Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

Exposure	Scenario	Family	Rationale	L2y	Nat	Priority	Rank
High	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	India's crude; Pakistan's LNG	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	2
High	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	4
High	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	LNG and crude imports; power cuts	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	6
High	Digital state leapfrog S23	Technology and infrastructure	India is the origin; neighbours adopt	4LikelyLikely	4MajorMajor	16	Library
High	Pandemic S14	Health	Density, health system capacity	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	8
High	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Indus and Ganges–Brahmaputra basins; rice and wheat	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	9
High	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	—	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	10
High	Disaster in the core S10	Energy, climate and resources	Floods, heat, earthquakes	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	Library
High	Superintelligence takeoff S15	Technology and infrastructure	IT services and outsourcing repriced; large gains from cheap expertise	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	Energy abundance S16	Energy, climate and resources	Cheaper power and a lower import bill for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	IT services and outsourcing exposure	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	7
High	Mass displacement S08	Geopolitical and security	Afghanistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
High	Infrastructure collapse S12	Technology and infrastructure	Pakistan 2023 nationwide blackout; India 2012	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
High	Biomedical breakthroughs S17	Health	Generic manufacturing base; large diabetes burden	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	Emerging-market breakout S20	Economic and trade	India leads; Bangladesh follows	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	100-day pandemic defence S24	Health	India's manufacturing reaches the world; density at home	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	Sovereign debt reset S19	Economic and trade	Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh among the candidates	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
High	Middle East settlement S21	Geopolitical and security	India anchors the corridor; Pakistan's LNG supply secured	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
High	Yield revolution S22	Energy, climate and resources	Large smallholder populations; yield and nutrition gains	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Medium	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	—	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	1
Medium	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	API intermediates, fertiliser	5Highly likelyHighly likely	4SevereSevere	20	3
Medium	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Beneficiary of diversion, exposed to controls	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	5
Medium	Hybrid campaign S06	Geopolitical and security	—	4LikelyLikely	3SignificantSignificant	12	Library
Medium	Great-power détente S18	Geopolitical and security	India loses some diversion gains and leverage	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 7 ranked scenarios to which South Asia is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.

Government effectiveness Soft

7 High · 0 Med

Influence and cohesion Soft

5 High · 2 Med

Macro-financial Economic

5 High · 2 Med

Industry, trade and supply Economic

5 High · 1 Med

Human capital Soft

4 High · 2 Med

Energy and resources Economic

4 High · 1 Med

Defence and security Hard

2 High · 5 Med

Strategic infrastructure Hard

2 High · 4 Med

Critical technology Hard

2 High · 1 Med