Scenarios 2027 / Results / S18

Capture test · S18 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Great-power détente and peace dividend

B Geopolitical and security↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers55net position above +10
Mixed106between the two
Losers36net position below -10
Largest net gain+67United Kingdom

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−200+20+40+60Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +19.0Canada: +40.3North America mean: +29.6Europe 42France: +35.2United Kingdom: +66.6Germany: +43.4Netherlands: +44.6Sweden: +41.1Switzerland: +51.4Norway: +28.1Finland: +34.6Denmark: +38.8Spain: +22.4Italy: +26.4Belgium: +37.1Austria: +33.1Poland: +15.6Ireland: +43.5Portugal: +21.9Czechia: +20.8Estonia: +23.0Luxembourg: +25.4Lithuania: +19.2Greece: +15.6Hungary: +20.9Slovenia: +18.2Romania: +9.3Slovakia: +18.7Latvia: +14.7Iceland: +12.3Croatia: +11.4Serbia: +9.3Bulgaria: +8.9Malta: +18.5Cyprus: +11.5Liechtenstein: +15.5North Macedonia: +2.0Montenegro: −1.9Albania: −4.4Monaco: +3.6Bosnia & Herzegovina: −5.3Andorra: −7.0San Marino: −6.0Kosovo: −9.4Holy See: −16.3Europe mean: +19.3United KingdomSwitzerlandChina 1China: +42.9China mean: +42.9Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +34.8South Korea: +43.8Singapore: +48.8Australia: +24.3Taiwan: +13.2New Zealand: +21.8Malaysia: +19.8Thailand: +19.3Indonesia: +8.3Vietnam: +9.7Philippines: +7.2Mongolia: −4.3Brunei: −11.7Fiji: −8.6Cambodia: −5.4North Korea: −25.7Myanmar: −22.2Papua New Guinea: −19.5Laos: −15.5Samoa: −22.1Tonga: −23.9Timor-Leste: −23.2Vanuatu: −25.7Solomon Islands: −22.2Palau: −26.1Marshall Islands: −25.9Micronesia: −27.5Kiribati: −29.2Tuvalu: −29.5Nauru: −29.5Indo-Pacific mean: −4.9SingaporeKiribatiTuvaluNauruSouth Asia 8India: +2.2Pakistan: −7.3Sri Lanka: −6.4Bangladesh: −8.5Nepal: −14.3Maldives: −10.4Bhutan: −15.8Afghanistan: −25.6South Asia mean: −10.8Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +22.7Türkiye: +13.7United Arab Emirates: +31.5Saudi Arabia: +17.3Qatar: +14.1Egypt: +1.9Iran: +0.8Oman: +16.6Kuwait: +5.6Jordan: +9.9Bahrain: +7.0Iraq: −4.3Lebanon: −3.5Palestine: −9.4Syria: −15.8Yemen: −16.3Gulf and Middle East mean: +5.7Africa 53South Africa: +21.8Morocco: +16.4Mauritius: +14.0Tunisia: +9.6Nigeria: +7.6Kenya: +4.5Ghana: +7.6Algeria: +2.5Senegal: +6.1Botswana: +4.7Namibia: +8.6Rwanda: +5.3Tanzania: +1.9Ethiopia: +4.3Uganda: +2.4Côte d'Ivoire: +2.4Seychelles: +5.6Zambia: +4.9Cabo Verde: +1.4Angola: +5.7Cameroon: −0.8Zimbabwe: +0.1Mozambique: +3.3Benin: −0.9Togo: −1.6Gabon: +3.8Madagascar: +1.7Malawi: −1.9Eswatini: +0.6Sierra Leone: +2.7Mauritania: +2.0Burkina Faso: −2.5Lesotho: +2.4Mali: −2.9Gambia: −0.7Djibouti: +1.4Congo: +1.9Guinea: +0.5Niger: −3.6Libya: −2.1Liberia: −3.1DR Congo: +2.3São Tomé & Príncipe: −5.0Equatorial Guinea: −1.7Sudan: −5.2Burundi: −3.3Comoros: −5.6Chad: −4.5Guinea-Bissau: −6.1Eritrea: −4.8Central African Rep.: −6.2Somalia: −6.4South Sudan: −4.4Africa mean: +1.6Latin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +14.8Mexico: +10.9Chile: +21.0Argentina: −0.9Colombia: +4.1Peru: +10.0Uruguay: +4.8Costa Rica: +11.2Panama: +6.5Dominican Republic: +4.2Ecuador: +0.4Trinidad & Tobago: +0.7Jamaica: −0.9Cuba: −11.4Paraguay: −7.5El Salvador: −1.6Guatemala: −5.4Barbados: −8.5Bahamas: −7.5Bolivia: −12.4Honduras: −4.1Venezuela: −11.8Guyana: −9.3Nicaragua: −5.8Antigua & Barbuda: −12.2Grenada: −11.3Suriname: −13.2Belize: −12.4Dominica: −15.4Saint Lucia: −13.2Saint Kitts & Nevis: −13.1Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −14.6Haiti: −20.5Latin America and Caribbean mean: −3.8Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: +22.0Ukraine: −18.6Kazakhstan: +7.0Georgia: +6.9Belarus: +6.1Azerbaijan: +0.4Armenia: +5.0Moldova: +0.3Uzbekistan: −1.0Kyrgyzstan: −5.2Tajikistan: −6.8Turkmenistan: −7.2Russia and Eurasia mean: +0.7
Lowest: Tuvalu, Nauru, Kiribati. Highest: Singapore, Switzerland, United Kingdom.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−200+20+40+60Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 87.9, net position +19.00France (Europe): readiness 84, net position +35.20United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 81, net position +66.60Germany (Europe): readiness 87.5, net position +43.40Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 83.5, net position +34.80South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 77.8, net position +43.80China (China): readiness 85.3, net position +42.90Netherlands (Europe): readiness 80.3, net position +44.60Sweden (Europe): readiness 78.1, net position +41.10Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 78.7, net position +48.80Canada (North America): readiness 74.7, net position +40.30Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 70.2, net position +24.30Switzerland (Europe): readiness 81.5, net position +51.40Norway (Europe): readiness 72.4, net position +28.10Finland (Europe): readiness 73.5, net position +34.60Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 59.2, net position +22.70Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.7, net position +13.20Denmark (Europe): readiness 70.9, net position +38.80Spain (Europe): readiness 70.8, net position +22.40Italy (Europe): readiness 73.8, net position +26.40Belgium (Europe): readiness 72.3, net position +37.10New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 64.8, net position +21.80Austria (Europe): readiness 68.7, net position +33.10India (South Asia): readiness 62.1, net position +2.20Poland (Europe): readiness 62, net position +15.60Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 