GINC 250 / Drone & autonomous warfare

Trend · rank 98 of 250

Drone & autonomous warfare

National SecurityIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationdefencerobotics

Cheap drones and autonomous systems changing the cost of attack and defence, on battlefields and against civilian infrastructure.

Broken out from Defence technology

Sensitivity and network position

Rank98 of 250
Sensitivity16.0 · rank 77
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank36.8 · rank 128
Eigenvector24.8
Betweenness17.4
Links14 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite27.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
4HighMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
4HighDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
4HighMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
3ModerateRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
3ModerateConscription & reserve mobilisationGeoeconomics & Statecraft199
3ModerateDrones & advanced air mobilityIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation242