Legitimacy crisis · Results · Macro Scenarios

Typical nation−0.44median change in index, points

Hardest hit−0.77Angola

Lose a domain band132of 197 nations

Worth of best practice+0.17mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

Lowest: Angola, Sudan, Libya. Highest: Japan, South Korea, Germany.

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Governance & Integrity−1.06

Financial Strength−0.88

Information & Influence−0.77

National Security−0.60

Human Capital−0.33

Critical Technology−0.24

Strategic Infrastructure0.00

Production & Innovation0.00

Trade & Investment0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

No responseCurrent plansBest practice

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Region

										Weakest point
Angola	Africa	High 0.95	4.60	3.83	−0.77	−16.8	▼ 3	17 · 1d	19%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.7 · Inception
Sudan	Africa	High 0.85	2.61	1.84	−0.77	−29.5	▼ 3	11 · 2d	8%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Libya	Africa	High 0.83	3.01	2.26	−0.74	−24.8	▼ 6	19	9%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 0.2 · Inception
Congo	Africa	High 0.88	3.19	2.46	−0.73	−22.9	▼ 6	19 · 3d	13%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Somalia	Africa	High 0.93	1.62	0.90	−0.73	−44.7	▼ 1	3	7%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Haiti	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.91	2.03	1.30	−0.72	−35.6	▼ 3	3	8%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Zimbabwe	Africa	High 0.85	4.34	3.64	−0.69	−15.9	▼ 1	13 · 3d	19%	Monetary & Currency Capability 0.9 · Inception
Equatorial Guinea	Africa	High 0.80	2.80	2.11	−0.69	−24.8	0	17 · 2d	7%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Djibouti	Africa	High 0.81	3.20	2.52	−0.68	−21.4	▼ 3	15 · 3d	12%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.5 · Inception
DR Congo	Africa	High 0.81	2.87	2.19	−0.68	−23.6	▼ 2	15 · 4d	13%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.6 · Inception
Algeria	Africa	High 0.85	6.96	6.29	−0.67	−9.7	▼ 6	16 · 2d	23%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.7 · Nascent
Gabon	Africa	High 0.81	3.94	3.27	−0.67	−17.0	▼ 7	16 · 1d	16%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.3 · Inception
Venezuela	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.76	4.55	3.89	−0.66	−14.5	0	18 · 2d	14%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.8 · Inception
Eswatini	Africa	High 0.84	3.71	3.05	−0.66	−17.9	▼ 3	12	15%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Mauritania	Africa	High 0.81	3.58	2.93	−0.66	−18.3	▼ 2	8 · 1d	18%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1 · Inception
Syria	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.76	2.22	1.57	−0.65	−29.2	▼ 2	11 · 2d	6%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
South Sudan	Africa	High 0.91	1.38	0.72	−0.65	−47.3	0	3	6%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Guinea	Africa	High 0.76	3.15	2.51	−0.64	−20.2	▼ 2	16 · 3d	14%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.4 · Inception
Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.79	3.72	3.09	−0.63	−16.9	▼ 2	8 · 2d	18%	Monetary & Currency Capability 1.1 · Inception
Lesotho	Africa	High 0.86	3.43	2.80	−0.63	−18.4	▼ 2	11	20%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Eritrea	Africa	High 0.76	2.01	1.38	−0.63	−31.3	▼ 1	5 · 1d	4%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Tajikistan	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.74	4.01	3.39	−0.62	−15.4	▼ 3	11	14%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.4 · Inception
Tunisia	Africa	High 0.86	7.71	7.11	−0.61	−7.9	▼ 1	14	30%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.9 · Nascent
Cameroon	Africa	High 0.73	4.39	3.78	−0.61	−13.8	▼ 2	14 · 1d	17%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.9 · Inception
Burkina Faso	Africa	High 0.75	3.47	2.87	−0.60	−17.3	0	11 · 1d	17%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.5 · Inception
Niger	Africa	High 0.72	3.07	2.48	−0.60	−19.4	▼ 2	16 · 4d	15%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.2 · Inception
Chad	Africa	High 0.72	2.26	1.66	−0.60	−26.6	▼ 1	16 · 2d	11%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.1 · Inception