54, net position +22.00Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 65.8, net position +13.70Ireland (Europe): readiness 66.4, net position +43.50United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 69.9, net position +31.50Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 60.9, net position +14.80Portugal (Europe): readiness 59.6, net position +21.90Czechia (Europe): readiness 56.2, net position +20.80Estonia (Europe): readiness 55.2, net position +23.00Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 65, net position +19.80Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 59.4, net position +17.30Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 65.5, net position +10.90Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 57.5, net position +25.40South Africa (Africa): readiness 59.4, net position +21.80Lithuania (Europe): readiness 52.6, net position +19.20Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 60.3, net position +19.30Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 55.5, net position +21.00Greece (Europe): readiness 54.4, net position +15.60Hungary (Europe): readiness 54.4, net position +20.90Slovenia (Europe): readiness 50.1, net position +18.20Romania (Europe): readiness 50.3, net position +9.30Slovakia (Europe): readiness 49.7, net position +18.70Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 56.2, net position +8.30Latvia (Europe): readiness 48.3, net position +14.70Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 57.1, net position +9.70Iceland (Europe): readiness 46.4, net position +12.30Croatia (Europe): readiness 46.5, net position +11.40Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 37.5, net position −18.60Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.6, net position +14.10Morocco (Africa): readiness 56.2, net position +16.40Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.6, net position −0.90Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 47.7, net position +4.10Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 45.6, net position +1.90Serbia (Europe): readiness 44.5, net position +9.30Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 43.4, net position +8.90Malta (Europe): readiness 47.6, net position +18.50Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 49.1, net position +7.20Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 47.9, net position +10.00Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 43.2, net position +4.80Cyprus (Europe): readiness 43.3, net position +11.50Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.6, net position +0.80Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 42.4, net position +7.00Mauritius (Africa): readiness 41.2, net position +14.00Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 41, net position +16.60Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 35.9, net position −7.30Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 46.7, net position +11.20Tunisia (Africa): readiness 42.2, net position +9.60Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 37.6, net position +6.90Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 33.7, net position +5.60Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 38.7, net position +9.90Nigeria (Africa): readiness 38.4, net position +7.60Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 35.9, net position +7.00Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 38, net position −6.40Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 36.7, net position +15.50Kenya (Africa): readiness 37.9, net position +4.50Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.3, net position +6.50Ghana (Africa): readiness 38.8, net position +7.60Algeria (Africa): readiness 30.8, net position +2.50Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.5, net position +6.10Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38, net position +4.20Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 30.5, net position +0.40Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.8, net position +0.40Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 37, net position −8.50Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 34.4, net position +0.70Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.7, net position +5.00North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 33.1, net position +2.00Senegal (Africa): readiness 34.5, net position +6.10Montenegro (Europe): readiness 29.6, net position −1.90Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 30.1, net position +0.30Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.3, net position −0.90Albania (Europe): readiness 28.7, net position −4.40Botswana (Africa): readiness 29.6, net position +4.70Namibia (Africa): readiness 29.9, net position +8.60Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20, net position −11.40Rwanda (Africa): readiness 29.5, net position +5.30Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.9, net position −1.00Monaco (Europe): readiness 25.8, net position +3.60Tanzania (Africa): readiness 31.3, net position +1.90Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 27.4, net position −5.30Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.8, net position −7.50Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 26.1, net position −4.30Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 33, net position +4.30El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.9, net position −1.60Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33, net position −5.40Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 