GINC 250 / Export controls & economic statecraft

Trend · rank 4 of 250

Export controls & economic statecraft

Trade & InvestmentGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicstrade

Licensing regimes, sanctions and investment screening used as instruments of coercion, with secondary effects on third countries.

Broken out into Sanctions evasion & shadow fleets

Sensitivity and network position

Rank4 of 250
Sensitivity27.8 · rank 13
Breadth6 of 24 scenarios High or above, 3 Critical
PageRank92.2 · rank 3
Eigenvector99.3
Betweenness32.9
Links39 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite62.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
6CriticalSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
5Very highSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
5Very highSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
5Very highDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
5Very highFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
4HighShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
4HighSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
4HighTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModeratePharmaceutical supply concentrationHealth & Modern Science40
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateFertiliser dependenceConsumer, Food & Retail64
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateBreadbasket & food export concentrationEnergy & Environment94
3ModerateDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121
3ModerateRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139
3ModerateDigital & services tradeTechnology & Financials178