GINC 250 / Financial inclusion

Trend · rank 195 of 250

Financial inclusion

Financial StrengthTechnology & Financialsdebt financeinequality

Small-scale credit, savings and insurance extending financial access to underserved populations, increasingly delivered through mobile platforms.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank195 of 250
Sensitivity11.1 · rank 148
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank26.2 · rank 194
Eigenvector4.0
Betweenness4.9
Links10 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite16.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
4HighInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
4HighHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModerateInformal employmentSociety & Culture113
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModerateDigital payments & FinTechTechnology & Financials192
3ModerateGender equality & inclusionSociety & Culture219