Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

Exposure	Scenario	Family	Rationale	L2y	Nat	Priority	Rank
High	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	Export demand, open capital accounts	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	1
High	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	Japan, Korea, Taiwan import most energy by sea	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	2
High	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	Electronics assembly	5Highly likelyHighly likely	4SevereSevere	20	3
High	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Supply-chain hub for both blocs	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	5
High	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Philippines	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	6
High	Pandemic S14	Health	Connectivity; strong prior response capability	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	8
High	Disaster in the core S10	Energy, climate and resources	Typhoons, earthquakes, Pacific cyclones	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	Library
High	Superintelligence takeoff S15	Technology and infrastructure	Chip manufacturing leverage in Taiwan, Korea and Japan; services exporters repriced	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	Energy abundance S16	Energy, climate and resources	Japan, Korea and Taiwan cut import bills; Australia loses coal and gas revenue	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	Services exporters; Japan and Korea's ageing labour markets as mitigant	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	7
High	Biomedical breakthroughs S17	Health	Japan and Korea face the sharpest longevity pressure	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	Great-power détente S18	Geopolitical and security	Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia most exposed to the terms and to lost diversion	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	Emerging-market breakout S20	Economic and trade	Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines among the breakout economies	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	100-day pandemic defence S24	Health	Strong surveillance and prior response capability	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
Medium	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	—	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	4
Medium	Digital state leapfrog S23	Technology and infrastructure	South-East Asian payment links; Pacific islands leap	4LikelyLikely	4MajorMajor	16	Library
Medium	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Rice importers; Pacific islands	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	9
Medium	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	Pacific islands, Laos, Pakistan-adjacent	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	10
Medium	Hybrid campaign S06	Geopolitical and security	Taiwan's cables; Philippine waters	4LikelyLikely	3SignificantSignificant	12	Library
Medium	Mass displacement S08	Geopolitical and security	Myanmar, Pacific climate displacement	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
Medium	Infrastructure collapse S12	Technology and infrastructure	Taiwan's grid concentration	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
Medium	Middle East settlement S21	Geopolitical and security	Japan, Korea and Taiwan gain secure energy routes	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Medium	Yield revolution S22	Energy, climate and resources	Rice importers gain; Australia, Thailand and Vietnam lose export income	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Low	Sovereign debt reset S19	Economic and trade	Laos and Pacific islands among those treated	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 7 ranked scenarios to which Indo-Pacific is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.

Government effectiveness Soft

7 High · 0 Med

Industry, trade and supply Economic

6 High · 1 Med

Macro-financial Economic

5 High · 1 Med

Influence and cohesion Soft

4 High · 2 Med

Critical technology Hard

4 High · 1 Med

Human capital Soft

3 High · 2 Med

Strategic infrastructure Hard

2 High · 4 Med

Energy and resources Economic

2 High · 3 Med

Defence and security Hard

1 High · 6 Med