GINC 250 / Aid retrenchment

Trend · rank 57 of 250

Aid retrenchment

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt financeinstitutions

Cuts to development assistance by major donors, withdrawing finance from health systems and budgets that depend on it.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank57 of 250
Sensitivity22.9 · rank 29
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank44.9 · rank 74
Eigenvector11.3
Betweenness13.6
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
5Very highCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
4HighHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
3ModerateAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
4HighFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
4HighIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModerateInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateClimate finance & loss and damageEnergy & Environment79
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModeratePension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateDisaster risk financeEnergy & Environment168