GINC 250 / Rise of middle powers

Trend · rank 11 of 250

Rise of middle powers

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomics

India, the Gulf states, Türkiye, Brazil, Indonesia and others using non-alignment as leverage between the great powers.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank11 of 250
Sensitivity24.3 · rank 24
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank73.7 · rank 10
Eigenvector81.3
Betweenness23.8
Links30 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite51.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
5Very highMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
5Very highGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
4HighGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
4HighUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
4HighWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
4HighTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
4HighInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
4HighResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
4HighSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
4HighDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
4HighDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117