Yemen	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.76	1.62	1.02	−0.60	−37.1	0	5	5%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Ethiopia	Africa	High 0.75	5.70	5.10	−0.59	−10.4	▼ 4	21 · 2d	22%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.9 · Nascent
Nepal	South Asia	High 0.81	4.96	4.38	−0.59	−11.8	▼ 1	10 · 2d	28%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception
Iraq	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.72	4.69	4.11	−0.59	−12.5	▼ 2	10	20%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.9 · Inception
Nicaragua	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.68	4.37	3.78	−0.59	−13.4	▼ 2	16 · 3d	14%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.2 · Inception
Mozambique	Africa	High 0.74	4.12	3.53	−0.59	−14.3	▼ 2	9	21%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception
Suriname	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.82	4.04	3.45	−0.59	−14.5	▼ 3	11 · 1d	25%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.1 · Inception
Burundi	Africa	High 0.73	2.48	1.90	−0.59	−23.6	0	15 · 3d	13%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.4 · Inception
Namibia	Africa	High 0.88	5.95	5.37	−0.58	−9.7	▼ 5	10 · 1d	35%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 · Inception
Zambia	Africa	High 0.81	4.93	4.35	−0.58	−11.8	▼ 2	15	28%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception
Madagascar	Africa	High 0.73	3.90	3.32	−0.58	−14.9	▼ 4	8 · 1d	20%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.6 · Inception
Gambia	Africa	High 0.80	3.32	2.74	−0.58	−17.6	▼ 1	10 · 2d	23%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.1 · Inception
Central African Rep.	Africa	High 0.73	1.66	1.08	−0.58	−34.9	0	6	9%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Pakistan	South Asia	High 0.78	7.96	7.38	−0.57	−7.2	▼ 1	15 · 1d	29%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.1 · Nascent
Bangladesh	South Asia	High 0.74	6.73	6.16	−0.57	−8.4	▼ 3	18	25%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 · Nascent
Honduras	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.72	5.05	4.48	−0.57	−11.3	▼ 2	19 · 4d	22%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 · Inception
Mali	Africa	High 0.70	3.41	2.84	−0.57	−16.8	0	12 · 1d	15%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.2 · Inception
Malawi	Africa	High 0.77	3.76	3.20	−0.56	−14.9	▼ 2	9 · 2d	25%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.6 · Inception
Guinea-Bissau	Africa	High 0.69	2.07	1.52	−0.56	−26.8	▼ 1	11 · 1d	11%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Afghanistan	South Asia	High 0.74	1.46	0.90	−0.56	−38.4	▲ 1	6	6%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Egypt	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.70	8.98	8.43	−0.55	−6.1	▼ 4	19 · 2d	24%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.4 · Nascent
Rwanda	Africa	High 0.76	5.95	5.40	−0.55	−9.2	▼ 3	14 · 1d	28%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 · Nascent
Guyana	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.75	4.53	3.98	−0.55	−12.1	▲ 2	13 · 2d	26%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.7 · Inception
Iran	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.67	8.17	7.63	−0.54	−6.6	▼ 2	14 · 1d	22%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.8 · Inception
Botswana	Africa	High 0.83	6.08	5.54	−0.54	−8.9	▼ 1	11 · 2d	35%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.4 · Inception
Uganda	Africa	High 0.71	5.53	4.99	−0.54	−9.7	0	14 · 3d	25%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.4 · Nascent
Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.79	3.76	3.22	−0.54	−14.3	0	9 · 2d	25%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Sierra Leone	Africa	High 0.74	3.59	3.06	−0.54	−15.0	0	8 · 1d	24%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.6 · Inception
São Tomé & Príncipe	Africa	High 0.77	2.85	2.32	−0.54	−18.8	▲ 1	11 · 1d	20%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Nigeria	Africa	High 0.76	7.43	6.90	−0.53	−7.1	▼ 2	13 · 3d	32%	Internal Security & Order 5.8 · Nascent
Antigua & Barbuda	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.79	4.36	3.83	−0.53	−12.2	▲ 1	9 · 2d	27%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.6 · Inception