24.4, net position −11.70Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.3, net position −8.50Uganda (Africa): readiness 29.8, net position +2.40Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 32.2, net position +2.40Seychelles (Africa): readiness 24.2, net position +5.60Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.3, net position −7.50Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 27.8, net position −8.60Andorra (Europe): readiness 16.5, net position −7.00Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.5, net position −12.40Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.6, net position −4.10San Marino (Europe): readiness 18.2, net position −6.00Nepal (South Asia): readiness 21.9, net position −14.30Zambia (Africa): readiness 26.6, net position +4.90Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 29.8, net position −5.40Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 21.8, net position −5.20Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 20.3, net position +1.40Kosovo (Europe): readiness 21.1, net position −9.40Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.6, net position −4.30Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 23, net position −3.50Maldives (South Asia): readiness 22.5, net position −10.40Angola (Africa): readiness 24.1, net position +5.70Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.3, net position −11.80Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.8, net position −9.30Cameroon (Africa): readiness 24.3, net position −0.80Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.2, net position −5.80Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.8, net position −12.20Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 22.7, net position +0.10North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.1, net position −25.70Mozambique (Africa): readiness 24.3, net position +3.30Benin (Africa): readiness 21.4, net position −0.90Togo (Africa): readiness 23.3, net position −1.60Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.9, net position −11.30Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.6, net position −13.20Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.3, net position −12.40Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 18, net position −6.80Gabon (Africa): readiness 21.3, net position +3.80Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 15.5, net position −15.80Madagascar (Africa): readiness 22.4, net position +1.70Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 19.2, net position −22.20Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17, net position −15.40Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.4, net position −13.20Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.3, net position −13.10Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.2, net position −19.50Malawi (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position −1.90Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.3, net position −14.60Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 15.4, net position −9.40Eswatini (Africa): readiness 20.8, net position +0.60Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21, net position −15.50Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 18, net position +2.70Mauritania (Africa): readiness 19.3, net position +2.00Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 14.3, net position −7.20Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.7, net position −22.10Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 17.8, net position −2.50Lesotho (Africa): readiness 18, net position +2.40Mali (Africa): readiness 17.1, net position −2.90Gambia (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position −0.70Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.4, net position −23.90Djibouti (Africa): readiness 18.1, net position +1.40Congo (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position +1.90Guinea (Africa): readiness 16.2, net position +0.50Niger (Africa): readiness 14.5, net position −3.60Libya (Africa): readiness 12.5, net position −2.10Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12, net position −23.20Liberia (Africa): readiness 15.4, net position −3.10Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.2, net position −25.70Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.1, net position −22.20DR Congo (Africa): readiness 15.4, net position +2.30São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 12, net position −5.00Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.4, net position −26.10Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 14.8, net position −1.70Sudan (Africa): readiness 11, net position −5.20Burundi (Africa): readiness 12.4, net position −3.30Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13, net position −25.90Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.6, net position −27.50Comoros (Africa): readiness 10.6, net position −5.60Chad (Africa): readiness 11.2, net position −4.50Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 7.2, net position −15.80Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.8, net position −29.20Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7, net position −29.50Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 10.2, net position −6.10Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.8, net position −20.50Eritrea (Africa): readiness 7.2, net position −4.80Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.2, net position −29.50Holy See (Europe): readiness 6.5, net position −16.30Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 8.1, net position −6.20Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 6.5, net position −16.30Somalia (Africa): readiness 6.5, net position −6.40Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 5.2, net position −25.60South Sudan (Africa): readiness 6.2, net position −4.40United KingdomSingaporeSwitzerlandKiribatiTuvaluNauru
