GINC 250 / Demographic pressure in young nations

Trend · rank 28 of 250

Demographic pressure in young nations

Human CapitalSociety & Culturedemography

Fast-growing, young populations in low-income states outpacing jobs, services and food supply.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank28 of 250
Sensitivity18.1 · rank 54
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank46.2 · rank 67
Eigenvector1.5
Betweenness60.8
Links16 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite38.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
5Very highEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
4HighAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
1Very lowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAfrica's demographic & economic riseSociety & Culture68
4HighBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
4HighAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
4HighClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
4HighFalling fertility & population declineSociety & Culture218
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
3ModerateUrbanisationSociety & Culture91
3ModerateMalnutritionSociety & Culture112
3ModerateInformal employmentSociety & Culture113
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModerateTalent & labour shortagesSociety & Culture137
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateChild & maternal healthHealth & Modern Science151
3ModerateEmerging middle classSociety & Culture193
3ModerateGender equality & inclusionSociety & Culture219