Belize	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.76	4.03	3.50	−0.53	−13.2	▲ 1	9 · 2d	25%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.3 · Inception
Liberia	Africa	High 0.71	2.93	2.41	−0.53	−18.0	▼ 2	13 · 2d	20%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.3 · Inception
Kenya	Africa	High 0.77	7.18	6.66	−0.52	−7.2	▼ 1	12	34%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.1 · Foundational
Paraguay	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.71	5.79	5.27	−0.52	−9.0	▼ 1	12	28%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent
Lebanon	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.65	4.66	4.13	−0.52	−11.3	0	14 · 3d	21%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.5 · Inception
Togo	Africa	High 0.65	4.05	3.53	−0.52	−12.9	▼ 1	11	18%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.4 · Inception
Argentina	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.82	9.25	8.74	−0.51	−5.5	0	14 · 3d	40%	Monetary & Currency Capability 4.8 · Nascent
Cuba	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.62	5.95	5.44	−0.51	−8.6	▲ 1	16 · 2d	19%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.5 · Inception
Côte d'Ivoire	Africa	High 0.67	5.42	4.91	−0.51	−9.4	0	11 · 2d	25%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.5 · Nascent
Myanmar	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.56	3.89	3.38	−0.51	−13.1	▼ 1	15 · 3d	9%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Saint Kitts & Nevis	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.74	3.83	3.32	−0.51	−13.2	▲ 1	9 · 2d	25%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.3 · Inception
Turkmenistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.56	3.55	3.04	−0.51	−14.4	0	14 · 3d	7%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0 · Inception
Morocco	Africa	High 0.72	9.36	8.86	−0.50	−5.4	0	4 · 2d	31%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.5 · Foundational
Jamaica	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.75	6.24	5.74	−0.50	−8.0	▼ 1	14 · 2d	34%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.9 · Nascent
Tanzania	Africa	High 0.67	5.82	5.33	−0.50	−8.5	▼ 2	8 · 1d	27%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.9 · Nascent
Comoros	Africa	High 0.64	2.29	1.78	−0.50	−22.0	0	12 · 3d	14%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
South Africa	Africa	High 0.86	10.77	10.29	−0.49	−4.5	▼ 3	14	45%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 8.3 · Foundational
Uzbekistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.60	5.92	5.43	−0.49	−8.4	0	16 · 2d	18%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.5 · Inception
Guatemala	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.64	5.67	5.18	−0.49	−8.6	▲ 1	12 · 2d	25%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.9 · Inception
Bolivia	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.67	5.11	4.61	−0.49	−9.7	▼ 1	12	27%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.2 · Nascent
Colombia	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.77	9.11	8.63	−0.48	−5.3	▼ 2	11 · 1d	39%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.6 · Foundational
Jordan	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.65	7.50	7.02	−0.48	−6.4	▼ 1	14 · 1d	28%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.6 · Nascent
Ghana	Africa	High 0.74	6.98	6.50	−0.48	−6.9	0	13 · 1d	36%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 · Nascent
Dominican Republic	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.70	6.82	6.34	−0.48	−7.1	0	17 · 3d	32%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.9 · Nascent
Maldives	South Asia	High 0.66	4.62	4.14	−0.48	−10.5	▲ 2	19 · 1d	25%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 2.5 · Inception
Benin	Africa	High 0.63	4.09	3.61	−0.48	−11.6	▲ 1	10 · 1d	24%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.9 · Inception
Sri Lanka	South Asia	High 0.68	7.25	6.78	−0.47	−6.5	▼ 1	16 · 1d	32%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.9 · Nascent
Cabo Verde	Africa	High 0.75	4.72	4.25	−0.47	−10.0	▼ 1	14 · 2d	33%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.5 · Inception
Bhutan	South Asia	High 0.68	3.93	3.46	−0.47	−12.0	▲ 2	10 · 1d	26%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.8 · Inception
Dominica	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.70	3.87	3.41	−0.47	−12.0	▲ 3	8	26%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Saint Lucia	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.68	3.85	3.39	−0.47	−12.1	▲ 2	10 · 1d	25%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.1 · Inception
Panama	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.68	7.17	6.71	−0.46	−6.4	▲ 1	10 · 3d	33%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 3 · Inception
Grenada	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.67	4.04	3.58	−0.46	−11.4	▲ 2	8 · 1d	26%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Marshall Islands	Indo-Pacific	High 0.65	2.48	2.02	−0.46	−18.5	▲ 2	7	18%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Tuvalu	Indo-Pacific	High 0.67	2.12	1.65	−0.46	−21.9	▲ 1	3	18%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
India	South Asia	High 0.76	12.61	12.17	−0.45	−3.6	0	13	43%	Internal Security & Order 8.7 · Foundational
Ecuador	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.64	6.76	6.30	−0.45	−6.7	▲ 1	11 · 2d	31%	Monetary & Currency Capability 3.7 · Nascent
El Salvador	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.58	5.68	5.23	−0.45	−8.0	▲ 1	17 · 2d	23%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 · Nascent
Vanuatu	Indo-Pacific	High 0.62	2.93	2.47	−0.45	−15.5	▲ 1	10 · 1d	21%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.5 · Inception
Kiribati	Indo-Pacific	High 0.64	2.20	1.76	−0.45	−20.4	▲ 2	8	17%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Bahamas	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.65	5.16	4.73	−0.44	−8.4	▼ 3	12 · 1d	30%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.3 · Inception
Laos	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.52	3.70	3.26	−0.44	−12.0	▲ 4	10 · 1d	13%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 · Inception
Micronesia	Indo-Pacific	High 0.62	2.33	1.88	−0.44	−19.0	▲ 1	8	18%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Uruguay	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.78	8.54	8.12	−0.43	−5.0	▼ 1	8 · 1d	46%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 · Nascent
Kyrgyzstan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.55	4.77	4.34	−0.43	−9.0	▼ 1	13 · 1d	23%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7 · Inception
Kuwait	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.54	7.51	7.09	−0.42	−5.6	0	12	24%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.8 · Nascent
Belarus	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.48	6.90	6.48	−0.42	−6.1	▲ 1	12 · 1d	16%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 · Inception
Senegal	Africa	High 0.62	6.42	5.99	−0.42	−6.6	▼ 1	13	33%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.1 · Nascent
Brunei	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.49	5.60	5.18	−0.42	−7.6	▲ 1	12 · 1d	15%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.7 · Inception
Barbados	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.65	5.56	5.14	−0.42	−7.5	▲ 1	4 · 2d	33%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.4 · Inception
Türkiye	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.61	12.18	11.77	−0.41	−3.3	▼ 1	15 · 1d	36%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.5 · Foundational
Peru	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.63	8.61	8.19	−0.41	−4.8	▼ 1	15 · 3d	35%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.8 · Nascent
Mauritius	Africa	High 0.67	8.08	7.67	−0.41	−5.1	▲ 1	12 · 1d	40%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 2.1 · Inception
Oman	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.52	8.03	7.61	−0.41	−5.1	0	15	23%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Seychelles	Africa	High 0.62	5.27	4.87	−0.41	−7.7	▼ 1	13 · 2d	32%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.1 · Inception
Fiji	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.59	5.16	4.75	−0.41	−8.0	▼ 1	9 · 1d	29%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent
Nauru	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.57	1.96	1.55	−0.41	−20.9	▲ 3	8	15%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Brazil	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.73	11.69	11.29	−0.40	−3.4	▼ 2	12 · 2d	46%	Internal Security & Order 9.5 · Transitional
