Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · ALB

Albania

Baseline index 6.13Rank 95 of 197FoundationalEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years17.9rank 101 of 197 · 3 years: 18.1
Worst case−13.4%Pandemic · tail −12.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−5.9rank 122 of 197 · 3 years: −5.3
Best case+11100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed26%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.90expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock, Hybrid campaign. Highest exposure indicators: youth unemployment rate; internet users as a share of population; public debt relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; remittances relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Albania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.82
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.75
Global financial crisis S03−0.74
AI diffusion shock S13−0.73
Energy supply shock S09−0.54
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.51
Disaster in the core S10−0.50
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.47
Hybrid campaign S06−0.44
Chokepoint closure S05−0.41
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.38
Mass displacement S08−0.26
Food and water shock S11−0.17
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.73−0.82−1.08−0.49▼ 315Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.69−0.75−0.94−0.42▲ 115Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.71−0.74−1.05−0.46▼ 215Investment Attraction & Projection 3.8 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.74−0.73−0.97−0.43▼ 315Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.54−0.54−0.69−0.30▲ 210Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.48−0.51−0.66−0.29▼ 19Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.71−0.50−0.77−0.34▼ 212Energy Infrastructure 4.5 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.65−0.48−0.61−0.28014Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.46−0.47−0.66−0.2909Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.52−0.44−0.57−0.25▼ 47Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.2 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.45−0.41−0.54−0.23▲ 38Maritime Power 1.7 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.55−0.38−0.55−0.24▲ 18Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.2 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.46−0.26−0.40−0.1807Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11Low 0.19−0.17−0.25−0.11▲ 25Resource Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.67−0.45−0.37−1.09−0.96−1.03−0.96−0.94−0.94
Infrastructure collapse−0.70−1.13−0.40−0.40−0.40−1.01−0.94−0.92−0.81
Global financial crisis−0.32−0.38−0.34−0.76−0.76−0.94−1.26−1.08−0.86
AI diffusion shock−0.72−0.42−0.38−1.11−0.83−1.15−0.97−0.54−0.48
Energy supply shock−0.08−0.76−0.28−0.31−0.31−0.71−0.84−0.81−0.72
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.50−0.28−0.25·−0.65−0.63−0.65−0.64−0.96
Disaster in the core−0.03−1.04−0.31−0.77−0.35−0.87−0.46−0.35−0.35
Single-supplier cut-off−0.70−0.26−0.34−0.42·−0.85·−0.87−0.87
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.39−0.22−0.54−0.49−0.67−0.82−0.49−0.56
Hybrid campaign−0.29−0.71−0.77·−0.79−0.74·−0.30−0.30
Chokepoint closure−0.05−0.67−0.56·−0.30−0.64−0.26−0.51−0.66
Legitimacy crisis−0.25·−0.56−0.28−0.65−0.91−0.74··
Mass displacement·−0.27−0.20−0.55−0.45−0.61−0.26−0.03·
Food and water shock−0.02−0.20−0.09−0.24−0.23−0.24−0.11−0.20−0.22

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Albania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+10.8
Middle East settlement S21+9.0
Energy abundance S16+2.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−2.7
Sovereign debt reset S19−3.2
Emerging-market breakout S20−3.6
Great-power détente S18−4.4
Yield revolution S22−8.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.9
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−26.7
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+10.813.72.92087Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+9.013.94.93586Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+2.99.76.818124Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−2.78.311.02392Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−3.27.410.645176Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8.5 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−3.611.114.733171Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−4.413.117.629133Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−8.64.413.021139Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−20.910.731.616109Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−26.710.637.322185Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception