The ranked ten by relevance

Relevance is on a scale of 1 to 5. Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.

Relevance	Scenario	Family	Exposure	L2y	Sys	Nat	Rank
5/5	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	The scenario is their native territory	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	1
5/5	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Earnings of trade-dependent sectors and sovereign spreads of non-aligned states	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	5
5/5	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Energy-intensive equities, utilities, inflation-linked assets	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	6
5/5	Pandemic S14	Health	Healthcare, travel, sovereign debt	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	8
5/5	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	Sovereign exposure	3PossiblePossible	2ModerateModerate	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	10
4/5	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	Shipping, insurance, energy and importers	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	2
4/5	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	Equity concentration, labour-intensive services, education	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	7
4/5	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Agribusiness, sovereigns of food importers, fertiliser	3PossiblePossible	3SignificantSignificant	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	9
3/5	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	—	5Highly likelyHighly likely	3SignificantSignificant	4SevereSevere	3
3/5	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Sovereign and currency	4LikelyLikely	2ModerateModerate	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	4

Actions and what to watch

Drawn from each scenario's investors block and grouped by scenario. An item that appears under more than one scenario is listed once.

Global financial crisis

S03

Actions

• Run the Fed and BoE paths across sovereign and corporate books

Watch

• VIX
• HY spreads
• CRE marks

Geoeconomic confrontation

S01

Actions

• Stress portfolios on a 20 per cent trade-volume fall

Watch

• Tariff announcements
• FX of middle powers

Energy supply shock

S09

Actions

• Run the BoE path

Watch

• TTF and JKM forward curves
• OPEC spare capacity

Pandemic with a novel pathogen

S14

Actions

• Scenario on COVID-plus

Watch

• Outbreak alerts
• Vaccine platform readiness

Sovereign funding crisis

S04

Actions

• Run IMF DSF stress tests on holdings

Watch

• EMBI spreads
• Reserve data
• Donor budgets

Maritime chokepoint closure

S05

Actions

• Stress on a 90-day closure with insurer withdrawal

Watch

• War-risk premiums
• Tanker rates

Rapid AI diffusion shock

S13

Actions

• Scenario on a 30 per cent occupational exposure and a DeepSeek-style repricing

Watch

• Hyperscaler capex
• Model price curves

Food and water system shock

S11

Actions

• Scenario on ×1.8 staples

Watch

• Export-ban announcements

Single-supplier cut-off

S02

Actions

• Identify single-supplier exposure in portfolio companies

Watch

• Lead-time indices

Political legitimacy crisis

S07

Actions

• Governance risk in sovereign models

Watch

• V-Dem and Freedom House trajectories
• CDS around elections