Chile	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.75	10.61	10.22	−0.40	−3.7	▼ 1	5 · 2d	49%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.2 · Foundational
Azerbaijan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.50	6.79	6.39	−0.40	−6.0	▲ 2	6 · 2d	20%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.5 · Nascent
Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.60	5.73	5.33	−0.40	−7.0	▲ 2	5 · 1d	32%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.1 · Nascent
North Korea	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.44	4.26	3.86	−0.40	−9.4	▲ 5	8	8%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Mexico	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.64	10.85	10.46	−0.39	−3.6	▼ 3	12 · 1d	40%	Internal Security & Order 7.9 · Foundational
Trinidad & Tobago	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.58	6.69	6.30	−0.39	−5.9	▲ 2	16 · 1d	34%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.2 · Nascent
North Macedonia	Europe	Medium 0.58	6.61	6.22	−0.39	−5.9	▲ 1	10 · 3d	34%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.8 · Nascent
Montenegro	Europe	Medium 0.58	6.35	5.96	−0.39	−6.2	▼ 1	7 · 3d	34%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.5 · Nascent
Holy See	Europe	High 0.60	1.85	1.45	−0.39	−21.3	▲ 2	6 · 1d	18%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Kazakhstan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.50	8.14	7.76	−0.38	−4.7	▲ 1	14 · 2d	26%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.5 · Nascent
Albania	Europe	Medium 0.55	6.13	5.76	−0.38	−6.1	▲ 1	8 · 3d	32%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.2 · Nascent
Costa Rica	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.67	7.76	7.39	−0.37	−4.8	▲ 1	13 · 3d	45%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.2 · Inception
Solomon Islands	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.50	2.91	2.54	−0.37	−12.8	▲ 7	3	20%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.5 · Inception
Russia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.48	12.30	11.94	−0.36	−2.9	0	8	29%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.6 · Nascent
Saudi Arabia	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.49	11.19	10.83	−0.36	−3.2	0	10 · 2d	28%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.3 · Inception
Vietnam	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.47	9.68	9.32	−0.36	−3.7	▼ 1	10 · 1d	25%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent
Serbia	Europe	Medium 0.55	8.97	8.61	−0.36	−4.0	▼ 1	11	37%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 · Foundational
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	Medium 0.50	5.80	5.43	−0.36	−6.2	▲ 4	4 · 1d	29%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 · Nascent
Samoa	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.52	3.48	3.12	−0.36	−10.2	▲ 5	7 · 2d	25%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.2 · Inception
Tonga	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.49	3.21	2.85	−0.36	−11.2	▲ 3	6 · 2d	22%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.8 · Inception
Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.56	7.55	7.19	−0.35	−4.6	▲ 1	14 · 1d	38%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.6 · Foundational
Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.51	6.65	6.30	−0.35	−5.3	▲ 2	10 · 1d	32%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.6 · Nascent
Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.41	4.93	4.58	−0.35	−7.0	▲ 3	11 · 1d	16%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.2 · Nascent
Romania	Europe	Medium 0.56	10.16	9.83	−0.34	−3.3	0	6	42%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.3 · Foundational
Indonesia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.55	9.97	9.62	−0.34	−3.5	▼ 1	8	39%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 · Foundational
Philippines	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.50	8.83	8.50	−0.34	−3.8	▲ 1	11 · 2d	34%	Internal Security & Order 7.3 · Foundational
Kosovo	Europe	Medium 0.48	4.70	4.36	−0.34	−7.3	▲ 3	5	27%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 · Nascent
Papua New Guinea	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.44	3.80	3.46	−0.34	−9.0	▲ 9	8	21%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 · Inception
