GINC 250 / Digital public infrastructure

Trend · rank 103 of 250

Digital public infrastructure

Governance & IntegrityTechnology & Financialsdigital financedata governance

Shared digital identity, payment and data-exchange systems run as public goods, on which services and emergency payments depend.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank103 of 250
Sensitivity20.1 · rank 38
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank32.4 · rank 152
Eigenvector2.4
Betweenness18.2
Links11 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite27.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighData protection & digital rightsTechnology & Financials166
4HighDigital payments & FinTechTechnology & Financials192
3ModerateDigital sovereignty & data localisationTechnology & Financials50
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateCash decline & payment dependenceTechnology & Financials188
3ModerateCrypto-assets & tokenisationTechnology & Financials228
3ModerateBiometricsTechnology & Financials237