GINC 250 / Industrial policy competition

Trend · rank 19 of 250

Industrial policy competition

Production & InnovationGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicsmanufacturing

Subsidies, tariffs and local-content rules used by governments to relocate strategic industries, in a race that others must match or lose.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank19 of 250
Sensitivity20.1 · rank 37
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank64.7 · rank 15
Eigenvector64.6
Betweenness30.9
Links28 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite45.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
5Very highReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateResearch & development intensityGeoeconomics & Statecraft136
3ModerateRobotics & automationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation198
3ModerateBusiness dynamism & start-up formationGeoeconomics & Statecraft227