GINC 250 / Regional medicines manufacturing

Trend · rank 127 of 250

Regional medicines manufacturing

Production & InnovationHealth & Modern Sciencebiotechmanufacturing

Vaccine and medicine production built closer to where it is needed, after export bans in 2020 left importers last in line.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank127 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 83
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank26.4 · rank 193
Eigenvector2.3
Betweenness30.5
Links8 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite24.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
5Very highSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
5Very highPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
4HighBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAI drug developmentHealth & Modern Science142
4HighSynthetic biology & biomanufacturingHealth & Modern Science158
3ModeratePharmaceutical supply concentrationHealth & Modern Science40
3ModerateReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateModern vaccinesHealth & Modern Science133
3ModerateResearch & development intensityGeoeconomics & Statecraft136
3ModerateBiosecurity & dual-use biologyHealth & Modern Science203
3ModeratePrecision medicine & oncologyHealth & Modern Science209