GINC 250 / Zoonotic spillover & pandemic risk

Trend · rank 163 of 250

Zoonotic spillover & pandemic risk

Human CapitalHealth & Modern Sciencedisease

The standing risk of novel pathogens crossing from animals to humans and spreading through dense, connected populations.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank163 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 111
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank30.7 · rank 161
Eigenvector0.4
Betweenness11.6
Links12 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite20.9

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
6CriticalHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
1Very lowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalAntimicrobial resistanceHealth & Modern Science211
4HighModern vaccinesHealth & Modern Science133
4HighChronic disease burdenHealth & Modern Science162
3ModerateGlobal health governanceHealth & Modern Science77
3ModerateHealthcare system reformHealth & Modern Science129
3ModerateHealth workforce shortageHealth & Modern Science135
3ModerateAI diagnostics & predictive healthHealth & Modern Science187
3ModerateHygiene & sanitationHealth & Modern Science208
3ModerateMental healthHealth & Modern Science222
3ModerateDigital & remote careHealth & Modern Science225
3ModerateObesity & GLP-1 medicinesHealth & Modern Science230
3ModeratePollution & contaminantsEnergy & Environment233