GINC 250 / Conscription & reserve mobilisation

Trend · rank 199 of 250

Conscription & reserve mobilisation

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftdefencedemography

The return of national service and larger reserves as armies struggle to recruit.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank199 of 250
Sensitivity6.9 · rank 203
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank29.1 · rank 174
Eigenvector26.3
Betweenness0.0
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite16.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
4HighArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModerateDrone & autonomous warfareIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation98
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104