Scenarios 2027 / Results / S22

Capture test · S22 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Agricultural yield revolution

C Energy, climate and resources↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers29net position above +10
Mixed116between the two
Losers52net position below -10
Largest net gain+27Kenya

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−30−20−100+10+20Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: −1.1Canada: −5.9North America mean: −3.5Europe 42France: +1.4United Kingdom: +4.6Germany: +5.1Netherlands: +2.8Sweden: +2.6Switzerland: +1.5Norway: −0.3Finland: +3.1Denmark: +1.6Spain: +2.4Italy: +1.7Belgium: +1.3Austria: +0.9Poland: +1.0Ireland: −1.8Portugal: +0.3Czechia: −0.1Estonia: 0.0Luxembourg: −4.0Lithuania: −1.6Greece: −2.0Hungary: −0.2Slovenia: −1.5Romania: −2.1Slovakia: −1.7Latvia: −2.6Iceland: −5.2Croatia: −4.0Serbia: −2.4Bulgaria: −3.5Malta: −5.3Cyprus: −6.8Liechtenstein: −7.6North Macedonia: −7.4Montenegro: −8.9Albania: −8.6Monaco: −11.6Bosnia & Herzegovina: −9.4Andorra: −12.7San Marino: −11.6Kosovo: −11.0Holy See: −18.1Europe mean: −2.9China 1China: +19.8China mean: +19.8Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +15.4South Korea: +13.5Singapore: +7.3Australia: −2.2Taiwan: +13.5New Zealand: +6.3Malaysia: +6.7Thailand: −4.3Indonesia: +7.1Vietnam: −6.0Philippines: +3.8Mongolia: −7.2Brunei: −11.4Fiji: −8.2Cambodia: −6.7North Korea: −7.6Myanmar: −8.8Papua New Guinea: −7.1Laos: −7.4Samoa: −8.7Tonga: −10.5Timor-Leste: −10.8Vanuatu: −11.3Solomon Islands: −12.3Palau: −14.4Marshall Islands: −14.7Micronesia: −12.3Kiribati: −12.5Tuvalu: −15.2Nauru: −15.6Indo-Pacific mean: −4.7South Asia 8India: +26.3Pakistan: +22.3Sri Lanka: +11.6Bangladesh: +14.1Nepal: +6.2Maldives: +3.4Bhutan: +1.8Afghanistan: +0.4South Asia mean: +10.8IndiaGulf and Middle East 16Israel: +15.2Türkiye: +14.2United Arab Emirates: +9.1Saudi Arabia: +8.9Qatar: +4.4Egypt: +25.5Iran: +25.1Oman: +5.6Kuwait: +3.8Jordan: +10.0Bahrain: +2.9Iraq: +3.4Lebanon: +4.8Palestine: +6.7Syria: +1.7Yemen: +0.1Gulf and Middle East mean: +8.8EgyptAfrica 53South Africa: +25.5Morocco: +19.9Mauritius: +11.7Tunisia: +16.6Nigeria: +22.3Kenya: +26.6Ghana: +13.7Algeria: +23.1Senegal: +23.8Botswana: +7.0Namibia: +8.8Rwanda: +19.0Tanzania: +14.4Ethiopia: +15.0Uganda: +14.9Côte d'Ivoire: +10.3Seychelles: +4.3Zambia: +8.3Cabo Verde: +4.3Angola: +8.6Cameroon: +11.3Zimbabwe: +10.7Mozambique: +9.2Benin: +9.6Togo: +9.8Gabon: +2.8Madagascar: +12.5Malawi: +6.6Eswatini: +3.5Sierra Leone: +8.8Mauritania: +8.6Burkina Faso: +4.7Lesotho: +3.7Mali: +4.3Gambia: +5.8Djibouti: +4.2Congo: +5.1Guinea: +6.4Niger: +7.1Libya: +2.2Liberia: +4.5DR Congo: +3.4São Tomé & Príncipe: +3.0Equatorial Guinea: +2.7Sudan: +6.7Burundi: +0.2Comoros: +2.2Chad: −0.5Guinea-Bissau: +1.1Eritrea: +1.5Central African Rep.: −1.3Somalia: 0.0South Sudan: −1.9Africa mean: +8.6KenyaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −10.8Mexico: +4.4Chile: −0.4Argentina: −12.6Colombia: −2.9Peru: −2.4Uruguay: −20.2Costa Rica: −6.2Panama: −9.4Dominican Republic: −10.2Ecuador: −8.9Trinidad & Tobago: −11.9Jamaica: −10.6Cuba: −3.0Paraguay: −37.7El Salvador: −12.1Guatemala: −11.9Barbados: −15.2Bahamas: −18.2Bolivia: −15.0Honduras: −13.7Venezuela: −7.8Guyana: −19.5Nicaragua: −15.6Antigua & Barbuda: −19.4Grenada: −16.4Suriname: −18.7Belize: −18.7Dominica: −19.6Saint Lucia: −17.8Saint Kitts & Nevis: −19.0Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −16.0Haiti: −21.1Latin America and Caribbean mean: −13.3ParaguayRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −19.8Ukraine: −36.8Kazakhstan: −22.8Georgia: −17.2Belarus: −18.6Azerbaijan: −21.4Armenia: −20.0Moldova: −20.0Uzbekistan: −18.6Kyrgyzstan: −24.3Tajikistan: −23.6Turkmenistan: −26.6Russia and Eurasia mean: −22.5UkraineTurkmenistan
Lowest: Paraguay, Ukraine, Turkmenistan. Highest: Egypt, India, Kenya.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−200+20Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 83.9, net position −1.10France (Europe): readiness 81.6, net position +1.40United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 76.2, net position +4.60Germany (Europe): readiness 80.9, net position +5.10Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 83.3, net position +15.40South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 81.1, net position +13.50China (China): readiness 73.7, net position +19.80Netherlands (Europe): readiness 83.7, net position +2.80Sweden (Europe): readiness 71, net position +2.60Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 67.8, net position +7.30Canada (North America): readiness 77.9, net position −5.90Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 77.1, net position −2.20Switzerland (Europe): readiness 67.1, net position +1.50Norway (Europe): readiness 68.2, net position −0.30Finland (Europe): readiness 71.3, net position +3.10Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 68, net position +15.20Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 70.7, net position +13.50Denmark (Europe): readiness 77, net position +1.60Spain (Europe): readiness 71.5, net position +2.40Italy (Europe): readiness 69, net position +1.70Belgium (Europe): readiness 70.5, net position +1.30New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 61, net position +6.30Austria (Europe): readiness 63.7, net position +0.90India (South Asia): readiness 57, net position +26.30Poland (Europe): readiness 60.2, net position +1.00Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 58.1, net position −19.80Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 58.2, net position +14.20Ireland (Europe): readiness 61.3, net position −1.80United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 