GINC 250 / Grid enhancement

Trend · rank 108 of 250

Grid enhancement

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentpower

Modernising and expanding electricity grids, interconnectors and transmission to carry electrified, renewable-heavy demand.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank108 of 250
Sensitivity20.1 · rank 36
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank38.8 · rank 112
Eigenvector0.5
Betweenness6.8
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite26.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
6CriticalEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highElectrification of heat, transport & industryEnergy & Environment30
4HighRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
4HighDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
4HighData-centre power demandEnergy & Environment88
4HighInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
4HighLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164
4HighSpace weather exposureEnergy & Environment170
4HighEnergy povertyEnergy & Environment176
4HighAdvanced nuclearEnergy & Environment179
4HighDemand flexibility & smart meteringEnergy & Environment197
3ModerateBatteries & energy storageEnergy & Environment111
3ModerateSmart cities & buildingsSociety & Culture174
3ModerateEnhanced geothermalEnergy & Environment213