Scenarios by regional exposure
Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.
| Exposure | Scenario | Family | Rationale | L2y | Nat | Priority | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Global financial crisis S03 | Economic and trade | Origin and amplifier | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 1 |
| High | Pandemic S14 | Health | Connectivity; trust deficits | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 8 |
| High | Disaster in the core S10 | Energy, climate and resources | Hurricanes, fire, earthquake | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | Library |
| High | Superintelligence takeoff S15 | Technology and infrastructure | Host of most leading projects; concentration of gains and of risk | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative | 15 | Library |
| High | AI diffusion shock S13 | Technology and infrastructure | Origin; concentration and displacement | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | 7 |
| High | Biomedical breakthroughs S17 | Health | High obesity and drug prices; large gains once prices fall | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| High | 100-day pandemic defence S24 | Health | Platform owners and manufacturers; trust deficits decide uptake | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Economic and trade | — | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 20 | 3 |
| Medium | Legitimacy crisis S07 | Geopolitical and security | CFR Tier I | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 4 |
| Medium | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Economic and trade | Initiator and target; diversified | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere | 16 | 5 |
| Medium | Energy abundance S16 | Energy, climate and resources | Shale producers lose, consumers and data centres gain; permitting decides the balance | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative | 15 | Library |
| Medium | Mass displacement S08 | Geopolitical and security | Western Hemisphere displacement | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Infrastructure collapse S12 | Technology and infrastructure | Ageing grid, extreme weather, cyber | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Great-power détente S18 | Geopolitical and security | Party to the settlement; consumers gain, protected plants lose | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Emerging-market breakout S20 | Economic and trade | Mexico gains from proximity; incumbent manufacturers face new rivals | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Yield revolution S22 | Energy, climate and resources | Exporter: lower prices and farm incomes | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| Low | Chokepoint closure S05 | Geopolitical and security | Net exporter; price exposure only | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 2 |
| Low | Energy supply shock S09 | Energy, climate and resources | Net exporter; price pass-through | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere | 16 | 6 |
| Low | Digital state leapfrog S23 | Technology and infrastructure | Fragmented private systems; incumbents exposed | 4LikelyLikely | 4MajorMajor | 16 | Library |
| Low | Food and water shock S11 | Energy, climate and resources | Exporter | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 9 |
| Low | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Economic and trade | — | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 10 |
| Low | Hybrid campaign S06 | Geopolitical and security | — | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 12 | Library |
| Low | Sovereign debt reset S19 | Economic and trade | Creditor; New York law governs many bonds | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| Low | Middle East settlement S21 | Geopolitical and security | Guarantor; shale producers face a lower oil price | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
Regional loading profile
Of the 3 ranked scenarios to which North America is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.