GINC 250 / US policy volatility

Trend · rank 14 of 250

US policy volatility

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicspolitics

Abrupt shifts in US trade, aid, security and regulatory policy, and the difficulty for others of planning around them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank14 of 250
Sensitivity32.6 · rank 4
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank58.9 · rank 22
Eigenvector61.8
Betweenness14.0
Links23 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite48.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
4HighResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
4HighGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
4HighDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateReligious & identity nationalismSociety & Culture140