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: industries built behind tariffs, trade won by diversion, and interests traded in the settlement.

South Asia 8−10.8
Indo-Pacific 30−4.9
Latin America and Caribbean 33−3.8
Russia and Eurasia 12+0.7
Africa 53+1.6
Gulf and Middle East 16+5.7
Europe 42+19.3
North America 2+29.6
China 1+42.9

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1United KingdomEuropeGainer+66.671.75.18183Export Capability & Sophistication 15.7 · Advanced
2SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+51.456.04.68285Export Capability & Sophistication 16 · Advanced
3SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+48.855.46.77983Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 · Established
4NetherlandsEuropeGainer+44.650.25.68081Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15.5 · Advanced
5South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+43.851.47.67881Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · Established
6IrelandEuropeGainer+43.552.28.76671Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 12.3 · Established
7GermanyEuropeGainer+43.447.64.28886Export Capability & Sophistication 17.3 · Advanced
8ChinaChinaGainer+42.945.12.28578Trade Policy & Market Access 16.8 · Advanced
9SwedenEuropeGainer+41.146.25.17883Export Capability & Sophistication 15.3 · Advanced
10CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+40.348.58.37579Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
11DenmarkEuropeGainer+38.845.16.47179Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.3 · Established
12BelgiumEuropeGainer+37.145.07.97274Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.8 · Established
13FranceEuropeGainer+35.239.84.68485Export Capability & Sophistication 16.3 · Advanced
14JapanIndo-PacificGainer+34.841.46.58484Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 16 · Advanced
15FinlandEuropeGainer+34.640.56.07480Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
16AustriaEuropeGainer+33.140.77.56975Trade Facilitation & Logistics 13 · Established
17United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+31.537.86.37068Trade Policy & Market Access 13.3 · Established
18NorwayEuropeGainer+28.133.75.67281Export Capability & Sophistication 13.7 · Established
19ItalyEuropeGainer+26.435.49.07470Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
20LuxembourgEuropeGainer+25.435.510.15866Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional
21AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+24.333.69.37077Export Capability & Sophistication 13.3 · Established
22EstoniaEuropeGainer+23.032.59.45569Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional
23IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+22.729.16.45968Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional
24SpainEuropeGainer+22.431.18.77171Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.8 · Established
25RussiaRussia and EurasiaGainer+22.029.97.95461Investment Attraction & Projection 10 · Transitional
26PortugalEuropeGainer+21.932.210.36066Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.5 · Transitional
28South AfricaAfricaGainer+21.825.84.05960Export Capability & Sophistication 11.3 · Transitional
27New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+21.832.610.86573Export Capability & Sophistication 12.3 · Established
29ChileLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+21.032.311.35662Export Capability & Sophistication 10.3 · Transitional
30HungaryEuropeGainer+20.933.112.25459Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.8 · Transitional
31CzechiaEuropeGainer+20.831.811.05663Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional
32MalaysiaIndo-PacificGainer+19.844.724.96564Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 12 · Established
33ThailandIndo-PacificGainer+19.339.220.06060Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.3 · Transitional
34LithuaniaEuropeGainer+19.230.611.45362Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
35United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+19.024.85.88886Export Capability & Sophistication 17 · Advanced
36SlovakiaEuropeGainer+18.731.312.55058Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.8 · Foundational
37MaltaEuropeGainer+18.531.312.94857Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
38SloveniaEuropeGainer+18.229.911.75061Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational
39Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastGainer+17.324.67.35964Export Capability & Sophistication 11 · Transitional
40OmanGulf and Middle EastGainer+16.626.19.54153Export Capability & Sophistication 7 · Foundational
41MoroccoAfricaGainer+16.420.84.45656Export Capability & Sophistication 10.7 · Transitional
43GreeceEuropeGainer+15.628.312.75458Export Capability & Sophistication 10 · Transitional
42PolandEuropeGainer+15.632.817.26266Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.8 · Transitional
44LiechtensteinEuropeGainer+15.529.413.93754Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent
45BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+14.825.510.66165Export Capability & Sophistication 11.7 · Transitional
46LatviaEuropeGainer+14.727.312.54858Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational
47QatarGulf and Middle EastGainer+14.122.28.14859Export Capability & Sophistication 8 · Foundational
48MauritiusAfricaGainer+14.018.74.74153Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.8 · Foundational
49TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+13.720.56.86666Export Capability & Sophistication 12.7 · Established
50TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+13.238.525.35368Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational
51IcelandEuropeGainer+12.324.512.24659Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
52CyprusEuropeGainer+11.526.114.74351Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.5 · Foundational
53CroatiaEuropeGainer+11.424.913.64755Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational
54Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.225.514.34752Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.8 · Foundational
55MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+10.940.930.16662Trade Facilitation & Logistics 12.5 · Established
56PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+10.024.414.54852Export Capability & Sophistication 9 · Transitional
57JordanGulf and Middle EastMixed+9.920.810.93946Export Capability & Sophistication 7 · Foundational
58VietnamIndo-PacificMixed+9.744.634.85757Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.8 · Transitional
59TunisiaAfricaMixed+9.614.95.34247Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational
61SerbiaEuropeMixed+9.323.814.54552Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
60RomaniaEuropeMixed+9.322.513.35056Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.3 · Transitional
62BulgariaEuropeMixed+8.923.614.74351Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational
63NamibiaAfricaMixed+8.614.66.03040Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
64IndonesiaIndo-PacificMixed+8.324.816.55659Export Capability & Sophistication 10.7 · Transitional
66GhanaAfricaMixed+7.613.15.53945Export Capability & Sophistication 7 · Foundational
65NigeriaAfricaMixed+7.613.35.73843Export Capability & Sophistication 6.7 · Foundational
67PhilippinesIndo-PacificMixed+7.226.719.54951Export Capability & Sophistication 9.3 · Transitional
69BahrainGulf and Middle EastMixed+7.018.011.03645Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
68KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMixed+7.017.110.14249Export Capability & Sophistication 8 · Foundational
70GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMixed+6.917.210.43848Export Capability & Sophistication 6.7 · Foundational
71PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.522.315.74548Export Capability & Sophistication 7.7 · Foundational
73SenegalAfricaMixed+6.111.85.63544Export Capability & Sophistication 6 · Foundational
72BelarusRussia and EurasiaMixed+6.118.011.82841Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
74AngolaAfricaMixed+5.712.66.92431Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
76SeychellesAfricaMixed+5.611.96.22438Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.3 · Nascent
75KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMixed+5.617.311.73442Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
77RwandaAfricaMixed+5.311.05.73043Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent
78ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaMixed+5.016.811.83041Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent
79ZambiaAfricaMixed+4.911.66.72733Export Capability & Sophistication 4.7 · Nascent
80UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.818.013.24356Export Capability & Sophistication 8 · Foundational
81BotswanaAfricaMixed+4.710.45.73043Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
82KenyaAfricaMixed+4.59.85.33847Export Capability & Sophistication 6.3 · Foundational
83EthiopiaAfricaMixed+4.310.56.13339Export Capability & Sophistication 6 · Foundational
84Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.221.116.93844Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.8 · Foundational
85ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.118.114.14853Export Capability & Sophistication 9 · Transitional
86GabonAfricaMixed+3.811.17.32127Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent
87MonacoEuropeMixed+3.620.717.12643Export Capability & Sophistication 4.7 · Nascent
88MozambiqueAfricaMixed+3.310.77.42426Export Capability & Sophistication 4.3 · Nascent
89Sierra LeoneAfricaMixed+2.710.07.41826Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
90AlgeriaAfricaMixed+2.58.25.83142Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
93LesothoAfricaMixed+2.410.07.61824Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
92Côte d'IvoireAfricaMixed+2.48.76.23238Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
91UgandaAfricaMixed+2.48.76.33037Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
94DR CongoAfricaMixed+2.310.48.21518Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
95IndiaSouth AsiaMixed+2.220.017.86264Global Value Chain Position 11.7 · Transitional
97MauritaniaAfricaMixed+2.09.57.51925Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
96North MacedoniaEuropeMixed+2.019.217.23343Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
100CongoAfricaMixed+1.99.77.81722Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
99TanzaniaAfricaMixed+1.98.06.23139Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
98EgyptGulf and Middle EastMixed+1.911.59.64652Export Capability & Sophistication 8 · Foundational
