Scenarios 2027 / Results / S23

Capture test · S23 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Digital public infrastructure leapfrog

D Technology and infrastructure↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers24net position above +10
Mixed130between the two
Losers43net position below -10
Largest net gain+26India

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−20−100+10+20Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +10.3Canada: +10.3North America mean: +10.3Europe 42France: +14.3United Kingdom: +13.0Germany: +10.3Netherlands: +10.4Sweden: +14.2Switzerland: +7.9Norway: +9.7Finland: +15.1Denmark: +9.7Spain: +7.1Italy: +5.1Belgium: +9.3Austria: +5.7Poland: +5.9Ireland: +6.5Portugal: +5.7Czechia: +5.7Estonia: +10.7Luxembourg: +3.5Lithuania: +5.8Greece: +2.5Hungary: +1.7Slovenia: +3.0Romania: +3.8Slovakia: +3.2Latvia: +5.0Iceland: +4.8Croatia: +0.7Serbia: +1.3Bulgaria: +0.1Malta: −1.1Cyprus: −1.0Liechtenstein: −2.8North Macedonia: −2.0Montenegro: −2.3Albania: −2.7Monaco: −6.7Bosnia & Herzegovina: −5.1Andorra: −5.8San Marino: −6.1Kosovo: −5.0Holy See: −14.3Europe mean: +3.5China 1China: −1.2China mean: −1.2Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +20.5South Korea: +19.9Singapore: +12.1Australia: +22.1Taiwan: +22.2New Zealand: +18.8Malaysia: +12.9Thailand: +9.6Indonesia: +13.6Vietnam: +9.4Philippines: +11.2Mongolia: +1.6Brunei: −7.1Fiji: −1.4Cambodia: −4.2North Korea: −11.9Myanmar: −8.5Papua New Guinea: −4.7Laos: −8.5Samoa: −4.7Tonga: −6.0Timor-Leste: −6.1Vanuatu: −6.2Solomon Islands: −6.7Palau: −8.8Marshall Islands: −9.6Micronesia: −9.3Kiribati: −9.6Tuvalu: −9.8Nauru: −11.3Indo-Pacific mean: +1.3TaiwanSouth Asia 8India: +25.6Pakistan: +7.3Sri Lanka: +1.7Bangladesh: −1.2Nepal: −2.9Maldives: −8.4Bhutan: −8.3Afghanistan: −23.9South Asia mean: −1.3IndiaAfghanistanGulf and Middle East 16Israel: +19.1Türkiye: +4.4United Arab Emirates: −2.7Saudi Arabia: −3.3Qatar: −10.9Egypt: −1.5Iran: −5.7Oman: −5.5Kuwait: −8.8Jordan: +0.7Bahrain: −11.4Iraq: −11.9Lebanon: −12.2Palestine: −11.5Syria: −22.6Yemen: −24.2Gulf and Middle East mean: −6.8YemenAfrica 53South Africa: +23.2Morocco: +9.7Mauritius: +6.3Tunisia: +6.9Nigeria: +7.4Kenya: +10.0Ghana: +7.5Algeria: −2.2Senegal: +3.6Botswana: +0.7Namibia: +2.4Rwanda: +5.2Tanzania: +0.6Ethiopia: −1.4Uganda: +0.4Côte d'Ivoire: −2.8Seychelles: −4.3Zambia: −1.5Cabo Verde: −1.3Angola: −8.5Cameroon: −9.6Zimbabwe: −7.0Mozambique: −6.8Benin: −6.0Togo: −8.1Gabon: −13.3Madagascar: −8.1Malawi: −6.7Eswatini: −11.9Sierra Leone: −7.5Mauritania: −12.9Burkina Faso: −11.0Lesotho: −10.5Mali: −13.0Gambia: −9.4Djibouti: −15.3Congo: −14.6Guinea: −13.5Niger: −13.1Libya: −18.3Liberia: −11.3DR Congo: −15.8São Tomé & Príncipe: −12.8Equatorial Guinea: −20.7Sudan: −19.4Burundi: −17.0Comoros: −17.6Chad: −19.5Guinea-Bissau: −18.9Eritrea: −23.6Central African Rep.: −21.3Somalia: −20.9South Sudan: −23.5Africa mean: −7.5South AfricaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +18.4Mexico: +12.5Chile: +12.6Argentina: +8.9Colombia: +7.6Peru: +6.2Uruguay: +7.9Costa Rica: +7.0Panama: +0.5Dominican Republic: +0.6Ecuador: +1.4Trinidad & Tobago: −1.0Jamaica: +2.1Cuba: −7.8Paraguay: −3.3El Salvador: −2.9Guatemala: −2.4Barbados: −3.1Bahamas: −5.2Bolivia: −3.9Honduras: −4.8Venezuela: −7.8Guyana: −9.6Nicaragua: −9.4Antigua & Barbuda: −7.2Grenada: −7.5Suriname: −8.5Belize: −6.3Dominica: −7.4Saint Lucia: −8.9Saint Kitts & Nevis: −9.7Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −8.6Haiti: −16.3Latin America and Caribbean mean: −1.7Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −10.9Ukraine: +2.2Kazakhstan: −10.0Georgia: −5.4Belarus: −19.4Azerbaijan: −17.0Armenia: −9.8Moldova: −9.2Uzbekistan: −16.5Kyrgyzstan: −15.9Tajikistan: −22.3Turkmenistan: −29.2Russia and Eurasia mean: −13.6Turkmenistan
Lowest: Turkmenistan, Yemen, Afghanistan. Highest: Taiwan, South Africa, India.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−20−100+10+20Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 84, net position +10.30France (Europe): readiness 80.2, net position +14.30United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 83.4, net position +13.00Germany (Europe): readiness 80.1, net position +10.30Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 77.8, net position +20.50South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 80.1, net position +19.90China (China): readiness 51.7, net position −1.20Netherlands (Europe): readiness 79, net position +10.40Sweden (Europe): readiness 82, net position +14.20Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 66.5, net position +12.10Canada (North America): readiness 76.5, net position +10.30Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 73.5, net position +22.10Switzerland (Europe): readiness 75.7, net position +7.90Norway (Europe): readiness 70.6, net position +9.70Finland (Europe): readiness 81.1, net position +15.10Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 71.2, net position +19.10Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 75.7, net position +22.20Denmark (Europe): readiness 69.3, net position +9.70Spain (Europe): readiness 65.3, net position +7.10Italy (Europe): readiness 65.5, net position +5.10Belgium (Europe): readiness 68.4, net position +9.30New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 58.5, net position +18.80Austria (Europe): readiness 61.8, net position +5.70India (South Asia): readiness 58.2, net position +25.60Poland (Europe): readiness 59.9, net position +5.90Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 41.7, net position −10.90Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 51, net position +4.40Ireland (Europe): readiness 59.9, net position +6.50United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.8, net