Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

Exposure	Scenario	Family	Rationale	L2y	Nat	Priority	Rank
High	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	Market access lost, aid falls	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	1
High	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	Fertiliser, medicines, no stockpiles	5Highly likelyHighly likely	4SevereSevere	20	3
High	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Coups and protest-driven collapses	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	4
High	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Diesel dependence, no fiscal space	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	6
High	Digital state leapfrog S23	Technology and infrastructure	The largest leap available; mobile money base	4LikelyLikely	4MajorMajor	16	Library
High	Pandemic S14	Health	Health system capacity; late vaccine access	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	8
High	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Sahel, Horn, Nile; fertiliser	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	9
High	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	Debt distress and aid dependence	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	10
High	Disaster in the core S10	Energy, climate and resources	Floods, drought, low coverage	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	Library
High	Energy abundance S16	Energy, climate and resources	Cheap distributed power for importers; Nigeria, Angola and Algeria lose revenue	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	Mass displacement S08	Geopolitical and security	Sudan, Sahel, DRC, Horn	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
High	Infrastructure collapse S12	Technology and infrastructure	South African load-shedding; fragile grids; no backup depth	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
High	Biomedical breakthroughs S17	Health	Largest gains from HIV and malaria prevention; delivery is the constraint	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	Emerging-market breakout S20	Economic and trade	Young workforces; the widest gap between those that break out and those bypassed	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	100-day pandemic defence S24	Health	New regional plants; delivery and workforce are the constraint	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	Sovereign debt reset S19	Economic and trade	Most of the nations treated; interest bills above health and education	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
High	Yield revolution S22	Energy, climate and resources	The widest yield gap and the largest gain	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Medium	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	East African food and fuel freight	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	2
Medium	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Commodity prices, aid and finance alignment	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	5
Medium	Superintelligence takeoff S15	Technology and infrastructure	Largest gains from health and agricultural science; least bargaining power	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
Medium	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	Lower exposure; leapfrog potential; dependence	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	7
Medium	Great-power détente S18	Geopolitical and security	Cheaper food and freight; less competition for its alignment	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
Medium	Middle East settlement S21	Geopolitical and security	Red Sea trade and Suez revenue restored for Egypt and East Africa	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Low	Hybrid campaign S06	Geopolitical and security	—	4LikelyLikely	3SignificantSignificant	12	Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 7 ranked scenarios to which Africa is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.

Government effectiveness Soft

7 High · 0 Med

Industry, trade and supply Economic

6 High · 0 Med

Influence and cohesion Soft

5 High · 1 Med

Macro-financial Economic

5 High · 1 Med

Human capital Soft

4 High · 3 Med

Energy and resources Economic

3 High · 1 Med

Critical technology Hard

2 High · 2 Med

Defence and security Hard

1 High · 6 Med

Strategic infrastructure Hard

1 High · 4 Med