GINC 250 / Strategic stockpiles & reserves

Trend · rank 71 of 250

Strategic stockpiles & reserves

Strategic InfrastructureGeoeconomics & Statecraftresiliencelogistics

Public reserves of fuel, grain, medicines and critical inputs: their size, their grade and whether they are where the people are.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank71 of 250
Sensitivity26.4 · rank 18
Breadth6 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank26.6 · rank 191
Eigenvector2.5
Betweenness27.4
Links6 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite31.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
5Very highMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
5Very highEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
4HighPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
4HighHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
3ModerateAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateWhole-of-society resilienceGeoeconomics & Statecraft76
3ModerateEarly-warning systemsEnergy & Environment80
3ModeratePublic communication in crisisGeoeconomics & Statecraft100
3ModeratePort & shipping concentrationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation124
3ModerateFuel logistics & refining capacityEnergy & Environment153