GINC 250 / Business dynamism & start-up formation

Trend · rank 227 of 250

Business dynamism & start-up formation

Production & InnovationGeoeconomics & Statecraftmanufacturingwork skills

The rate at which new firms form, grow and displace incumbents, which sets how fast an economy adopts new technology.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank227 of 250
Sensitivity11.1 · rank 160
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank13.0 · rank 235
Eigenvector4.4
Betweenness0.0
Links4 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite11.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
1Very lowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
3ModerateResearch & development intensityGeoeconomics & Statecraft136
3ModerateRobotics & automationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation198