Scenarios 2027 / Results / S24

Capture test · S24 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Hundred-day pandemic defence

E Health↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers87net position above +10
Mixed102between the two
Losers8net position below -10
Largest net gain+67Singapore

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

0+20+40+60Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +49.3Canada: +52.7North America mean: +51.0Europe 42France: +61.2United Kingdom: +58.5Germany: +61.3Netherlands: +64.9Sweden: +62.4Switzerland: +57.4Norway: +50.9Finland: +55.5Denmark: +57.5Spain: +51.2Italy: +47.4Belgium: +56.0Austria: +45.2Poland: +41.7Ireland: +46.4Portugal: +40.8Czechia: +43.1Estonia: +40.4Luxembourg: +36.1Lithuania: +38.5Greece: +34.6Hungary: +41.0Slovenia: +37.2Romania: +30.0Slovakia: +30.5Latvia: +30.8Iceland: +34.4Croatia: +28.1Serbia: +28.4Bulgaria: +29.5Malta: +31.9Cyprus: +24.2Liechtenstein: +11.9North Macedonia: +15.6Montenegro: +15.8Albania: +10.8Monaco: +20.5Bosnia & Herzegovina: +12.0Andorra: +14.1San Marino: +13.9Kosovo: +8.5Holy See: +3.9Europe mean: +36.3NetherlandsSwedenChina 1China: +34.8China mean: +34.8Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +60.1South Korea: +61.0Singapore: +66.5Australia: +51.7Taiwan: +55.4New Zealand: +41.9Malaysia: +37.8Thailand: +34.1Indonesia: +22.7Vietnam: +27.7Philippines: +16.6Mongolia: +12.5Brunei: +11.9Fiji: +8.4Cambodia: +5.8North Korea: +10.9Myanmar: +3.6Papua New Guinea: +0.7Laos: +3.8Samoa: +2.1Tonga: +2.5Timor-Leste: +0.4Vanuatu: +0.5Solomon Islands: +0.9Palau: +3.3Marshall Islands: +2.1Micronesia: +0.3Kiribati: +0.9Tuvalu: +1.4Nauru: +1.5Indo-Pacific mean: +18.3SingaporeSouth Asia 8India: +19.4Pakistan: +7.7Sri Lanka: +8.5Bangladesh: +9.3Nepal: +1.6Maldives: +5.2Bhutan: +0.8Afghanistan: −6.5South Asia mean: +5.7Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +43.7Türkiye: +30.2United Arab Emirates: +29.4Saudi Arabia: +23.6Qatar: +19.5Egypt: +12.7Iran: +21.6Oman: +13.8Kuwait: +13.3Jordan: +15.1Bahrain: +12.4Iraq: +2.8Lebanon: +11.9Palestine: +1.6Syria: −4.7Yemen: −6.8Gulf and Middle East mean: +15.0Africa 53South Africa: +24.2Morocco: +18.5Mauritius: +13.4Tunisia: +16.8Nigeria: +5.2Kenya: +3.1Ghana: +7.8Algeria: +9.1Senegal: +5.2Botswana: +4.3Namibia: +3.2Rwanda: +2.9Tanzania: −0.4Ethiopia: −1.6Uganda: −1.1Côte d'Ivoire: −1.7Seychelles: +4.9Zambia: −1.1Cabo Verde: +0.7Angola: −3.7Cameroon: −3.5Zimbabwe: −3.1Mozambique: −3.0Benin: −4.8Togo: −5.1Gabon: −0.9Madagascar: −4.0Malawi: −4.8Eswatini: −5.2Sierra Leone: −6.1Mauritania: −4.6Burkina Faso: −5.8Lesotho: −5.0Mali: −5.9Gambia: −3.3Djibouti: −5.4Congo: −5.7Guinea: −6.2Niger: −8.5Libya: −2.5Liberia: −6.6DR Congo: −6.4São Tomé & Príncipe: −6.6Equatorial Guinea: −7.2Sudan: −8.7Burundi: −9.1Comoros: −9.2Chad: −10.6Guinea-Bissau: −10.2Eritrea: −9.0Central African Rep.: −11.1Somalia: −11.2South Sudan: −11.3Africa mean: −1.9South SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +32.1Mexico: +29.4Chile: +26.4Argentina: +24.8Colombia: +19.0Peru: +15.9Uruguay: +21.4Costa Rica: +18.3Panama: +12.5Dominican Republic: +8.6Ecuador: +10.8Trinidad & Tobago: +9.0Jamaica: +8.8Cuba: +21.9Paraguay: +6.5El Salvador: +7.8Guatemala: +3.1Barbados: +4.3Bahamas: +4.7Bolivia: +3.3Honduras: +3.0Venezuela: +7.6Guyana: +1.1Nicaragua: +3.1Antigua & Barbuda: +1.3Grenada: +1.7Suriname: +1.9Belize: 0.0Dominica: +2.0Saint Lucia: +0.6Saint Kitts & Nevis: +0.6Saint Vincent & Grenadines: +1.0Haiti: −5.7Latin America and Caribbean mean: +9.3Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: +22.9Ukraine: +15.7Kazakhstan: +4.8Georgia: +4.5Belarus: +9.8Azerbaijan: −2.3Armenia: +1.2Moldova: −0.8Uzbekistan: −6.0Kyrgyzstan: −10.8Tajikistan: −15.8Turkmenistan: −17.3Russia and Eurasia mean: +0.5TajikistanTurkmenistan
Lowest: Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, South Sudan. Highest: Sweden, Netherlands, Singapore.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

0204060800+20+40+60Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 78, net position +49.30France (Europe): readiness 83, net position +61.20United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 82.7, net position +58.50Germany (Europe): readiness 81.4, net position +61.30Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 81.5, net position +60.10South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 79.9, net position +61.00China (China): readiness 67, net position +34.80Netherlands (Europe): readiness 75.2, net position +64.90Sweden (Europe): readiness 76.3, net position +62.40Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 76.9, net position +66.50Canada (North America): readiness 74.3, net position +52.70Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 76.3, net position +51.70Switzerland (Europe): readiness 73, net position +57.40Norway (Europe): readiness 69, net position +50.90Finland (Europe): readiness 71.3, net position +55.50Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 72.4, net position +43.70Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 70.4, net position +55.40Denmark (Europe): readiness 69.6, net position +57.50Spain (Europe): readiness 70.8, net position +51.20Italy (Europe): readiness 67.8, net position +47.40Belgium (Europe): readiness 64.6, net position +56.00New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 61.9, net position +41.90Austria (Europe): readiness 62.1, net position +45.20India (South Asia): readiness 50.1, net position +19.40Poland (Europe): readiness 59.7, net position +41.70Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 56.4, net position +22.90Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 57.3, net position +30.20Ireland (Europe): readiness 61.7, net position +46.40United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 51.2, net position +29.40Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 58.8, net position +32.10Portugal (Europe): readiness 56.3, net position +40.80Czechia (Europe): readiness 56, net position +43.10Estonia (Europe): readiness 51.1, net position +40.40Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.6, net position +37.80Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 49.7, net position +23.60Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 52.4, net position +29.40Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 43.6, net position +36.10South Africa (Africa): readiness 50.7, net position +24.20Lithuania (Europe): readiness 49.9, net position +38.50Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 50.6, net position +34.10Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 44.8, net position +26.40Greece (Europe): readiness 46.1, net position +34.60Hungary (Europe): readiness 52.6, net position +41.00Slovenia (Europe): readiness 49.8, net position +37.20Romania (Europe): readiness 47.4, net position +30.00Slovakia (Europe): readiness 43.6, net position +30.50Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.4, net position +22.70Latvia (Europe): readiness 41.2, net position +30.80Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.2, net position +27.70Iceland (Europe): readiness 46.3, net position +34.40Croatia (Europe): readiness 40.2, net position +28.10Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 43.5, net position +15.70Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 38.6, net position +19.50Morocco (Africa): readiness 39.3, net position +18.50Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 47, net position +24.80Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.8, net position +19.00Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 44, net position +12.70Serbia (Europe): readiness 42.5, net position +28.40Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 40, net position +29.50Malta (Europe): readiness 37.5, net position +31.90Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 37.2, net position +16.60Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.6, net position +15.90Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 37.5, net position +21.40Cyprus (Europe): readiness 34.5, net position +24.20Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 48.7, net position +21.60Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 37.2, net position +4.80Mauritius (Africa): readiness 32.7, net position +13.40Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 29.3, net position +13.80Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 32.1, net position +7.70Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 34.7, net position +18.30Tunisia (Africa): readiness 37.5, net position +16.80Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.6, net position +4.50Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.7, net position +13.30Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 32, net position +15.10Nigeria (Africa): readiness 28.4, net position +5.20Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 25.7, net position +12.40Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 31.4, net position +8.50Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 25.3, net position +11.90Kenya (Africa): readiness 32, net position +3.10Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.4, net position +12.50Ghana (Africa): readiness 30.6, net position +7.80Algeria (Africa): readiness 30.5, net position +9.10Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.4, net position +9.80Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.8, net position +8.60Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.8, net position −2.30Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.9, net position +10.80Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 32.8, net position +9.30Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.5, net position +9.00Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25.9, net position +1.20North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 25, net position +15.60Senegal (Africa): readiness 28.7, net position +5.20Montenegro (Europe): readiness 24.5, net position +15.80Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.2, net position −0.80Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.3, net position +8.80Albania (Europe): readiness 20.4, net position +10.80Botswana (Africa): readiness 21.4, net position +4.30Namibia (Africa): readiness 21, net position +3.20Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 44.2, net position +21.90Rwanda (Africa): readiness 29.3, net position +2.90Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 26.5, net position −6.00Monaco (Europe): readiness 24.9, net position +20.50Tanzania (Africa): readiness 23.9, net position −0.40Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 21.8, net position +12.00Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.8, net position +6.50Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.6, net position +12.50Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 24.3, net position −1.60El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.5, net position +7.80Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.5, net position +3.10Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 19.9, net position +11.90Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.5, net position +4.30Uganda (Africa): readiness 25.1, net position −1.10Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 18.9, net position −1.70Seychelles (Africa): readiness 19, net position +4.90Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16, net position +4.70Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.6, net position +8.40Andorra (Europe): readiness 19.8, net position +14.10Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.6, net position +3.30Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.1, net position +3.00San Marino (Europe): readiness 18.3, net position +13.90Nepal (South Asia): readiness 19.4, net position +1.60Zambia (Africa): readiness 19.1, net position −1.10Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.6, net position +5.80Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 18.4, net position −10.80Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 15.6, net position +0.70Kosovo (Europe): readiness 17, net position +8.50Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.3, net position +2.80Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.5, net position +11.90Maldives (South Asia): readiness 18.3, net position +5.20Angola (Africa): readiness 13.8, net position −3.70Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.9, net position +7.60Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.2, net position +1.10Cameroon (Africa): readiness 16.8, net position −3.50Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.7, net position +3.10Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.2, net position +1.30Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 19.3, net position −3.10North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 20.5, net position +10.90Mozambique (Africa): readiness 16.9, net position −3.00Benin (Africa): readiness 13.6, net position −4.80Togo (Africa): readiness 13.4, net position −5.10Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14, net position +1.70Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.7, net position +1.90Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.8, net position 0.00Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 15.3, net position −15.80Gabon (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position −0.90Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 13.5, net position +0.80Madagascar (Africa): readiness 15.9, net position −4.00Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.4, net position +3.60Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.3, net position +2.00Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.4, net position +0.60Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13, net position +0.60Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.9, net position +0.70Malawi (Africa): readiness 16.9, net position −4.80Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13, net position +1.00Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 16.2, net position +1.60Eswatini (Africa): readiness 12.8, net position −5.20Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.2, net position +3.80Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 12.9, net position −6.10Mauritania (Africa): readiness 12.3, net position −4.60Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 12, net position −17.30Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.5, net position +2.10Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 13.8, net position −5.80Lesotho (Africa): readiness 11.6, net position −5.00Mali (Africa): readiness 13.3, net position −5.90Gambia (Africa): readiness 13.9, net position −3.30Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.4, net position +2.50Djibouti (Africa): readiness 8.9, net position −5.40Congo (Africa): readiness 10.6, net position −5.70Guinea (Africa): readiness 11.6, net position −6.20Niger (Africa): readiness 11.5, net position −8.50Libya (Africa): readiness 12.9, net position −2.50Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.9, net position +0.40Liberia (Africa): readiness 10.5, net position −6.60Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.9, net position +0.50Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.7, net position +0.90DR Congo (Africa): readiness 11.7, net position −6.40São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 9.7, net position −6.60Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.8, net position +3.30Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 8.3, net position −7.20Sudan (Africa): readiness 10.1, net position −8.70Burundi (Africa): readiness 7.6, net position −9.10Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.4, net position +2.10Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.2, net position +0.30Comoros (Africa): readiness 7.5, net position −9.20Chad (Africa): readiness 6.2, net position −10.60Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.7, net position −4.70Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.9, net position +0.90Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8, net position +1.40Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 6.4, net position −10.20Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7, net position −5.70Eritrea (Africa): readiness 8.1, net position −9.00Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.2, net position +1.50Holy See (Europe): readiness 8.3, net position +3.90Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 5, net position −11.10Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5.3, net position −6.80Somalia (Africa): readiness 4.3, net position −11.20Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 5.5, net position −6.50South Sudan (Africa): readiness 4.2, net position −11.30NetherlandsSwedenSingaporeTajikistanTurkmenistanSouth Sudan
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: standing outside the surveillance and manufacturing network.