position −2.70Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 54.1, net position +18.40Portugal (Europe): readiness 55.5, net position +5.70Czechia (Europe): readiness 54.4, net position +5.70Estonia (Europe): readiness 64, net position +10.70Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 51.2, net position +12.90Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 42.1, net position −3.30Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.3, net position +12.50Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 51.3, net position +3.50South Africa (Africa): readiness 47.5, net position +23.20Lithuania (Europe): readiness 53.1, net position +5.80Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 43.7, net position +9.60Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 42.5, net position +12.60Greece (Europe): readiness 46.7, net position +2.50Hungary (Europe): readiness 47.4, net position +1.70Slovenia (Europe): readiness 46.8, net position +3.00Romania (Europe): readiness 48.9, net position +3.80Slovakia (Europe): readiness 44.2, net position +3.20Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 41.8, net position +13.60Latvia (Europe): readiness 48.1, net position +5.00Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 38.8, net position +9.40Iceland (Europe): readiness 42.3, net position +4.80Croatia (Europe): readiness 40.3, net position +0.70Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 47.7, net position +2.20Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 32.9, net position −10.90Morocco (Africa): readiness 34.4, net position +9.70Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.7, net position +8.90Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.1, net position +7.60Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 34.3, net position −1.50Serbia (Europe): readiness 38.7, net position +1.30Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 38.2, net position +0.10Malta (Europe): readiness 38.6, net position −1.10Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 34.6, net position +11.20Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.3, net position +6.20Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.4, net position +7.90Cyprus (Europe): readiness 34.8, net position −1.00Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 30.9, net position −5.70Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.9, net position −10.00Mauritius (Africa): readiness 34, net position +6.30Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 29.7, net position −5.50Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 34, net position +7.30Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.5, net position +7.00Tunisia (Africa): readiness 32.5, net position +6.90Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31.1, net position −5.40Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 27.7, net position −8.80Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 30.5, net position +0.70Nigeria (Africa): readiness 29, net position +7.40Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.5, net position −11.40Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 29.1, net position +1.70Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 30.6, net position −2.80Kenya (Africa): readiness 31.5, net position +10.00Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.4, net position +0.50Ghana (Africa): readiness 27.8, net position +7.50Algeria (Africa): readiness 23.6, net position −2.20Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27, net position −19.40Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.6, net position +0.60Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.6, net position −17.00Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.2, net position +1.40Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 25.2, net position −1.20Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.9, net position −1.00Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 28.7, net position −9.80North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 27.1, net position −2.00Senegal (Africa): readiness 23.1, net position +3.60Montenegro (Europe): readiness 26.3, net position −2.30Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 28.7, net position −9.20Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.9, net position +2.10Albania (Europe): readiness 23.4, net position −2.70Botswana (Africa): readiness 22.7, net position +0.70Namibia (Africa): readiness 22.5, net position +2.40Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.4, net position −7.80Rwanda (Africa): readiness 25, net position +5.20Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 20.5, net position −16.50Monaco (Europe): readiness 24.2, net position −6.70Tanzania (Africa): readiness 21.1, net position +0.60Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 23.3, net position −5.10Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.2, net position −3.30Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 23.4, net position +1.60Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 21.1, net position −1.40El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.7, net position −2.90Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.9, net position −2.40Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 20.6, net position −7.10Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.9, net position −3.10Uganda (Africa): readiness 20.9, net position +0.40Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 20.3, net position −2.80Seychelles (Africa): readiness 19.8, net position −4.30Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.7, net position −5.20Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.6, net position −1.40Andorra (Europe): readiness 22.5, net position −5.80Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.2, net position −3.90Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.6, net position −4.80San Marino (Europe): readiness 21.5, net position −6.10Nepal (South Asia): readiness 20.6, net position −2.90Zambia (Africa): readiness 18.9, net position −1.50Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.9, net position −4.20Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 18.4, net position −15.90Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 19.5, net position −1.30Kosovo (Europe): readiness 19.1, net position −5.00Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 17.3, net position −11.90Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 20.1, net position −12.20Maldives (South Asia): readiness 18.9, net position −8.40Angola (Africa): readiness 15.6, net position −8.50Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.5, net position −7.80Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.4, net position −9.60Cameroon (Africa): readiness 14.8, net position −9.60Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15, net position −9.40Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17, net position −7.20Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 16.6, net position −7.00North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.5, net position −11.90Mozambique (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position −6.80Benin (Africa): readiness 15.4, net position −6.00Togo (Africa): readiness 14.9, net position −8.10Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.3, net position −7.50Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.7, net position −8.50Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.6, net position −6.30Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 12.8, net position −22.30Gabon (Africa): readiness 13.9, net position −13.30Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 16.4, net position −8.30Madagascar (Africa): readiness 14.1, net position −8.10Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.4, net position −8.50Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.6, net position −7.40Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.9, net position −8.90Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.6, net position −9.70Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.4, net position −4.70Malawi (Africa): readiness 13.9, net position −6.70Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.5, net position −8.60Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 15.8, net position −11.50Eswatini (Africa): readiness 13.9, net position −11.90Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12, net position −8.50Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 13.3, net position −7.50Mauritania (Africa): readiness 11.4, net position −12.90Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 11, net position −29.20Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.1, net position −4.70Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position −11.00Lesotho (Africa): readiness 12.5, net position −10.50Mali (Africa): readiness 10.6, net position −13.00Gambia (Africa): readiness 12.7, net position −9.40Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.1, net position −6.00Djibouti (Africa): readiness 11.4, net position −15.30Congo (Africa): readiness 11.6, net position −14.60Guinea (Africa): readiness 11.5, net position −13.50Niger (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position −13.10Libya (Africa): readiness 9.8, net position −18.30Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.9, net position −6.10Liberia (Africa): readiness 11.4, net position −11.30Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.1, net position −6.20Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.4, net position −6.70DR Congo (Africa): readiness 9.6, net position −15.80São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 10.3, net position −12.80Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.4, net position −8.80Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 7.9, net position −20.70Sudan (Africa): readiness 7.8, net position −19.40Burundi (Africa): readiness 7.9, net position −17.00Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.6, net position −9.60Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.5, net position −9.30Comoros (Africa): readiness 7.7, net position −17.60Chad (Africa): readiness 6.4, net position −19.50Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 7.4, net position −22.60Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.5, net position −9.60Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.3, net position −9.80Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 7.1, net position −18.90Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.4, net position −16.30Eritrea (Africa): readiness 4.7, net position −23.60Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.7, net position −11.30Holy See (Europe): readiness 6.5, net position −14.30Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 5.3, net position −21.30Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5, net position −24.20Somalia (Africa): readiness 6.4, net position −20.90Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 4, net position −23.90South Sudan (Africa): readiness 4.1, net position −23.50TaiwanIndiaSouth AfricaTurkmenistanYemenAfghanistan
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: exclusion, outage and surveillance where safeguards are weak; incumbents that lose margin.