52.8, net position +9.10Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 58, net position −10.80Portugal (Europe): readiness 56.5, net position +0.30Czechia (Europe): readiness 55.6, net position −0.10Estonia (Europe): readiness 50.3, net position 0.00Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 54.6, net position +6.70Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 50.6, net position +8.90Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 53.8, net position +4.40Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 41.8, net position −4.00South Africa (Africa): readiness 55.6, net position +25.50Lithuania (Europe): readiness 50.1, net position −1.60Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 51.7, net position −4.30Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 46.1, net position −0.40Greece (Europe): readiness 47.2, net position −2.00Hungary (Europe): readiness 54.3, net position −0.20Slovenia (Europe): readiness 50.5, net position −1.50Romania (Europe): readiness 48.4, net position −2.10Slovakia (Europe): readiness 44, net position −1.70Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.6, net position +7.10Latvia (Europe): readiness 42.1, net position −2.60Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.5, net position −6.00Iceland (Europe): readiness 44, net position −5.20Croatia (Europe): readiness 40.8, net position −4.00Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 41.6, net position −36.80Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 36.9, net position +4.40Morocco (Africa): readiness 41.9, net position +19.90Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 50, net position −12.60Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.9, net position −2.90Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 45, net position +25.50Serbia (Europe): readiness 41.7, net position −2.40Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 41.5, net position −3.50Malta (Europe): readiness 37.5, net position −5.30Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 37.9, net position +3.80Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38.2, net position −2.40Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38.2, net position −20.20Cyprus (Europe): readiness 34.3, net position −6.80Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 40, net position +25.10Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 37.3, net position −22.80Mauritius (Africa): readiness 33.7, net position +11.70Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 31.1, net position +5.60Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 36.9, net position +22.30Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.5, net position −6.20Tunisia (Africa): readiness 38.6, net position +16.60Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.6, net position −17.20Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.6, net position +3.80Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 32, net position +10.00Nigeria (Africa): readiness 33.1, net position +22.30Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 26.1, net position +2.90Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 31.5, net position +11.60Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 24.7, net position −7.60Kenya (Africa): readiness 32.6, net position +26.60Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.3, net position −9.40Ghana (Africa): readiness 31.1, net position +13.70Algeria (Africa): readiness 31.6, net position +23.10Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.1, net position −18.60Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.1, net position −10.20Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25.3, net position −21.40Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.1, net position −8.90Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 34.1, net position +14.10Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.6, net position −11.90Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25.1, net position −20.00North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 25.4, net position −7.40Senegal (Africa): readiness 30.3, net position +23.80Montenegro (Europe): readiness 24, net position −8.90Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 26.1, net position −20.00Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.5, net position −10.60Albania (Europe): readiness 20.8, net position −8.60Botswana (Africa): readiness 22, net position +7.00Namibia (Africa): readiness 23.3, net position +8.80Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.4, net position −3.00Rwanda (Africa): readiness 27.6, net position +19.00Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.7, net position −18.60Monaco (Europe): readiness 21.3, net position −11.60Tanzania (Africa): readiness 25.5, net position +14.40Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 21.6, net position −9.40Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.8, net position −37.70Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21, net position −7.20Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 24, net position +15.00El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.4, net position −12.10Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.2, net position −11.90Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.4, net position −11.40Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.7, net position −15.20Uganda (Africa): readiness 25.8, net position +14.90Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 20.7, net position +10.30Seychelles (Africa): readiness 18.6, net position +4.30Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16, net