowOpen

Versions

VersionDateChange
0.2.02 October 2026Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

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0.2.0 · active
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0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
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Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S13 Rapid AI diffusion shock, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/rapid-ai-diffusion-shockContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.
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