Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

Exposure	Scenario	Family	Rationale	L2y	Nat	Priority	Rank
High	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	Crude imports through Hormuz and Malacca	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	2
High	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Initiator and target; export engine	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	5
High	Pandemic S14	Health	Density; prior experience	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	8
High	Disaster in the core S10	Energy, climate and resources	Floods, typhoons, earthquakes	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	Library
High	Superintelligence takeoff S15	Technology and infrastructure	The other host; domestic chips and power decide its pace	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	Energy abundance S16	Energy, climate and resources	Largest maker of solar and batteries and largest energy importer	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	Biomedical breakthroughs S17	Health	Rapid ageing and large domestic manufacturing	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	Great-power détente S18	Geopolitical and security	Party to the settlement; export access restored	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	100-day pandemic defence S24	Health	Large manufacturing base; data sharing is the question	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
Medium	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	Property overhang; capital controls insulate	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	1
Medium	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Coal buffer; crude imports	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	6
Medium	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Imports of soy, feed; water stress in the north	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	9
Medium	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	Domestic capability; its own displacement	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	7
Medium	Infrastructure collapse S12	Technology and infrastructure	Strong state capacity; cyber-physical targets	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
Medium	Emerging-market breakout S20	Economic and trade	Loses assembly to neighbours; gains customers	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
Medium	Sovereign debt reset S19	Economic and trade	Largest bilateral creditor; books losses and sets a precedent	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Medium	Middle East settlement S21	Geopolitical and security	Largest buyer of Gulf oil; secure supply	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Medium	Yield revolution S22	Energy, climate and resources	Large importer of feed; strong domestic crop science	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Low	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	Low as supplier, Medium as importer of tools	5Highly likelyHighly likely	4SevereSevere	20	3
Low	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Different pathway	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	4
Low	Digital state leapfrog S23	Technology and infrastructure	Built its own, on platform firms	4LikelyLikely	4MajorMajor	16	Library
Low	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	—	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	10
Low	Hybrid campaign S06	Geopolitical and security	Low as target	4LikelyLikely	3SignificantSignificant	12	Library
Low	Mass displacement S08	Geopolitical and security	—	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 3 ranked scenarios to which China is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.

Government effectiveness Soft

3 High · 0 Med

Industry, trade and supply Economic

3 High · 0 Med

Influence and cohesion Soft

2 High · 1 Med

Macro-financial Economic

2 High · 1 Med

Critical technology Hard

2 High · 0 Med

Defence and security Hard

1 High · 2 Med

Strategic infrastructure Hard

1 High · 2 Med

Energy and resources Economic

1 High · 1 Med

Human capital Soft

1 High · 0 Med