position −18.20Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.4, net position −8.20Andorra (Europe): readiness 16.9, net position −12.70Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.3, net position −15.00Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.6, net position −13.70San Marino (Europe): readiness 15.2, net position −11.60Nepal (South Asia): readiness 18.4, net position +6.20Zambia (Africa): readiness 20.2, net position +8.30Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.8, net position −6.70Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 18, net position −24.30Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 15.3, net position +4.30Kosovo (Europe): readiness 16.8, net position −11.00Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.2, net position +3.40Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 22.5, net position +4.80Maldives (South Asia): readiness 17.4, net position +3.40Angola (Africa): readiness 15.2, net position +8.60Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.2, net position −7.80Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.8, net position −19.50Cameroon (Africa): readiness 18, net position +11.30Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.4, net position −15.60Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.8, net position −19.40Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position +10.70North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.4, net position −7.60Mozambique (Africa): readiness 17.6, net position +9.20Benin (Africa): readiness 14.3, net position +9.60Togo (Africa): readiness 14.1, net position +9.80Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13, net position −16.40Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.2, net position −18.70Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.9, net position −18.70Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 15.1, net position −23.60Gabon (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position +2.80Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 12.2, net position +1.80Madagascar (Africa): readiness 16.6, net position +12.50Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.8, net position −8.80Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.9, net position −19.60Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.7, net position −17.80Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.5, net position −19.00Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.2, net position −7.10Malawi (Africa): readiness 16.8, net position +6.60Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.1, net position −16.00Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 14.4, net position +6.70Eswatini (Africa): readiness 13.9, net position +3.50Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.1, net position −7.40Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 13.4, net position +8.80Mauritania (Africa): readiness 13.9, net position +8.60Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 13.7, net position −26.60Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.8, net position −8.70Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 13.9, net position +4.70Lesotho (Africa): readiness 12.3, net position +3.70Mali (Africa): readiness 13.7, net position +4.30Gambia (Africa): readiness 13.9, net position +5.80Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.2, net position −10.50Djibouti (Africa): readiness 10.1, net position +4.20Congo (Africa): readiness 11, net position +5.10Guinea (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position +6.40Niger (Africa): readiness 11.5, net position +7.10Libya (Africa): readiness 13, net position +2.20Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.4, net position −10.80Liberia (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position +4.50Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9, net position −11.30Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9, net position −12.30DR Congo (Africa): readiness 12, net position +3.40São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 9.2, net position +3.00Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.4, net position −14.40Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 9, net position +2.70Sudan (Africa): readiness 11.4, net position +6.70Burundi (Africa): readiness 7.1, net position +0.20Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.2, net position −14.70Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.8, net position −12.30Comoros (Africa): readiness 7, net position +2.20Chad (Africa): readiness 6.2, net position −0.50Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 9.4, net position +1.70Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.1, net position −12.50Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.4, net position −15.20Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 6.7, net position +1.10Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.1, net position −21.10Eritrea (Africa): readiness 7.4, net position +1.50Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.2, net position −15.60Holy See (Europe): readiness 5, net position −18.10Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 5, net position −1.30Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5.4, net position +0.10Somalia (Africa): readiness 4.6, net position 0.00Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 5.3, net position +0.40South Sudan (Africa): readiness 3.7, net position −1.90IndiaUkraineEgyptKenyaParaguayTurkmenistan
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: farm income in grain-exporting nations.

