Sensitivity and network position
Rank23 of 250
Sensitivity28.5 · rank 11
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank53.2 · rank 36
Eigenvector4.5
Betweenness25.1
Links18 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite40.5
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 6Critical | Political legitimacy crisis S07 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 6Critical | Pandemic with a novel pathogen S14 | E Health |
| 5Very high | Hundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | E Health |
| 4High | Hybrid campaign by a hostile state S06 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 4High | Digital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 3Moderate | Catastrophic disaster in the core S10 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 3Moderate | Critical infrastructure collapse S12 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 2Low | Global financial crisis S03 | A Economic and trade |
| 2Low | Rapid AI diffusion shock S13 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 2Low | Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 2Low | Biomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗ | E Health |
| 1Very low | Mass displacement shock S08 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 1Very low | Great-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Maritime chokepoint closure S05 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Energy supply shock S09 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Food and water system shock S11 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Energy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Coordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Emerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Middle East regional settlement S21 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Agricultural yield revolution S22 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.