Sovereign funding crisis

A Economic and tradeEconomic security and supply chainsResilience and crisis preparedness

A nation loses the ability to fund itself: market access closes, the currency collapses, reserves are exhausted or frozen, or external aid is withdrawn. The IMF's Debt Sustainability Frameworks already specify standardised stress tests for this; the scenario adapts them to capability. Three variants: market loss (Sri Lanka 2022), sanctions and reserve freeze (Russia 2022) and aid withdrawal (the 2025 US foreign-aid freeze for aid-dependent states). An advanced-economy variant exists (the UK gilt crisis of September 2022).

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	10	3Possible	4Likely	2Moderate	5Catastrophic	high	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.2.0	2 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.2.0 · active
Change log: 0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
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Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S04 Sovereign funding crisis, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/sovereign-funding-crisis

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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