Scenarios 2027 / Scenarios
Rated at Standard Severe. Likelihood type: idiosyncratic. Source of scores: ginc-desk-v0.2.
The rain that was forecast as 'heavy' delivers a year's total in eight hours over the metropolitan area. Underpasses, metro lines and the basement data centres of three banks flood before the first alert reaches phones; the alert system itself depends on a tower that loses power at 19:40. The main port is closed for a month, the airport for nine days. Insurers report 400,000 claims in a week and a quarter of the damaged homes have no cover. The hospital that serves the district is evacuated by boat. Six weeks later, the national accounts show the quarter's output down 4 per cent and the fiscal cost at 2 per cent of GDP before reconstruction begins. An earthquake variant plays out in a different capital: 50,000 dead, two million homeless, the building-code enforcement failures of 30 years visible from the air. In both, the question that decides the recovery is not the size of the hazard but whether the state can register, house, treat and pay a few million people at once, and whether anyone trusts the numbers it publishes.
The dateline is illustrative, not a forecast. The narrative is hypothetical; the historical anchors below are real events.
A once-in-a-century flood, storm, fire, heatwave or earthquake strikes the nation's main population and economic centre. v0.2 widened the scenario from climate to seismic hazards, since the Swiss analysis ranks earthquake third of 44 hazards and the 2023 Türkiye–Syria and 2025 Myanmar earthquakes were the deadliest disasters of the period. Following the Swiss method, every nation is assessed at one common 'major' intensity so that hazards can be compared; the hazard type is a parameter.
| Event | Date | What happened | Calibrates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia floods | 29 October 2024 | Over 220 deaths; alert failures; months of recovery | warning and alert failure |
| Los Angeles wildfires | January 2025 | Insured losses around US$40 billion; among the costliest wildfires on record | urban fire, insurance gap |
| Hurricane Helene | September 2024 | Over 200 deaths across the US south-east; inland flooding far from the coast | cascading inland impact |
| Pakistan floods | 2022 | A third of the country under water; 33 million affected; damage around US$30 billion | national-scale flood, low income |
| Türkiye–Syria earthquake | 6 February 2023 | Over 50,000 deaths; damage estimates above US$30 billion for Türkiye | seismic variant |
| Myanmar earthquake | 28 March 2025 | Magnitude 7.7; thousands dead; response constrained by conflict | compound with S07 |
| Swiss national risk analysis | 2025 | Earthquake third, inland flooding fifth, windstorm sixth, drought seventh, heatwave ninth of 44 hazards | hazard ranking precedent |
Shown at their preset values. Parameters are not adjustable in this release and nothing on this page is computed from them. Custom settings run (Phase B) but are labelled 'non-standard run' and excluded from comparisons.
| Parameter | Default | Range or options | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard | flood | options: earthquake / wildfire / storm / heatwave | — |
| Return period | 1-in-100 | 1-in-50 to 1-in-500 | — |
| Share of population exposed | 15 per cent | 5–40 | — |
| Share of GDP in affected zone | 25 per cent | 10–50 | — |
| Insurance penetration | 30 per cent | 5–70 | — |
| Cascading infrastructure failure | yes | — | — |
High: capability band shifts expected under current plans. Medium: band shifts under 'none' policy response only. Low: strain without band shift. Loads are judgement-based until the Atlas connects. Domains link to the Atlas.
| Domain | Load | Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | ||
| Defence and security | Medium | military aid to civil authorities; search and rescue |
| Strategic infrastructure | High | grid, water, transport, telecoms resilience and repair |
| Critical technology | Low | early warning, geospatial data |
| Soft | ||
| Government effectiveness | High | emergency management, alerts, reconstruction, registration and payments |
| Human capital | High | health surge, schooling disruption, mental health |
| Influence and cohesion | Medium | trust in authorities; solidarity |
| Economic | ||
| Macro-financial | Medium | fiscal cost, insurance sector, output loss |
| Industry, trade and supply | Medium | ports, factories, logistics |
| Energy and resources | Medium | generation and fuel distribution |
| Region | Exposure | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| North America | High | Hurricanes, fire, earthquake |
| Europe | Medium | Floods, heat |
| China | High | Floods, typhoons, earthquakes |
| Indo-Pacific | High | Typhoons, earthquakes, Pacific cyclones |
| South Asia | High | Floods, heat, earthquakes |
| Gulf and Middle East | Medium | Heat, flash floods, Türkiye and Iran seismic |
| Africa | High | Floods, drought, low coverage |
| Latin America and Caribbean | High | Hurricanes, earthquakes, El Niño |
| Russia and Eurasia | Medium | Central Asian seismic; wildfire |
| Indicator | Source | Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Seasonal forecasts and ENSO state | — | — |
| Cat model loss estimates | — | — |
| Insurance availability by region | — | — |
| Alert system test results | — | — |
| Building-code enforcement audits | — | — |
| Reservoir and river levels | — | — |
| Urban heat records | — | — |
| Seismic monitoring | — | — |
From the GINC 250: trends rated Very high or Critical for this scenario. All S10 trend scores.
| Rating | Band or level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Likelihood, two years | 3Possible | A 1-in-100 event in the core is about 1 per cent a year per hazard, higher across multiple hazards and under climate change. |
| Likelihood, ten years | 4Likely | — |
| Systemic impact | 2Moderate | Unless the core is a global hub. |
| National impact | 5Catastrophic | — |
| Confidence | high | Hazard science is mature. |
Source of scores: ginc-desk-v0.2. Confidence refers to the rating, not the scenario. Calibration sources are listed with the anchors above and on the methodology page.
Contested assumptions for the panel to resolve.
No signed commentary in this build.
0.2.0 · active0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.GINC (2027). Scenario S10 Catastrophic disaster in the core, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/catastrophic-disaster-coreContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.