Russia and Eurasia 12−22.5
Latin America and Caribbean 33−13.3
Indo-Pacific 30−4.7
North America 2−3.5
Europe 42−2.9
Africa 53+8.6
Gulf and Middle East 16+8.8
South Asia 8+10.8
China 1+19.8

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1KenyaAfricaGainer+26.629.73.13339Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
2IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+26.328.21.95761Technology Adoption & Diffusion 10.5 · Transitional
4EgyptGulf and Middle EastGainer+25.528.32.84544Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational
3South AfricaAfricaGainer+25.527.72.15657Technology Adoption & Diffusion 10.5 · Transitional
5IranGulf and Middle EastGainer+25.128.33.24036Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational
6SenegalAfricaGainer+23.827.03.23036Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
7AlgeriaAfricaGainer+23.126.43.33233Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
9NigeriaAfricaGainer+22.325.53.23336Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
8PakistanSouth AsiaGainer+22.325.53.23735Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 · Foundational
10MoroccoAfricaGainer+19.922.22.34255Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
11ChinaChinaGainer+19.820.91.17479Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
12RwandaAfricaGainer+19.022.33.32835Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
13TunisiaAfricaGainer+16.619.42.83945Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
14JapanIndo-PacificGainer+15.418.22.98386Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16.3 · Advanced
15IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+15.216.71.56871Transport Infrastructure 12.4 · Established
16EthiopiaAfricaGainer+15.018.43.42433Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
17UgandaAfricaGainer+14.918.43.42632Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent
18TanzaniaAfricaGainer+14.417.73.32633Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
19TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+14.216.11.95861Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
20BangladeshSouth AsiaGainer+14.117.23.03439Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
21GhanaAfricaGainer+13.716.83.13138Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
23TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+13.517.94.37178Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established
22South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+13.516.73.38184Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15.8 · Advanced
24MadagascarAfricaGainer+12.516.33.81723Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
25MauritiusAfricaGainer+11.714.12.43452Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
26Sri LankaSouth AsiaGainer+11.614.73.03240Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
27CameroonAfricaGainer+11.315.03.71826Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
28ZimbabweAfricaGainer+10.714.63.91922Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
29Côte d'IvoireAfricaGainer+10.313.63.32134Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
30JordanGulf and Middle EastMixed+10.013.03.13239Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
31TogoAfricaMixed+9.813.53.81425Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
32BeninAfricaMixed+9.613.43.81425Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
33MozambiqueAfricaMixed+9.213.03.81823Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
34United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastMixed+9.110.91.85364Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
35Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastMixed+8.911.12.25157Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
37Sierra LeoneAfricaMixed+8.812.84.01320Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
36NamibiaAfricaMixed+8.812.13.32335Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
39MauritaniaAfricaMixed+8.612.54.01421Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
38AngolaAfricaMixed+8.612.43.81525Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
40ZambiaAfricaMixed+8.312.03.62028Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
41SingaporeIndo-PacificMixed+7.310.53.26884Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
43NigerAfricaMixed+7.111.34.21216Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
42IndonesiaIndo-PacificMixed+7.116.19.04855Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
44BotswanaAfricaMixed+7.010.23.12237Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
47SudanAfricaMixed+6.711.14.41112Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
46PalestineGulf and Middle EastMixed+6.710.84.01419Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
45MalaysiaIndo-PacificMixed+6.713.76.95565Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
48MalawiAfricaMixed+6.610.64.01720Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
49GuineaAfricaMixed+6.410.54.11218Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
50New ZealandIndo-PacificMixed+6.312.96.66167Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
51NepalSouth AsiaMixed+6.29.93.71826Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
52GambiaAfricaMixed+5.89.84.01420Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
53OmanGulf and Middle EastMixed+5.68.42.83144Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
55CongoAfricaMixed+5.19.24.11118Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
54GermanyEuropeMixed+5.17.82.78187Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15.5 · Advanced
56LebanonGulf and Middle EastMixed+4.88.84.02321Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
57Burkina FasoAfricaMixed+4.78.74.01421Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
58United KingdomEuropeMixed+4.68.74.17679Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 14.3 · Established
59LiberiaAfricaMixed+4.58.74.21015Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
61QatarGulf and Middle EastMixed+4.47.02.63748Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
60MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.415.611.25463Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
64MaliAfricaMixed+4.38.34.01420Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
63Cabo VerdeAfricaMixed+4.38.03.71526Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
62SeychellesAfricaMixed+4.37.73.41932Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
65DjiboutiAfricaMixed+4.28.44.11017Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
67KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMixed+3.87.23.42932Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
66PhilippinesIndo-PacificMixed+3.813.910.13850Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
68LesothoAfricaMixed+3.77.63.91221Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
69EswatiniAfricaMixed+3.57.23.71426Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
72DR CongoAfricaMixed+3.47.64.21215Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
