GINC 250 / Central bank independence under pressure

Trend · rank 160 of 250

Central bank independence under pressure

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutionsdebt finance

Political pressure on monetary authorities as debt, inflation and growth pull in different directions.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank160 of 250
Sensitivity10.4 · rank 165
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank39.7 · rank 107
Eigenvector9.1
Betweenness6.7
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite21.2

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
5Very highIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
4HighInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159