The ranked ten by relevance

Relevance is on a scale of 1 to 5. Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.

Relevance	Scenario	Family	Exposure	L2y	Sys	Nat	Rank
5/5	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	Import route concentration and reserve days	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	2
5/5	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Electoral administration, crisis communications, security-force doctrine	4LikelyLikely	2ModerateModerate	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	4
4/5	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	Fiscal space and resolution regimes	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	1
4/5	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	—	5Highly likelyHighly likely	3SignificantSignificant	4SevereSevere	3
4/5	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Trade dependence and alignment	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	5
4/5	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Storage days, interconnection, demand-response, fiscal headroom	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	6
4/5	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	Tax base, education and welfare design, procurement dependence	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	7
4/5	Pandemic S14	Health	Surge capacity, stockpiles, manufacturing access, communication credibility	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	8
4/5	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Reserve policy by grain, safety-net triggers, water treaties	3PossiblePossible	3SignificantSignificant	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	9
4/5	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	Reserve adequacy, debt structure, payment-rail dependence	3PossiblePossible	2ModerateModerate	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	10

Actions and what to watch

Drawn from each scenario's government block and grouped by scenario. An item that appears under more than one scenario is listed once.

Maritime chokepoint closure

S05

Actions

• Write allocation plans for 90-day closures
• Pre-agree reserve release with the IEA
• Secure escort arrangements

Watch

• UKMTO incident reports
• Transit counts

Political legitimacy crisis

S07

Actions

• Pre-commit to result-verification protocols
• Rapid-response information units
• Lawful protest management plans

Watch

• Trust surveys
• Protest counts
• Platform takedowns

Global financial crisis

S03

Actions

• Pre-position resolution tools and social protection triggers
• Stress the sovereign balance sheet on the supervisory path

Watch

• Spreads
• Non-bank leverage

Single-supplier cut-off

S02

Actions

• Map tier-two dependence for the 20 most critical inputs
• Set stockpile grades, not just volumes
• Pre-qualify alternative suppliers

Watch

• Licence approval times

Geoeconomic confrontation

S01

Actions

• Map bloc exposure by product and payment rail
• Pre-negotiate exemptions
• Build customs capacity

Watch

• Effective tariff rate
• Licence denial rates

Energy supply shock

S09

Actions

• Stress the budget on 18 months at ×2/×4
• Pre-design targeted rather than universal support
• Protect critical users

Watch

• Storage fill
• Forward curves

Rapid AI diffusion shock

S13

Actions

• Model exposure by occupation and tax line
• Build sovereign fallbacks for critical public systems
• Fund retraining at scale
• Negotiate standards

Watch

• Entry-level vacancy data
• AI share of public procurement

Pandemic with a novel pathogen

S14

Actions

• Maintain regional manufacturing and pre-purchase agreements
• Exercise triage and oxygen supply
• Invest in trust before the event

Watch

• WHO Disease Outbreak News
• Zoonotic surveillance

Food and water system shock

S11

Actions

• Hold physical reserves where the people are
• Index transfers to prices
• Diversify import origins
• Pre-negotiate basin rules

Watch

• FAO Food Price Index
• Stocks-to-use ratios
• Reservoir levels

Sovereign funding crisis

S04

Actions

• Pre-arrange swap lines and contingent financing
• Diversify payment rails
• Protect health and food import lines in the contingency plan

Watch

• Import cover
• Rollover calendar