GINC 250 / Indo-Pacific maritime disputes

Trend · rank 42 of 250

Indo-Pacific maritime disputes

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftconflicttrade

Contested waters and features in the South and East China Seas, astride the busiest trade routes.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank42 of 250
Sensitivity11.8 · rank 147
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank58.4 · rank 24
Eigenvector67.4
Betweenness12.3
Links26 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite34.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
4HighGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
4HighTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
3ModerateTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModeratePort & shipping concentrationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation124
3ModerateRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139
3ModerateEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145