Hundred-day pandemic defence

E HealthResilience and crisis preparednessDemographics and human capitalAI, cyber and digital

A novel pathogen emerges and the world's defences work. Genomic surveillance finds it within days, a platform vaccine is designed in a week and authorised within 100 days, and regional factories produce doses for every continent at once. Tests and antivirals arrive on the same schedule. The outbreak is held to an epidemic: no general lockdowns, borders open, schools open. The benefit goes to nations inside the surveillance and manufacturing network that can deliver doses and are believed when they ask people to take them. Nations outside it wait, as they did in 2021.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	3Possible	4Likely	4Major	4Major	low	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.4.0	3 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.4.0 · active
Change log: 0.4.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.
Full change log

Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S24 Hundred-day pandemic defence, Scenario Library v0.4. scenarios.ginc.org/library/hundred-day-pandemic-defence

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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