Scenarios by regional exposure
Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.
| Exposure | Scenario | Family | Rationale | L2y | Nat | Priority | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Global financial crisis S03 | Economic and trade | Currency and commodity channel | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 1 |
| High | Legitimacy crisis S07 | Geopolitical and security | Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 4 |
| High | Digital state leapfrog S23 | Technology and infrastructure | Brazil's Pix as the regional model | 4LikelyLikely | 4MajorMajor | 16 | Library |
| High | Pandemic S14 | Health | — | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 8 |
| High | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Economic and trade | Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 10 |
| High | Disaster in the core S10 | Energy, climate and resources | Hurricanes, earthquakes, El Niño | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | Library |
| High | Mass displacement S08 | Geopolitical and security | Venezuela, Haiti | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | Library |
| High | Infrastructure collapse S12 | Technology and infrastructure | Venezuela 2019; Ecuador 2024 rationing | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Economic and trade | — | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 20 | 3 |
| Medium | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Economic and trade | Commodities; USMCA uncertainty | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere | 16 | 5 |
| Medium | Energy supply shock S09 | Energy, climate and resources | Mixed producers and importers | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere | 16 | 6 |
| Medium | Food and water shock S11 | Energy, climate and resources | Caribbean import dependence; Central American dry corridor | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 9 |
| Medium | Superintelligence takeoff S15 | Technology and infrastructure | Minerals and power as bargaining chips; services exposed | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative | 15 | Library |
| Medium | Energy abundance S16 | Energy, climate and resources | Mineral exporters gain; Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia lose oil income | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative | 15 | Library |
| Medium | AI diffusion shock S13 | Technology and infrastructure | — | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | 7 |
| Medium | Biomedical breakthroughs S17 | Health | Rising chronic disease; uneven systems | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Great-power détente S18 | Geopolitical and security | Mexico loses nearshoring advantage; commodity demand recovers | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Emerging-market breakout S20 | Economic and trade | Mexico and Brazil gain; others stay in the middle-income trap | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | 100-day pandemic defence S24 | Health | Regional plants in Brazil and Argentina | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Sovereign debt reset S19 | Economic and trade | Bolivia, Ecuador and Argentina as candidates | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| Medium | Yield revolution S22 | Energy, climate and resources | Brazil and Argentina lose export income; Central America gains | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| Low | Chokepoint closure S05 | Geopolitical and security | — | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 2 |
| Low | Hybrid campaign S06 | Geopolitical and security | — | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 12 | Library |
| Low | Middle East settlement S21 | Geopolitical and security | Oil exporters lose the premium | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
Regional loading profile
Of the 4 ranked scenarios to which Latin America and Caribbean is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.