GINC 250 / Polarisation & populism

Trend · rank 39 of 250

Polarisation & populism

Governance & IntegritySociety & Culturepoliticsinequality

The splintering of political consensus and the rise of movements that set 'the people' against institutions and expertise.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank39 of 250
Sensitivity30.6 · rank 8
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank42.1 · rank 94
Eigenvector3.1
Betweenness12.8
Links14 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite36.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
4HighCivil unrestSociety & Culture59
4HighRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModerateYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
3ModerateReligious & identity nationalismSociety & Culture140
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateElection integrity & interferenceSociety & Culture161
3ModerateTransnational repression & diaspora politicsSociety & Culture177
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184