Timor-Leste	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.47	2.98	2.64	−0.34	−11.4	▲ 5	7 · 1d	22%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.9 · Inception
Greece	Europe	Medium 0.51	10.61	10.30	−0.31	−2.9	▲ 1	10	42%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.8 · Foundational
Hungary	Europe	Medium 0.49	10.51	10.20	−0.31	−3.0	▼ 1	12	37%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.4 · Foundational
Ukraine	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.53	9.40	9.09	−0.31	−3.3	▼ 1	8 · 1d	43%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 · Foundational
Palau	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.45	2.84	2.53	−0.31	−10.9	▲ 9	6 · 2d	23%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.48	11.48	11.18	−0.30	−2.6	0	8 · 1d	38%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8.4 · Foundational
Monaco	Europe	Medium 0.46	5.91	5.61	−0.30	−5.1	▲ 5	6	32%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.7 · Inception
Slovakia	Europe	Medium 0.50	10.10	9.81	−0.29	−2.9	0	11 · 4d	43%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.5 · Foundational
Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.35	7.32	7.03	−0.29	−3.9	▲ 2	8	19%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.2 · Nascent
Croatia	Europe	Medium 0.48	9.53	9.25	−0.28	−2.9	0	13 · 2d	42%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.5 · Foundational
Cyprus	Europe	Medium 0.46	8.51	8.23	−0.28	−3.3	▲ 2	12	40%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.5 · Nascent
Bulgaria	Europe	Medium 0.42	8.95	8.68	−0.27	−3.0	▲ 3	8 · 1d	38%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.2 · Foundational
United Arab Emirates	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.37	11.94	11.68	−0.26	−2.2	0	10 · 1d	30%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.6 · Inception
Andorra	Europe	Medium 0.47	5.15	4.89	−0.26	−5.1	▲ 3	9	36%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Spain	Europe	Medium 0.52	13.78	13.53	−0.25	−1.8	0	4	53%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 12.3 · Established
Belgium	Europe	Medium 0.52	13.46	13.21	−0.25	−1.9	0	8 · 1d	54%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.3 · Transitional
Luxembourg	Europe	Medium 0.51	10.79	10.54	−0.25	−2.3	▲ 1	6 · 2d	52%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 3.9 · Nascent
Moldova	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.38	6.34	6.09	−0.25	−3.9	▲ 2	7 · 4d	35%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 6.6 · Foundational
Israel	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.48	14.46	14.21	−0.24	−1.7	0	9 · 1d	51%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 12.3 · Established
Italy	Europe	Medium 0.45	13.72	13.48	−0.24	−1.7	0	5 · 1d	48%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 11.6 · Transitional
Poland	Europe	Medium 0.44	12.39	12.16	−0.24	−1.9	0	7	47%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 11.6 · Transitional
Portugal	Europe	Medium 0.48	11.68	11.44	−0.24	−2.1	▲ 1	5 · 1d	51%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 10.6 · Transitional
Estonia	Europe	Medium 0.53	11.49	11.25	−0.24	−2.1	0	7 · 1d	56%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 · Transitional
Iceland	Europe	Medium 0.48	9.63	9.40	−0.24	−2.5	▲ 1	7 · 2d	52%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.6 · Inception
Liechtenstein	Europe	Medium 0.44	7.22	6.98	−0.23	−3.2	▲ 2	7 · 1d	42%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Thailand	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.34	10.70	10.48	−0.22	−2.0	▲ 2	7	36%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.4 · Foundational
Latvia	Europe	Medium 0.41	9.89	9.68	−0.22	−2.2	▲ 1	7 · 2d	48%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9 · Transitional
Malta	Europe	Medium 0.36	8.89	8.67	−0.22	−2.4	▲ 3	5 · 3d	41%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 4.7 · Nascent
China	China	Low 0.32	15.64	15.43	−0.21	−1.4	0	5	35%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 · Nascent
Sweden	Europe	Medium 0.55	15.30	15.09	−0.21	−1.4	0	7	62%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.4 · Established
New Zealand	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.51	12.83	12.62	−0.21	−1.6	0	13	60%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.1 · Transitional