Russia and Eurasia 12−13.6
Africa 53−7.5
Gulf and Middle East 16−6.8
Latin America and Caribbean 33−1.7
South Asia 8−1.3
China 1−1.2
Indo-Pacific 30+1.3
Europe 42+3.5
North America 2+10.3

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+25.639.613.95854Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10.7 · Transitional
2South AfricaAfricaGainer+23.235.512.34859Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.6 · Foundational
3TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+22.227.45.27674Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.8 · Established
4AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+22.125.73.67482Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 · Established
5JapanIndo-PacificGainer+20.525.24.67877Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 14.7 · Established
6South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+19.924.54.68077Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 15.3 · Advanced
7IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+19.128.29.17170Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 13.3 · Established
8New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+18.822.23.45983Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
9BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+18.428.39.95461Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
10FinlandEuropeGainer+15.117.52.48188Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 15.6 · Advanced
11FranceEuropeGainer+14.318.34.08080Digital & AI Competence 15.5 · Advanced
12SwedenEuropeGainer+14.217.12.98286Financial Infrastructure 16 · Advanced
13IndonesiaIndo-PacificGainer+13.623.19.64252Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
14United KingdomEuropeGainer+13.016.83.98381Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 16.3 · Advanced
15MalaysiaIndo-PacificGainer+12.922.49.55153Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
16ChileLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+12.620.27.64369Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
17MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+12.524.311.84553Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7 · Foundational
18SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+12.117.95.76771Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10.3 · Transitional
19PhilippinesIndo-PacificGainer+11.221.610.43548Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
20EstoniaEuropeGainer+10.715.44.76477Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.8 · Transitional
21NetherlandsEuropeGainer+10.413.83.47983Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 15 · Advanced
24CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+10.315.85.57782Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.4 · Established
23GermanyEuropeGainer+10.314.03.88081Digital & AI Competence 15.5 · Advanced
22United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+10.316.76.48479Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced
25KenyaAfricaMixed+10.027.017.03243Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4 · Nascent
28MoroccoAfricaMixed+9.726.717.03443Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
27DenmarkEuropeMixed+9.712.73.06985Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.8 · Transitional
26NorwayEuropeMixed+9.712.52.87186Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.2 · Established
29ThailandIndo-PacificMixed+9.619.39.74452Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
30VietnamIndo-PacificMixed+9.421.412.03940Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
31BelgiumEuropeMixed+9.314.45.16875Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.6 · Established
32ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.920.511.74053Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
34UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.916.58.63566Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
33SwitzerlandEuropeMixed+7.912.34.47678Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.2 · Established
35ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.619.211.63554Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
36GhanaAfricaMixed+7.523.515.92847Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 · Nascent
37NigeriaAfricaMixed+7.425.518.12940Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
38PakistanSouth AsiaMixed+7.326.319.03437Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
39SpainEuropeMixed+7.112.95.86571Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.8 · Transitional
40Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.016.29.13463Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
41TunisiaAfricaMixed+6.923.816.93344Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
42IrelandEuropeMixed+6.511.55.06075Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.6 · Transitional
43MauritiusAfricaMixed+6.319.112.83457Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
44PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.218.812.73149Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
45PolandEuropeMixed+5.913.27.36064Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.8 · Transitional
46LithuaniaEuropeMixed+5.812.06.35369Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
49CzechiaEuropeMixed+5.712.56.85466Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9 · Transitional
48PortugalEuropeMixed+5.711.96.25669Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9 · Transitional
47AustriaEuropeMixed+5.710.75.06275Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
50RwandaAfricaMixed+5.222.717.52542Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
51ItalyEuropeMixed+5.112.06.96665Digital & AI Competence 12.5 · Established
52LatviaEuropeMixed+5.011.76.74867Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7 · Foundational
53IcelandEuropeMixed+4.89.64.84276Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
54TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastMixed+4.419.915.55148Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8.7 · Foundational
55RomaniaEuropeMixed+3.812.28.44958Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.2 · Foundational
56SenegalAfricaMixed+3.620.717.22343Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
57LuxembourgEuropeMixed+3.59.15.55172Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
58SlovakiaEuropeMixed+3.211.07.84461Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.2 · Foundational
59SloveniaEuropeMixed+3.09.66.64767Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
60GreeceEuropeMixed+2.510.98.44758Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
61NamibiaAfricaMixed+2.418.015.62348Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
62UkraineRussia and EurasiaMixed+2.219.417.34857Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
63JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.115.713.52546Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception
65Sri LankaSouth AsiaMixed+1.718.416.72945Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
64HungaryEuropeMixed+1.711.29.54752Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.6 · Foundational
66MongoliaIndo-PacificMixed+1.612.711.12344Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
67EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.415.614.12543Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception
68SerbiaEuropeMixed+1.310.99.53952Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.4 · Nascent
71BotswanaAfricaMixed+0.716.215.52348Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
70JordanGulf and Middle EastMixed+0.718.417.73141Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
69CroatiaEuropeMixed+0.78.88.14060Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
73TanzaniaAfricaMixed+0.619.418.82137Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception
72Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.614.413.82745Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
74PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.513.513.02748Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception
75UgandaAfricaMixed+0.419.919.52135Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
76BulgariaEuropeMixed+0.19.59.43853Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
78Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−1.012.113.12648Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
77CyprusEuropeMixed−1.07.58.53558Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
79MaltaEuropeMixed−1.17.38.33958Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
81BangladeshSouth AsiaMixed−1.217.518.72538Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.8 · Inception
80ChinaChinaMixed−1.214.315.55248Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.3 · Foundational
82Cabo VerdeAfricaMixed−1.315.016.32046Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
84FijiIndo-PacificMixed−1.410.511.91941Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
83EthiopiaAfricaMixed−1.419.620.92130Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
86ZambiaAfricaMixed−1.517.418.91937Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
85EgyptGulf and Middle EastMixed−1.518.620.13433Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
87North MacedoniaEuropeMixed−2.08.310.32749Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception
88AlgeriaAfricaMixed−2.217.820.02433Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception
89MontenegroEuropeMixed−2.38.110.42648Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception
90GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−2.413.716.12135Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
92AlbaniaEuropeMixed−2.78.311.02345Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
91United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastMixed−2.713.215.94847Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.7 · Foundational
94Côte d'IvoireAfricaMixed−2.817.220.02033Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception
93LiechtensteinEuropeMixed−2.84.87.63162Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception
96NepalSouth AsiaMixed−2.915.218.12140Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
95El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−2.913.616.62234Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
97BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−3.110.413.42146Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
99ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−3.311.915.22139Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
98Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastMixed−3.314.117.34242Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
100BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−3.912.116.01836Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
101CambodiaIndo-PacificMixed−4.211.015.11724Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
102SeychellesAfricaMixed−4.311.615.92047Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
104SamoaIndo-PacificMixed−4.78.413.11334Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
103Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMixed−4.79.714.31328Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
105HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−4.812.317.11832Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
106KosovoEuropeMixed−5.07.812.81936Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
107Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeMixed−5.16.911.92340Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception
108BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−5.29.114.32043Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
109GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMixed−5.413.118.43154Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
110OmanGulf and Middle EastMixed−5.513.018.53038Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 · Nascent
111IranGulf and Middle EastMixed−5.715.421.13130Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
112AndorraEuropeMixed−5.83.59.32353Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
114TongaIndo-PacificMixed−6.07.813.81231Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
113BeninAfricaMixed−6.014.220.21533Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
116Timor-LesteIndo-PacificMixed−6.18.014.01130Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
115San MarinoEuropeMixed−6.13.59.52252Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
117VanuatuIndo-PacificMixed−6.28.014.31129Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
118BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−6.39.816.11636Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
121Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificMixed−6.77.814.51028Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
120MalawiAfricaMixed−6.713.119.91434Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
119MonacoEuropeMixed−6.72.99.62452Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
122MozambiqueAfricaMixed−6.814.321.21530Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
123ZimbabweAfricaMixed−7.015.122.11726Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
124BruneiIndo-PacificMixed−7.16.914.02130Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
125Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.28.315.51738Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
126DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.48.315.71637Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
128Sierra LeoneAfricaMixed−7.512.319.81334Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
127GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.58.415.91536Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
130VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.812.920.71917Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
129CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.89.817.52030Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
132MadagascarAfricaMixed−8.113.321.41429Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
131TogoAfricaMixed−8.113.922.01527Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
133BhutanSouth AsiaMixed−8.310.218.51638Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
134MaldivesSouth AsiaMixed−8.410.619.11936Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
138LaosIndo-PacificMixed−8.57.716.21219Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
137MyanmarIndo-PacificMixed−8.58.717.11315Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
136SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−8.57.916.41534Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
135AngolaAfricaMixed−8.513.522.01627Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
139Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−8.67.616.31535Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
141PalauIndo-PacificMixed−8.85.214.11030Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
140KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMixed−8.810.319.12837Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
142Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−8.97.216.11536Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
143MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMixed−9.212.121.32947Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
144MicronesiaIndo-PacificMixed−9.35.915.2924Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
146GambiaAfricaMixed−9.411.721.11330Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
145NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−9.49.919.31523Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
150KiribatiIndo-PacificMixed−9.65.915.6922Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
149Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificMixed−9.65.615.2924Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
148CameroonAfricaMixed−9.613.322.81524Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
147GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−9.66.616.21635Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
151Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−9.76.916.61533Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
153TuvaluIndo-PacificMixed−9.85.515.3824Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
152ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaMixed−9.812.121.92945Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
154KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMixed−10.014.224.23339Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
155LesothoAfricaLoser−10.511.421.91327Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
157QatarGulf and Middle EastLoser−10.97.318.13340Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
156RussiaRussia and EurasiaLoser−10.914.024.94238Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
158Burkina FasoAfricaLoser−11.011.722.61225Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
160NauruIndo-PacificLoser−11.34.716.0820Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
159LiberiaAfricaLoser−11.310.922.11126Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
161BahrainGulf and Middle EastLoser−11.48.820.32933Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
162PalestineGulf and Middle EastLoser−11.511.122.61625Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
165EswatiniAfricaLoser−11.911.022.91424Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
164North KoreaIndo-PacificLoser−11.96.017.9911Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception
163IraqGulf and Middle EastLoser−11.910.222.11727Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception
166LebanonGulf and Middle EastLoser−12.210.222.42025Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
167São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaLoser−12.88.921.71028Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
168MauritaniaAfricaLoser−12.99.622.61125Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
169MaliAfricaLoser−13.010.123.11123Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
170NigerAfricaLoser−13.110.123.11023Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
171GabonAfricaLoser−13.310.123.41422Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
172GuineaAfricaLoser−13.510.423.91220Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
173Holy SeeEuropeLoser−14.32.016.2719Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
174CongoAfricaLoser−14.610.024.51218Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
175DjiboutiAfricaLoser−15.39.224.51118Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
176DR CongoAfricaLoser−15.89.425.21016Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
177KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−15.911.227.11832Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
178HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−16.35.722.0712Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
179UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−16.511.828.32129Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception
181BurundiAfricaLoser−17.07.724.7818Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
180AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaLoser−17.010.927.82530Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
182ComorosAfricaLoser−17.66.824.4819Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
183LibyaAfricaLoser−18.37.726.01013Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
184Guinea-BissauAfricaLoser−18.96.825.7714Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
186SudanAfricaLoser−19.47.426.8811Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
185BelarusRussia and EurasiaLoser−19.410.029.42727Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 · Nascent
187ChadAfricaLoser−19.56.125.7614Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
188Equatorial GuineaAfricaLoser−20.76.126.8811Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
189SomaliaAfricaLoser−20.96.227.1610Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
190Central African Rep.AfricaLoser−21.35.126.4512Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
191TajikistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−22.38.630.91323Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
192SyriaGulf and Middle EastLoser−22.64.927.678Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
193South SudanAfricaLoser−23.54.127.648Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
194EritreaAfricaLoser−23.64.528.157Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception
195AfghanistanSouth AsiaLoser−23.93.527.349Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
196YemenGulf and Middle EastLoser−24.23.727.957Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
197TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−29.25.434.61114Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Communications & Digital InfrastructureFinancial InfrastructureGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationRegulatory Governance & Strategic ControlsDigital & AI CompetenceConnectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesTransparency, Oversight & Accountability

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Justice System & Fundamental RightsTransparency, Oversight & AccountabilityNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementPublic Integrity & Anti-Corruption
Gain exposure
regional exposure (40%); low real gdp per head (ranked) (40%); share of population aged under 15 (ranked) (20%).
Loss exposure
Exclusion, outage and surveillance where safeguards are weak; incumbents that lose margin: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
22 per cent over three years and 40 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results