Sensitivity and network position
Rank21 of 250
Sensitivity18.8 · rank 49
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank64.9 · rank 14
Eigenvector46.8
Betweenness32.1
Links27 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite43.1
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 6Critical | Hybrid campaign by a hostile state S06 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 4High | Political legitimacy crisis S07 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 4High | Critical infrastructure collapse S12 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 3Moderate | Maritime chokepoint closure S05 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 3Moderate | Great-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 3Moderate | Middle East regional settlement S21 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 2Low | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | A Economic and trade |
| 2Low | Mass displacement shock S08 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Global financial crisis S03 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Energy supply shock S09 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Catastrophic disaster in the core S10 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Food and water system shock S11 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Rapid AI diffusion shock S13 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 0Not related | Pandemic with a novel pathogen S14 | E Health |
| 0Not related | Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 0Not related | Energy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Biomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗ | E Health |
| 0Not related | Coordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Emerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Agricultural yield revolution S22 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Digital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 0Not related | Hundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | E Health |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Paradigm | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Very high | Cyber insecurity | Technology & Financials | 102 |
| 5Very high | Espionage & insider threat | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 145 |
| 4High | Armed conflict at post-war highs | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 20 |
| 4High | Russia–NATO confrontation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 36 |
| 4High | Rearmament & defence spending | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 37 |
| 4High | Private military & proxy forces | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 38 |
| 4High | Nuclear & WMD proliferation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 60 |
| 4High | Terrorism & violent extremism | Society & Culture | 99 |
| 3Moderate | Great-power competition | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 1 |
| 3Moderate | Taiwan Strait tension | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 10 |
| 3Moderate | Alliance realignment & burden-shifting | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 16 |
| 3Moderate | Sanctions evasion & shadow fleets | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 24 |
| 3Moderate | Middle East instability | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 26 |
| 3Moderate | Maritime chokepoint dependence | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 32 |
| 3Moderate | Indo-Pacific maritime disputes | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 42 |
| 3Moderate | Foreign information manipulation | Society & Culture | 47 |
| 3Moderate | Missile & long-range strike proliferation | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 49 |
| 3Moderate | Arctic & polar competition | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 87 |
| 3Moderate | Drone & autonomous warfare | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 98 |
| 3Moderate | Militarisation of space | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 104 |
| 3Moderate | State fragility & intrastate violence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 116 |
| 3Moderate | Arms control erosion | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 122 |
| 3Moderate | Subsea cable & pipeline vulnerability | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 126 |
| 3Moderate | Transnational repression & diaspora politics | Society & Culture | 177 |
| 3Moderate | Organised crime & illicit economies | Society & Culture | 181 |
| 3Moderate | Conscription & reserve mobilisation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 199 |
| 3Moderate | Ransomware & cybercrime | Technology & Financials | 210 |