Austria	Europe	Medium 0.43	12.81	12.60	−0.21	−1.6	0	6 · 1d	53%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.4 · Transitional
Ireland	Europe	Medium 0.45	12.08	11.87	−0.21	−1.7	▲ 1	9 · 1d	55%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 6.7 · Foundational
Czechia	Europe	Medium 0.40	11.51	11.30	−0.21	−1.8	▲ 1	6	48%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.7 · Transitional
Lithuania	Europe	Medium 0.42	10.75	10.54	−0.21	−2.0	▲ 2	6	50%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10 · Transitional
Slovenia	Europe	Medium 0.38	10.48	10.27	−0.21	−2.0	▲ 2	3 · 1d	47%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.4 · Foundational
San Marino	Europe	Medium 0.37	5.03	4.81	−0.21	−4.2	▲ 4	4	36%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 1 · Inception
France	Europe	Medium 0.49	16.64	16.44	−0.20	−1.2	0	1	60%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15.1 · Advanced
Singapore	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.38	15.20	15.00	−0.20	−1.3	0	10 · 2d	49%	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 9.8 · Transitional
Qatar	Gulf and Middle East	Low 0.27	9.39	9.19	−0.20	−2.2	▲ 1	4	27%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
United Kingdom	Europe	Medium 0.47	16.45	16.27	−0.19	−1.1	0	4	62%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 13.5 · Established
Canada	North America	Medium 0.45	15.06	14.87	−0.19	−1.2	0	5	60%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.5 · Transitional
Australia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.46	14.95	14.76	−0.19	−1.3	0	4	60%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.8 · Transitional
Finland	Europe	Medium 0.49	14.52	14.33	−0.19	−1.3	0	5	62%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.1 · Established
United States	North America	Medium 0.45	18.03	17.85	−0.18	−1.0	0	4 · 2d	61%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14 · Established
Norway	Europe	Medium 0.46	14.62	14.44	−0.18	−1.2	0	4	61%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.5 · Established
Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.38	14.03	13.85	−0.18	−1.3	0	6 · 1d	55%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.8 · Established
Netherlands	Europe	Medium 0.42	15.50	15.32	−0.17	−1.1	0	2 · 1d	60%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 13.2 · Established
Denmark	Europe	Medium 0.43	13.94	13.77	−0.17	−1.2	0	5	61%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.5 · Transitional
Switzerland	Europe	Medium 0.35	14.73	14.58	−0.16	−1.1	0	2	57%	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.2 · Established
Japan	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.32	16.26	16.11	−0.15	−0.9	0	5	56%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.9 · Transitional
South Korea	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.33	16.00	15.86	−0.15	−0.9	0	3	58%	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.6 · Established
Germany	Europe	Medium 0.35	16.36	16.22	−0.14	−0.9	0	4	62%	Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.9 · Transitional

Settings of this run

Load: 9 capability groups singled out, 49 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out: Force Generation & MobilisationHighInformation Environment & Strategic CommunicationHighPolitical Institutions & Civic ParticipationHighJustice System & Fundamental RightsHighInternal Security & OrderHighGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighTransparency, Oversight & AccountabilityHighMonetary & Currency CapabilityHighFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceHigh
Buffers: Political Institutions & Civic ParticipationJustice System & Fundamental RightsPublic Integrity & Anti-CorruptionTransparency, Oversight & AccountabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication
Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.
Exposure: regional exposure (40%); youth unemployment rate (ranked) (25%); share of population aged under 15 (ranked) (20%); consumer price inflation (ranked) (15%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood: 22 per cent over three years and 40 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results

Political legitimacy crisis