71MaldivesSouth AsiaMixed+3.47.13.71726Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
70IraqGulf and Middle EastMixed+3.47.34.01921Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
73FinlandEuropeMixed+3.17.64.57177Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13 · Established
74São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaMixed+3.07.24.1917Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
75BahrainGulf and Middle EastMixed+2.95.83.02640Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
77GabonAfricaMixed+2.86.73.91522Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
76NetherlandsEuropeMixed+2.86.84.08480Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16.5 · Advanced
78Equatorial GuineaAfricaMixed+2.76.94.2917Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
79SwedenEuropeMixed+2.66.53.97180Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 12.5 · Established
80SpainEuropeMixed+2.48.66.17269Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established
82ComorosAfricaMixed+2.26.64.3714Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
81LibyaAfricaMixed+2.26.64.41313Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
83BhutanSouth AsiaMixed+1.85.63.81224Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
85SyriaGulf and Middle EastMixed+1.76.34.699Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
84ItalyEuropeMixed+1.77.86.16970Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
86DenmarkEuropeMixed+1.66.14.47778Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
88EritreaAfricaMixed+1.56.04.5710Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
87SwitzerlandEuropeMixed+1.54.93.46783Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
89FranceEuropeMixed+1.48.97.48281Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 · Advanced
90BelgiumEuropeMixed+1.36.75.47173Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 13.3 · Established
91Guinea-BissauAfricaMixed+1.15.54.4713Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
92PolandEuropeMixed+1.08.07.06065Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional
93AustriaEuropeMixed+0.95.95.06475Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
94AfghanistanSouth AsiaMixed+0.45.04.658Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
95PortugalEuropeMixed+0.37.77.45763Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional
96BurundiAfricaMixed+0.24.54.3714Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
97YemenGulf and Middle EastMixed+0.14.84.757Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
99SomaliaAfricaMixed0.04.64.658Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
98EstoniaEuropeMixed0.07.07.05065Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
100CzechiaEuropeMixed−0.16.97.05665Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
101HungaryEuropeMixed−0.27.77.95460Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional
102NorwayEuropeMixed−0.34.95.16874Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
103ChileLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−0.412.012.44659Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
104ChadAfricaMixed−0.53.84.3614Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
105United StatesNorth AmericaMixed−1.16.47.68485Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced
106Central African Rep.AfricaMixed−1.33.24.5511Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
107SloveniaEuropeMixed−1.56.07.55163Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
108LithuaniaEuropeMixed−1.66.47.95060Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
109SlovakiaEuropeMixed−1.76.48.14460Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
110IrelandEuropeMixed−1.84.26.06170Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional
111South SudanAfricaMixed−1.92.84.747Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
112GreeceEuropeMixed−2.07.09.04755Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
113RomaniaEuropeMixed−2.16.99.04855Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
114AustraliaIndo-PacificMixed−2.214.817.07772Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
116PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−2.412.615.03850Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
115SerbiaEuropeMixed−2.47.610.04250Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
117LatviaEuropeMixed−2.66.28.84256Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
118ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−2.912.415.34049Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational
119CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−3.020.022.93124Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 · Nascent
120BulgariaEuropeMixed−3.56.610.14249Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
122CroatiaEuropeMixed−4.05.59.44153Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
121LuxembourgEuropeMixed−4.02.86.74266Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
123ThailandIndo-PacificMixed−4.315.119.45261Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional
124IcelandEuropeMixed−5.23.99.24454Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
125MaltaEuropeMixed−5.33.89.13855Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
126CanadaNorth AmericaMixed−5.98.214.27876Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced
127VietnamIndo-PacificMixed−6.016.122.14856Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational
128Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−6.29.115.33449Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
129CambodiaIndo-PacificMixed−6.77.013.81831Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
130CyprusEuropeMixed−6.83.810.63447Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
131Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMixed−7.18.415.51323Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
132MongoliaIndo-PacificMixed−7.26.713.92130Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
134LaosIndo-PacificMixed−7.48.315.81421Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
133North MacedoniaEuropeMixed−7.44.812.12539Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
136North KoreaIndo-PacificMixed−7.69.817.41613Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2 · Inception
135LiechtensteinEuropeMixed−7.61.69.22554Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
137VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.817.125.02217Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
138FijiIndo-PacificMixed−8.25.914.11730Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
139AlbaniaEuropeMixed−8.64.413.02135Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
140SamoaIndo-PacificMixed−8.77.316.01120Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
141MyanmarIndo-PacificMixed−8.87.416.21819Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
143MontenegroEuropeMixed−8.94.213.22434Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
142EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−8.910.319.33036Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
145Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeMixed−9.44.413.82231Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
144PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−9.47.316.83044Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
146Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−10.27.017.32542Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
147TongaIndo-PacificLoser−10.56.116.71017Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
148JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−10.68.719.32436Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
150Timor-LesteIndo-PacificLoser−10.86.016.8816Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
149BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−10.817.428.25860Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 · Transitional
151KosovoEuropeLoser−11.03.914.91726Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
152VanuatuIndo-PacificLoser−11.35.516.8916Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
153BruneiIndo-PacificLoser−11.43.014.41828Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
155San MarinoEuropeLoser−11.61.212.81536Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
154MonacoEuropeLoser−11.61.312.92135Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
157GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−11.97.519.52135Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
156Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−11.96.318.32539Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
158El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−12.17.719.82134Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
160MicronesiaIndo-PacificLoser−12.35.317.6712Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
159Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−12.34.316.6917Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
161KiribatiIndo-PacificLoser−12.55.017.5712Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
162ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−12.631.243.85045Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8.7 · Foundational
163AndorraEuropeLoser−12.71.514.21729Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
164HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−13.77.521.31929Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
165PalauIndo-PacificLoser−14.42.817.1814Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
166Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−14.72.817.5713Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
167BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−15.06.521.51728Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
169TuvaluIndo-PacificLoser−15.22.617.8611Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
168BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−15.25.620.81931Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
171NauruIndo-PacificLoser−15.62.217.8611Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
170NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−15.66.321.91627Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
172Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−16.07.523.51222Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
173GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−16.46.823.31323Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
174GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaLoser−17.25.522.73043Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
175Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−17.85.523.41322Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
176Holy SeeEuropeLoser−18.11.019.154Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 0 · Inception
177BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−18.23.922.11626Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
179UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−18.67.626.22835Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
178BelarusRussia and EurasiaLoser−18.66.024.63439Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
181BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−18.74.523.31323Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
180SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−18.74.323.01423Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
182Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.04.623.51322Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
183Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.43.623.01423Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
184GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.52.722.31626Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
185DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.63.723.31223Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
186RussiaRussia and EurasiaLoser−19.88.027.85854Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 · Transitional
188MoldovaRussia and EurasiaLoser−20.06.026.02635Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
187ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaLoser−20.05.225.22537Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
189UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−20.29.729.93850Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
190HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−21.15.326.4712Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
191AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaLoser−21.45.026.42534Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
192KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−22.85.828.63743Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
193TajikistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−23.67.431.11522Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
194KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−24.35.529.81825Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
195TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−26.65.932.61419Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
196UkraineRussia and EurasiaLoser−36.89.846.54242Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational
197ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−37.77.144.82236Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Agriculture & Food InfrastructureWater, Sanitation & Waste InfrastructureBiotechnology & Health TechnologiesRegulatory Governance & Strategic ControlsGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationTransport InfrastructureTechnology Adoption & Diffusion

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Structural Transformation & ComplexityExport Capability & SophisticationFiscal Capacity & Public Finance
Gain exposure
staple foods among the top five imports (35%); low real gdp per head (ranked) (35%); regional exposure (30%).
Loss exposure
Farm income in grain-exporting nations: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
1 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
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