GINC 250 / Brain drain & talent migration

Trend · rank 92 of 250

Brain drain & talent migration

Human CapitalSociety & Culturework skillsdemography

The movement of skilled people towards a few hubs, and the loss this means for the nations that trained them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank92 of 250
Sensitivity17.4 · rank 63
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank45.0 · rank 73
Eigenvector1.9
Betweenness17.2
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite28.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highTalent & labour shortagesSociety & Culture137
4HighDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
4HighYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
4HighAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
4HighChanging nature of workSociety & Culture205
4HighInternational student flowsSociety & Culture224
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateAfrica's demographic & economic riseSociety & Culture68
3ModerateInformal employmentSociety & Culture113
3ModerateClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
3ModerateAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
3ModerateGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
3ModerateLearning loss & education qualitySociety & Culture154
3ModerateReskilling & education technologySociety & Culture169
3ModerateCare economy & unpaid workSociety & Culture201
3ModerateFalling fertility & population declineSociety & Culture218
3ModerateGender equality & inclusionSociety & Culture219