101MadagascarAfricaMixed+1.79.17.42226Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
103DjiboutiAfricaMixed+1.49.27.81822Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
102Cabo VerdeAfricaMixed+1.48.06.52035Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
104IranGulf and Middle EastMixed+0.812.411.72942Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
105Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.717.917.23443Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.5 · Foundational
106EswatiniAfricaMixed+0.68.07.42126Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent
107GuineaAfricaMixed+0.58.47.91621Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
109EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+0.417.917.53642Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational
108AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaMixed+0.412.011.63142Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
110MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMixed+0.312.512.23039Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
111ZimbabweAfricaMixed+0.17.57.42326Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
112GambiaAfricaMixed−0.76.97.61724Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
113CameroonAfricaMixed−0.86.37.22428Export Capability & Sophistication 4.3 · Nascent
116BeninAfricaMixed−0.96.17.02130Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent
115JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−0.916.917.83141Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
114ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−0.913.514.44652Export Capability & Sophistication 8.3 · Foundational
117UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−1.011.012.03040Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
119TogoAfricaMixed−1.65.57.12329Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
118El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−1.617.218.83237Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
120Equatorial GuineaAfricaMixed−1.76.38.01520Export Capability & Sophistication 2.3 · Inception
122MalawiAfricaMixed−1.95.77.61924Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
121MontenegroEuropeMixed−1.916.318.23039Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
123LibyaAfricaMixed−2.16.38.41316Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
124Burkina FasoAfricaMixed−2.55.07.51825Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
125MaliAfricaMixed−2.94.87.71723Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
126LiberiaAfricaMixed−3.14.87.91521Export Capability & Sophistication 2.3 · Inception
127BurundiAfricaMixed−3.34.98.21218Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception
128LebanonGulf and Middle EastMixed−3.511.515.02325Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
129NigerAfricaMixed−3.64.37.91521Export Capability & Sophistication 2.3 · Inception
130HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−4.116.420.52932Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent
132IraqGulf and Middle EastMixed−4.310.114.42028Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
131MongoliaIndo-PacificMixed−4.320.324.62639Export Capability & Sophistication 4.7 · Nascent
134South SudanAfricaMixed−4.44.69.0610Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception
133AlbaniaEuropeMixed−4.413.117.62942Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent
135ChadAfricaMixed−4.53.98.41116Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception
136EritreaAfricaMixed−4.83.98.7713Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
137São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaMixed−5.02.87.81222Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
139SudanAfricaMixed−5.23.38.51115Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
138KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaMixed−5.28.513.72232Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent
140Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeMixed−5.314.519.72734Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent
142CambodiaIndo-PacificMixed−5.421.226.63034Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
141GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−5.413.819.13336Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
143ComorosAfricaMixed−5.62.78.31117Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
144NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−5.815.321.02330Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
145San MarinoEuropeMixed−6.012.118.11840Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 2.8 · Inception
146Guinea-BissauAfricaMixed−6.12.48.51015Export Capability & Sophistication 1.7 · Inception
147Central African Rep.AfricaMixed−6.22.68.8812Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception
149SomaliaAfricaMixed−6.42.58.9711Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception
148Sri LankaSouth AsiaMixed−6.411.117.53842Investment Attraction & Projection 7 · Foundational
150TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−6.87.514.21829Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
151AndorraEuropeMixed−7.011.418.41739Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
152TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaMixed−7.27.915.11424Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
153PakistanSouth AsiaMixed−7.310.317.63641Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational
155BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.512.820.22333Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent
154ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.510.818.33139Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
157BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−8.59.818.22439Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
156BangladeshSouth AsiaMixed−8.59.317.83741Investment Attraction & Projection 7 · Foundational
158FijiIndo-PacificMixed−8.616.925.42837Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent
159GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−9.311.520.82331Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
161PalestineGulf and Middle EastMixed−9.45.414.81526Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
160KosovoEuropeMixed−9.411.320.72131Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent
162MaldivesSouth AsiaLoser−10.49.720.12333Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
163GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−11.310.221.51828Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
164CubaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−11.47.819.22036Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
165BruneiIndo-PacificLoser−11.714.025.72436Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
166VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−11.810.822.61725Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
167Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−12.28.921.21929Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
169BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−12.49.321.71828Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
168BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−12.47.519.92434Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
170Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−13.18.621.81628Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
172Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−13.28.521.81728Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
171SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−13.28.421.61928Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
173NepalSouth AsiaLoser−14.36.520.72231Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
174Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−14.67.021.61628Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
175DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−15.46.221.61728Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
176LaosIndo-PacificLoser−15.514.329.92125Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent
178SyriaGulf and Middle EastLoser−15.81.717.5712Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
177BhutanSouth AsiaLoser−15.84.920.71631Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
180YemenGulf and Middle EastLoser−16.31.818.0710Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception
179Holy SeeEuropeLoser−16.35.221.5728Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception
181UkraineRussia and EurasiaLoser−18.616.535.13850Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational
182Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificLoser−19.510.630.12225Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
183HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−20.55.526.01113Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
184SamoaIndo-PacificLoser−22.16.929.11527Export Capability & Sophistication 2.3 · Inception
186Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−22.29.031.21322Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception
185MyanmarIndo-PacificLoser−22.29.331.61921Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
187Timor-LesteIndo-PacificLoser−23.27.430.61224Export Capability & Sophistication 1.7 · Inception
188TongaIndo-PacificLoser−23.96.630.51224Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception
189AfghanistanSouth AsiaLoser−25.61.226.8511Investment Attraction & Projection 0.7 · Inception
191VanuatuIndo-PacificLoser−25.75.230.91323Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception
190North KoreaIndo-PacificLoser−25.76.231.9820Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
192Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−25.96.232.11320Export Capability & Sophistication 1.7 · Inception
193PalauIndo-PacificLoser−26.15.131.21122Export Capability & Sophistication 1.7 · Inception
194MicronesiaIndo-PacificLoser−27.55.032.51019Export Capability & Sophistication 1.3 · Inception
195KiribatiIndo-PacificLoser−29.23.532.7818Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
197NauruIndo-PacificLoser−29.53.533.0718Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception
196TuvaluIndo-PacificLoser−29.53.132.6719Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Trade Policy & Market AccessExport Capability & SophisticationTrade Facilitation & LogisticsDiplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksGlobal Value Chain PositionInvestment Attraction & Projection

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Structural Transformation & ComplexityGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationDiplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksFiscal Capacity & Public Finance
Gain exposure
regional exposure (40%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (30%); share of exports going to china and the united states (30%).
Loss exposure
Industries built behind tariffs, trade won by diversion, and interests traded in the settlement: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
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