Africa 53−1.9
Russia and Eurasia 12+0.5
South Asia 8+5.8
Latin America and Caribbean 33+9.3
Gulf and Middle East 16+15.0
Indo-Pacific 30+18.3
China 1+34.8
Europe 42+36.3
North America 2+51.0

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+66.567.30.87783Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · Established
2NetherlandsEuropeGainer+64.965.91.07579Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established
3SwedenEuropeGainer+62.463.31.07681Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · Established
4GermanyEuropeGainer+61.362.10.88184Population Health 15.7 · Advanced
5FranceEuropeGainer+61.262.00.88385Population Health 16.3 · Advanced
6South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+61.061.80.98083Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 · Advanced
7JapanIndo-PacificGainer+60.161.00.88284Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 · Advanced
8United KingdomEuropeGainer+58.559.30.78386Population Health 16 · Advanced
9DenmarkEuropeGainer+57.558.61.17078Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · Established
10SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+57.458.51.17377Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established
11BelgiumEuropeGainer+56.057.41.46571Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11 · Transitional
12FinlandEuropeGainer+55.556.61.07179Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established
13TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+55.456.61.27077Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established
14CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+52.754.92.27478Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established
15AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+51.752.71.07681Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · Established
16SpainEuropeGainer+51.252.51.37175Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established
17NorwayEuropeGainer+50.952.01.06979Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
18United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+49.351.01.67884Population Health 14 · Established
19ItalyEuropeGainer+47.449.01.56870Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 · Established
20IrelandEuropeGainer+46.448.01.66269Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional
21AustriaEuropeGainer+45.246.71.56271Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 · Transitional
22IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+43.746.32.67274Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established
23CzechiaEuropeGainer+43.144.91.85665Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
24New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+41.943.11.36275Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
25PolandEuropeGainer+41.743.41.76066Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional
26HungaryEuropeGainer+41.043.02.05359Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 · Transitional
27PortugalEuropeGainer+40.842.41.65668Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional
28EstoniaEuropeGainer+40.441.81.45172Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
29LithuaniaEuropeGainer+38.540.31.85064Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
30MalaysiaIndo-PacificGainer+37.839.71.95361Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
31SloveniaEuropeGainer+37.239.22.05060Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 · Foundational
32LuxembourgEuropeGainer+36.137.71.74467Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
33ChinaChinaGainer+34.839.64.86776Population Health 11.7 · Transitional
34GreeceEuropeGainer+34.636.82.24656Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
35IcelandEuropeGainer+34.436.21.84664Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
36ThailandIndo-PacificGainer+34.136.22.15159Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional
37BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+32.135.83.75963Population Health 11.3 · Transitional
38MaltaEuropeGainer+31.934.12.13858Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
39LatviaEuropeGainer+30.832.82.04160Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
40SlovakiaEuropeGainer+30.532.72.14457Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
41TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+30.233.53.35767Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
42RomaniaEuropeGainer+30.032.22.24755Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
43BulgariaEuropeGainer+29.532.02.54050Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
45MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+29.433.64.25258Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
44United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+29.432.63.15169Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
46SerbiaEuropeGainer+28.430.72.34354Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
47CroatiaEuropeGainer+28.130.32.24056Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
48VietnamIndo-PacificGainer+27.730.02.34654Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational
49ChileLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+26.430.54.14559Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
50ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+24.829.54.74753Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 · Foundational
52CyprusEuropeGainer+24.226.62.33553Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
51South AfricaAfricaGainer+24.230.86.75156Population Health 9.3 · Transitional
53Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastGainer+23.627.03.45066Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
54RussiaRussia and EurasiaGainer+22.932.910.05667Population Health 10 · Transitional
55IndonesiaIndo-PacificGainer+22.725.12.34653Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
56CubaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+21.926.54.64454Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 7.3 · Foundational
57IranGulf and Middle EastGainer+21.626.44.74953Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
58UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+21.426.04.63854Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
59MonacoEuropeGainer+20.523.02.62549Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
60QatarGulf and Middle EastGainer+19.523.03.53965Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
61IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+19.423.34.05060Population Health 8.3 · Foundational
62ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+19.023.84.74053Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational
63MoroccoAfricaGainer+18.525.87.33951Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
64Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+18.323.04.73553Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
65TunisiaAfricaGainer+16.824.88.03847Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
66PhilippinesIndo-PacificGainer+16.619.12.53749Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
67PeruLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+15.921.15.23648Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
68MontenegroEuropeGainer+15.818.62.82545Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
69UkraineRussia and EurasiaGainer+15.728.112.44459Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational
70North MacedoniaEuropeGainer+15.618.42.82543Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
71JordanGulf and Middle EastGainer+15.120.45.33248Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
72AndorraEuropeGainer+14.116.92.72045Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
73San MarinoEuropeGainer+13.916.82.81843Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
74OmanGulf and Middle EastGainer+13.818.64.92951Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
75MauritiusAfricaGainer+13.420.77.33351Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
76KuwaitGulf and Middle EastGainer+13.318.35.12950Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
77EgyptGulf and Middle EastGainer+12.717.65.04450Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational
79MongoliaIndo-PacificGainer+12.515.53.02340Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
78PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+12.517.95.42846Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
80BahrainGulf and Middle EastGainer+12.417.55.12649Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
81Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeGainer+12.015.13.12238Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
84LebanonGulf and Middle EastGainer+11.918.46.62534Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
83BruneiIndo-PacificGainer+11.914.72.82044Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
82LiechtensteinEuropeGainer+11.914.62.62548Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
85North KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+10.914.33.42132Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 3 · Nascent
87AlbaniaEuropeGainer+10.813.72.92043Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
86EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+10.816.65.82942Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
88BelarusRussia and EurasiaMixed+9.825.515.73448Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
89BangladeshSouth AsiaMixed+9.315.46.13339Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
90AlgeriaAfricaMixed+9.117.68.53143Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
91Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+9.014.85.82542Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
92JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.814.85.92441Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
93Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.614.55.92441Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
95KosovoEuropeMixed+8.511.93.31733Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
94Sri LankaSouth AsiaMixed+8.513.95.43146Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
96FijiIndo-PacificMixed+8.411.73.21836Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
98El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.814.06.22239Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
97GhanaAfricaMixed+7.816.68.83141Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
99PakistanSouth AsiaMixed+7.713.66.03240Population Health 5.3 · Nascent
100VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.614.77.12229Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
101ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.512.76.22139Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
102CambodiaIndo-PacificMixed+5.89.33.41732Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
105MaldivesSouth AsiaMixed+5.211.56.21838Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
104SenegalAfricaMixed+5.214.29.02940Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
103NigeriaAfricaMixed+5.214.08.92841Population Health 4.3 · Nascent
106SeychellesAfricaMixed+4.913.89.01940Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
107KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMixed+4.819.614.83751Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
108BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.710.96.21638Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
109GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMixed+4.519.615.13050Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
111BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.310.15.82042Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
110BotswanaAfricaMixed+4.313.28.92141Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
112Holy SeeEuropeMixed+3.97.53.6828Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
113LaosIndo-PacificMixed+3.87.53.71326Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
114MyanmarIndo-PacificMixed+3.67.53.91523Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
116PalauIndo-PacificMixed+3.37.13.81024Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
115BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.39.86.51835Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
117NamibiaAfricaMixed+3.212.59.32138Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
120NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.110.06.91731Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
119GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.19.76.62134Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
118KenyaAfricaMixed+3.111.68.53243Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
121HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.09.96.91831Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
122RwandaAfricaMixed+2.911.28.42944Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
123IraqGulf and Middle EastMixed+2.89.76.91931Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
124TongaIndo-PacificMixed+2.56.23.71126Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
126Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificMixed+2.16.03.9822Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
125SamoaIndo-PacificMixed+2.15.83.61227Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
127DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.09.07.01330Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
128SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.99.07.11429Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
129GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.78.76.91431Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
131PalestineGulf and Middle EastMixed+1.68.56.81632Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
130NepalSouth AsiaMixed+1.68.46.81932Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
132NauruIndo-PacificMixed+1.55.54.0719Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
133TuvaluIndo-PacificMixed+1.45.44.0820Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
134Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.38.06.71433Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
135ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaMixed+1.218.016.82644Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
136GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.18.16.91531Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
137Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.08.17.11329Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
139KiribatiIndo-PacificMixed+0.94.94.0820Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
138Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificMixed+0.94.83.91022Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
140BhutanSouth AsiaMixed+0.87.56.71433Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
142Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMixed+0.74.64.01220Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
141Cabo VerdeAfricaMixed+0.710.29.51637Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
144Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.67.67.11329Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
143Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.67.67.11329Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
145VanuatuIndo-PacificMixed+0.54.53.91022Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
146Timor-LesteIndo-PacificMixed+0.44.33.9922Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
147MicronesiaIndo-PacificMixed+0.34.34.0821Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
148BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanMixed0.07.07.01330Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
149TanzaniaAfricaMixed−0.49.59.92434Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
150MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMixed−0.815.516.32746Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
151GabonAfricaMixed−0.910.211.01526Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
153ZambiaAfricaMixed−1.19.510.61930Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
152UgandaAfricaMixed−1.18.89.92534Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent
154EthiopiaAfricaMixed−1.68.310.02434Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
155Côte d'IvoireAfricaMixed−1.78.410.21932Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
156AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaMixed−2.314.116.42546Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
157LibyaAfricaMixed−2.59.411.91321Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
158MozambiqueAfricaMixed−3.08.211.21726Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
159ZimbabweAfricaMixed−3.17.610.81928Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
160GambiaAfricaMixed−3.38.311.61423Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
161CameroonAfricaMixed−3.57.611.21726Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
162AngolaAfricaMixed−3.77.311.01427Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
163MadagascarAfricaMixed−4.07.411.41624Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
164MauritaniaAfricaMixed−4.67.111.71222Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
165SyriaGulf and Middle EastMixed−4.73.78.4916Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
167MalawiAfricaMixed−4.86.411.21726Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
166BeninAfricaMixed−4.86.010.81428Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
168LesothoAfricaMixed−5.06.611.61223Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
169TogoAfricaMixed−5.16.011.11326Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
170EswatiniAfricaMixed−5.26.211.31325Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
171DjiboutiAfricaMixed−5.46.411.8921Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
173HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−5.73.18.8712Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
172CongoAfricaMixed−5.76.211.91120Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
174Burkina FasoAfricaMixed−5.85.711.51424Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
175MaliAfricaMixed−5.95.911.81321Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
176UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−6.012.718.72738Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
177Sierra LeoneAfricaMixed−6.15.411.51323Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
178GuineaAfricaMixed−6.25.712.01220Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
179DR CongoAfricaMixed−6.45.912.31218Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
180AfghanistanSouth AsiaMixed−6.52.08.5615Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
182São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaMixed−6.65.011.61023Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
181LiberiaAfricaMixed−6.65.211.81121Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
183YemenGulf and Middle EastMixed−6.82.08.8512Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
184Equatorial GuineaAfricaMixed−7.24.912.2819Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
185NigerAfricaMixed−8.53.512.01220Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
186SudanAfricaMixed−8.73.912.61016Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
187EritreaAfricaMixed−9.03.612.6816Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
188BurundiAfricaMixed−9.13.212.3818Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
189ComorosAfricaMixed−9.23.212.4817Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
190Guinea-BissauAfricaLoser−10.22.712.8614Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
191ChadAfricaLoser−10.62.212.8615Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
192KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−10.88.819.61835Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
193Central African Rep.AfricaLoser−11.12.213.3511Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
194SomaliaAfricaLoser−11.22.213.4410Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
195South SudanAfricaLoser−11.32.113.4411Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
196TajikistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−15.85.521.31529Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
197TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−17.35.322.61225Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health TechnologiesPopulation HealthNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementInformation Environment & Strategic CommunicationGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResearch Talent & Knowledge Creation

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Health System CapabilityGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationInformation Environment & Strategic Communication
Gain exposure
regional exposure (30%); urban share of population (30%); share of population aged 65 and over (ranked) (20%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (20%).
Loss exposure
Standing outside the surveillance and manufacturing network: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results