GINC 250 / Breadbasket & food export concentration

Trend · rank 94 of 250

Breadbasket & food export concentration

Trade & InvestmentEnergy & Environmentfood systemstrade

Dependence of world staple supply on a few exporting regions, and the readiness of exporters to ban shipments.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank94 of 250
Sensitivity19.4 · rank 41
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank31.6 · rank 155
Eigenvector17.8
Betweenness20.9
Links10 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite28.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
6CriticalAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highFertiliser dependenceConsumer, Food & Retail64
4HighCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateMalnutritionSociety & Culture112
3ModerateAgricultural technologyConsumer, Food & Retail138
3ModerateFood wasteConsumer, Food & Retail223