GINC 250 / Tax base erosion & global tax reform

Trend · rank 53 of 250

Tax base erosion & global tax reform

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt financeinstitutions

Revenue built on payroll and location slipping away as value moves to capital, platforms and other jurisdictions, and the coordinated attempts to tax it.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank53 of 250
Sensitivity16.7 · rank 70
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank54.9 · rank 31
Eigenvector11.8
Betweenness22.9
Links24 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite33.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
4HighFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
4HighCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
4HighIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
4HighAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
4HighNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModeratePension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215