Scenarios 2027 / Results / S03

Load test · S03 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Global financial crisis

A Economic and tradeScenario record

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation−0.64median change in index, points
Hardest hit−1.15North Korea
Lose a domain band159of 197 nations
Worth of best practice+0.23mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.32Canada: −0.38North America mean: −0.35Europe 42France: −0.41United Kingdom: −0.51Germany: −0.39Netherlands: −0.47Sweden: −0.40Switzerland: −0.36Norway: −0.34Finland: −0.44Denmark: −0.43Spain: −0.52Italy: −0.54Belgium: −0.59Austria: −0.55Poland: −0.55Ireland: −0.54Portugal: −0.62Czechia: −0.54Estonia: −0.53Luxembourg: −0.48Lithuania: −0.56Greece: −0.68Hungary: −0.71Slovenia: −0.69Romania: −0.57Slovakia: −0.68Latvia: −0.58Iceland: −0.61Croatia: −0.67Serbia: −0.74Bulgaria: −0.59Malta: −0.67Cyprus: −0.78Liechtenstein: −0.79North Macedonia: −0.75Montenegro: −0.87Albania: −0.74Monaco: −0.97Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.75Andorra: −0.78San Marino: −0.94Kosovo: −0.70Holy See: −0.74Europe mean: −0.61China 1China: −0.26China mean: −0.26ChinaIndo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.38South Korea: −0.42Singapore: −0.46Australia: −0.34Taiwan: −0.47New Zealand: −0.39Malaysia: −0.58Thailand: −0.62Indonesia: −0.42Vietnam: −0.75Philippines: −0.50Mongolia: −0.85Brunei: −0.62Fiji: −0.78Cambodia: −0.82North Korea: −1.15Myanmar: −0.66Papua New Guinea: −0.70Laos: −0.91Samoa: −0.83Tonga: −0.82Timor-Leste: −0.64Vanuatu: −0.81Solomon Islands: −0.65Palau: −0.96Marshall Islands: −0.91Micronesia: −0.81Kiribati: −0.78Tuvalu: −0.85Nauru: −0.98Indo-Pacific mean: −0.70North KoreaNauruSouth Asia 8India: −0.31Pakistan: −0.48Sri Lanka: −0.52Bangladesh: −0.35Nepal: −0.47Maldives: −0.82Bhutan: −0.72Afghanistan: −0.41South Asia mean: −0.51Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.37Türkiye: −0.35United Arab Emirates: −0.40Saudi Arabia: −0.25Qatar: −0.42Egypt: −0.51Iran: −0.47Oman: −0.54Kuwait: −0.41Jordan: −0.70Bahrain: −0.70Iraq: −0.48Lebanon: −1.01Palestine: −0.56Syria: −0.67Yemen: −0.65Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.53Saudi ArabiaLebanonAfrica 53South Africa: −0.53Morocco: −0.65Mauritius: −0.63Tunisia: −0.73Nigeria: −0.50Kenya: −0.54Ghana: −0.69Algeria: −0.49Senegal: −0.63Botswana: −0.51Namibia: −0.62Rwanda: −0.59Tanzania: −0.48Ethiopia: −0.48Uganda: −0.59Côte d'Ivoire: −0.58Seychelles: −0.88Zambia: −0.83Cabo Verde: −0.91Angola: −0.78Cameroon: −0.52Zimbabwe: −0.77Mozambique: −0.88Benin: −0.64Togo: −0.71Gabon: −0.84Madagascar: −0.66Malawi: −0.70Eswatini: −0.72Sierra Leone: −0.67Mauritania: −0.92Burkina Faso: −0.70Lesotho: −0.74Mali: −0.60Gambia: −0.94Djibouti: −0.91Congo: −0.90Guinea: −0.73Niger: −0.58Libya: −0.82Liberia: −0.63DR Congo: −0.69São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.79Equatorial Guinea: −0.69Sudan: −0.84Burundi: −0.80Comoros: −0.56Chad: −0.66Guinea-Bissau: −0.68Eritrea: −0.84Central African Rep.: −0.70Somalia: −0.96South Sudan: −0.94Africa mean: −0.71Latin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.47Mexico: −0.47Chile: −0.39Argentina: −0.57Colombia: −0.52Peru: −0.43Uruguay: −0.56Costa Rica: −0.62Panama: −0.61Dominican Republic: −0.52Ecuador: −0.64Trinidad & Tobago: −0.60Jamaica: −0.78Cuba: −0.65Paraguay: −0.56El Salvador: −0.89Guatemala: −0.53Barbados: −0.77Bahamas: −0.77Bolivia: −0.65Honduras: −0.68Venezuela: −0.79Guyana: −0.73Nicaragua: −0.73Antigua & Barbuda: −0.93Grenada: −0.96Suriname: −0.94Belize: −0.91Dominica: −0.82Saint Lucia: −0.92Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.88Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.89Haiti: −0.56Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.69Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.28Ukraine: −0.56Kazakhstan: −0.36Georgia: −0.57Belarus: −0.65Azerbaijan: −0.43Armenia: −0.68Moldova: −0.55Uzbekistan: −0.39Kyrgyzstan: −0.57Tajikistan: −0.50Turkmenistan: −0.38Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.49Russia
Lowest: North Korea, Lebanon, Nauru. Highest: Russia, China, Saudi Arabia.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.32France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.41United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.51Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.39Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.38South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.42China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.26Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.47Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.40Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.46Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.38Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.34Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.36Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.34Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.44Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.37Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.47Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.43Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.52Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.54Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.59New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.39Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.55India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.31Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.55Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.28Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.35Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.54United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.40Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.47Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.62Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.54Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.53Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.58Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.25Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.47Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.48South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.53Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.56Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.62Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.39Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.68Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.71Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.69Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.57Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.68Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.42Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.58Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.75Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.61Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.67Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.56Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.42Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.65Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.57Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.52Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.51Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.74Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.59Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.67Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.50Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.43Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.56Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.78Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.47Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.36Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.63Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.54Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.48Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.62Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.73Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.57Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.41Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.70Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.50Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.70Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.52Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.79Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.54Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.61Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.69Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.49Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.65Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.52Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.43Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.64Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.35Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.60Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.68North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.75Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.63Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.87Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.55Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.78Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.74Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.51Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.62Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.65Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.59Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.39Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.97Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.48Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.75Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.56Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.85Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.48El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.89Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.53Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.62Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.77Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.59Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.58Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.88Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.77Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.78Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.78Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.65Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.68San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.94Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.47Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.83Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.82Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.57Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.91Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.70Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.48Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −1.01Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.82Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.78Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.79Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.73Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.52Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.73Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.93Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.77North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −1.15Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.88Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.64Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.71Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.96Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.94Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.91Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.50Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.84Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.72Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.66Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.66Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.82Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.92Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.88Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.70Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.70Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.89Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.56Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.72Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.91Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.67Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.92Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.38Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.83Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.70Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.74Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.60Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.94Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.82Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.91Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.90Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.73Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.58Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.82Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.64Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.63Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.81Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.65DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.69São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.79Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.96Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.69Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.84Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.80Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.91Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.81Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.56Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.66Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.67Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.78Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.85Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.68Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.56Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.84Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.98Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.74Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.70Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.65Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.96Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.41South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.94ChinaRussiaSaudi ArabiaLebanonNorth KoreaNauru
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Financial Strength−1.09
Production & Innovation−0.93
Governance & Integrity−0.83
Trade & Investment−0.75
Information & Influence−0.67
Human Capital−0.66
Strategic Infrastructure−0.33
National Security−0.28
Critical Technology−0.24

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

−1.2−1.0−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20.0Change in capability index, pointsNorth KoreaNorth Korea, no response: −1.19North Korea, current plans: −1.15North Korea, best practice: −0.60LebanonLebanon, no response: −1.14Lebanon, current plans: −1.01Lebanon, best practice: −0.50NauruNauru, no response: −1.04Nauru, current plans: −0.98Nauru, best practice: −0.51MonacoMonaco, no response: −1.38Monaco, current plans: −0.97Monaco, best practice: −0.61GrenadaGrenada, no response: −1.20Grenada, current plans: −0.96Grenada, best practice: −0.53PalauPalau, no response: −1.06Palau, current plans: −0.96Palau, best practice: −0.49SomaliaSomalia, no response: −1.00Somalia, current plans: −0.96Somalia, best practice: −0.52San MarinoSan Marino, no response: −1.24San Marino, current plans: −0.94San Marino, best practice: −0.55SurinameSuriname, no response: −1.14Suriname, current plans: −0.94Suriname, best practice: −0.50GambiaGambia, no response: −1.11Gambia, current plans: −0.94Gambia, best practice: −0.49South SudanSouth Sudan, no response: −0.96South Sudan, current plans: −0.94South Sudan, best practice: −0.53Antigua & BarbudaAntigua & Barbuda, no response: −1.20Antigua & Barbuda, current plans: −0.93Antigua & Barbuda, best practice: −0.53Saint LuciaSaint Lucia, no response: −1.15Saint Lucia, current plans: −0.92Saint Lucia, best practice: −0.51MauritaniaMauritania, no response: −1.10Mauritania, current plans: −0.92Mauritania, best practice: −0.48Cabo VerdeCabo Verde, no response: −1.19Cabo Verde, current plans: −0.91Cabo Verde, best practice: −0.52BelizeBelize, no response: −1.15Belize, current plans: −0.91Belize, best practice: −0.51LaosLaos, no response: −1.07Laos, current plans: −0.91Laos, best practice: −0.47DjiboutiDjibouti, no response: −1.08Djibouti, current plans: −0.91Djibouti, best practice: −0.48Marshall IslandsMarshall Islands, no response: −0.98Marshall Islands, current plans: −0.91Marshall Islands, best practice: −0.45CongoCongo, no response: −1.07Congo, current plans: −0.90Congo, best practice: −0.47
No responseCurrent plansBest practice
Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Weakest point
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 1.004.263.12−1.15−26.9▼ 10244%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
LebanonGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.774.663.64−1.01−21.8▼ 531 · 3d11%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
NauruIndo-PacificHigh 0.851.960.98−0.98−49.9▼ 211 · 2d8%Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 0.965.914.94−0.97−16.5▼ 721 · 3d30%Economic Output & Productivity 3.5 · Nascent
GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.854.043.08−0.96−23.7▼ 1020 · 3d21%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception
PalauIndo-PacificHigh 0.792.841.88−0.96−33.7▼ 120 · 2d11%Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception
SomaliaAfricaHigh 0.831.620.66−0.96−59.1▼ 146%Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 0 · Inception
San MarinoEuropeHigh 0.915.034.09−0.94−18.6▼ 519 · 3d25%Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.804.043.09−0.94−23.3▼ 820 · 4d18%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
GambiaAfricaHigh 0.783.322.38−0.94−28.3▼ 319 · 5d16%Economic Output & Productivity 0.5 · Inception
South SudanAfricaHigh 0.881.380.44−0.94−68.0035%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.854.363.43−0.93−21.3▼ 316 · 2d23%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.833.852.93−0.92−24.0▼ 619 · 2d21%Economic Output & Productivity 1 · Inception
MauritaniaAfricaHigh 0.753.582.67−0.92−25.6▼ 419 · 5d17%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.9 · Inception
Cabo VerdeAfricaHigh 0.834.723.81−0.91−19.3▼ 421 · 2d23%Economic Output & Productivity 2.1 · Inception
BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.814.033.12−0.91−22.5▼ 317 · 2d21%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.4 · Inception
LaosIndo-PacificHigh 0.743.702.80−0.91−24.4▼ 323 · 3d15%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.4 · Inception
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.763.202.30−0.91−28.3▼ 424 · 4d16%Economic Output & Productivity 0.6 · Inception
Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.732.481.57−0.91−36.6▼ 211 · 2d10%Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception
CongoAfricaHigh 0.743.192.28−0.90−28.4▼ 423 · 5d15%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.9 · Inception
El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.785.684.79−0.89−15.6▼ 424 · 4d23%Investment Attraction & Projection 3.9 · Nascent
Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.793.762.87−0.89−23.6▼ 415 · 4d20%Investment Attraction & Projection 0.8 · Inception
SeychellesAfricaHigh 0.855.274.40−0.88−16.6▼ 222 · 2d29%Investment Attraction & Projection 3.2 · Nascent
MozambiqueAfricaHigh 0.734.123.24−0.88−21.3▼ 218 · 1d18%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 · Inception
Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.783.832.96−0.88−22.9▼ 416 · 4d21%Economic Output & Productivity 1.1 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeHigh 0.806.355.48−0.87−13.7▼ 315 · 6d27%Investment Attraction & Projection 3.9 · Nascent
MongoliaIndo-PacificHigh 0.785.734.89−0.85−14.8▼ 413 · 3d26%Investment Attraction & Projection 3.6 · Nascent
TuvaluIndo-PacificHigh 0.712.121.27−0.85−40.0▼ 26 · 1d9%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
GabonAfricaHigh 0.713.943.10−0.84−21.4▼ 420 · 1d18%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.8 · Inception
SudanAfricaHigh 0.622.611.77−0.84−32.1013 · 2d7%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
EritreaAfricaHigh 0.692.011.17−0.84−41.608 · 1d7%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
ZambiaAfricaHigh 0.724.934.10−0.83−16.8▼ 22222%Economic Output & Productivity 3.3 · Nascent
SamoaIndo-PacificHigh 0.713.482.65−0.83−23.8▼ 322 · 4d17%Investment Attraction & Projection 0.6 · Inception
CambodiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.734.934.11−0.82−16.6021 · 2d24%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.7 · Inception
MaldivesSouth AsiaHigh 0.724.623.80−0.82−17.8▼ 124 · 1d21%Economic Output & Productivity 2.8 · Inception
DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.743.873.05−0.82−21.2▼ 414 · 3d21%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.6 · Inception
TongaIndo-PacificHigh 0.683.212.39−0.82−25.5▼ 121 · 4d15%Economic Output & Productivity 0.3 · Inception
LibyaAfricaHigh 0.633.012.19−0.82−27.1▼ 32611%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.1 · Inception
VanuatuIndo-PacificHigh 0.682.932.11−0.81−27.7▼ 218 · 1d15%Investment Attraction & Projection 0.6 · Inception
MicronesiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.642.331.52−0.81−34.7▼ 313 · 1d9%Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception
BurundiAfricaHigh 0.652.481.68−0.80−32.4▼ 121 · 3d12%Economic Output & Productivity 0.3 · Inception
LiechtensteinEuropeHigh 0.857.226.43−0.79−11.0▼ 318 · 6d35%Economic Output & Productivity 6.3 · Foundational
VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.594.553.76−0.79−17.3▼ 127 · 3d10%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.7 · Inception
São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaHigh 0.672.852.06−0.79−27.7▼ 122 · 2d15%Investment Attraction & Projection 0.3 · Inception
CyprusEuropeHigh 0.928.517.73−0.78−9.2▼ 123 · 1d43%Economic Output & Productivity 6.9 · Foundational
JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.786.245.46−0.78−12.5▼ 224 · 3d32%Economic Output & Productivity 3.9 · Nascent
FijiIndo-PacificHigh 0.705.164.38−0.78−15.1▼ 222 · 1d24%Economic Output & Productivity 2.4 · Inception
AndorraEuropeHigh 0.775.154.38−0.78−15.1▼ 221 · 1d27%Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
AngolaAfricaHigh 0.674.603.82−0.78−16.9▲ 214 · 1d22%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2.2 · Inception
KiribatiIndo-PacificHigh 0.642.201.42−0.78−35.4▼ 113 · 1d10%Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception
BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.755.564.79−0.77−13.8▼ 211 · 3d29%Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent
BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.775.164.40−0.77−14.9▼ 219 · 1d31%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3.6 · Nascent
ZimbabweAfricaMedium 0.594.343.57−0.77−17.7▲ 119 · 3d13%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2.1 · Inception
VietnamIndo-PacificHigh 0.799.688.92−0.75−7.8▼ 226 · 2d36%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.8 · Inception
North MacedoniaEuropeHigh 0.736.615.86−0.75−11.3020 · 3d30%Economic Output & Productivity 5 · Nascent
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeHigh 0.685.805.05−0.75−12.9▼ 213 · 4d26%Investment Attraction & Projection 3.8 · Nascent
SerbiaEuropeHigh 0.798.978.23−0.74−8.2▼ 226 · 3d37%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 7.8 · Foundational
AlbaniaEuropeHigh 0.716.135.39−0.74−12.1▼ 215 · 5d29%Investment Attraction & Projection 3.8 · Nascent
LesothoAfricaHigh 0.633.432.69−0.74−21.5▲ 118 · 1d18%Economic Output & Productivity 1.4 · Inception
Holy SeeEuropeHigh 1.001.851.10−0.74−40.2▲ 18 · 1d6%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
TunisiaAfricaHigh 0.687.716.98−0.73−9.5▼ 119 · 1d28%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5.9 · Nascent
GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.654.533.79−0.73−16.2▲ 118 · 1d22%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2.7 · Inception
NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.624.373.64−0.73−16.8021 · 2d20%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.5 · Inception
GuineaAfricaMedium 0.593.152.42−0.73−23.2▲ 318 · 4d14%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.2 · Inception
BhutanSouth AsiaHigh 0.643.933.20−0.72−18.4▲ 313 · 3d21%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.2 · Inception
EswatiniAfricaHigh 0.623.712.99−0.72−19.3▲ 21420%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.5 · Inception
HungaryEuropeHigh 0.8410.519.81−0.71−6.7024 · 1d44%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.9 · Foundational
TogoAfricaHigh 0.614.053.34−0.71−17.5▲ 11921%Economic Output & Productivity 2.5 · Inception
JordanGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.697.506.80−0.70−9.3▼ 11832%Economic Output & Productivity 5.1 · Nascent
BahrainGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.767.326.62−0.70−9.6▼ 223 · 1d38%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.6 · Inception
KosovoEuropeHigh 0.604.704.00−0.70−14.901421%Investment Attraction & Projection 2.6 · Inception
Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMedium 0.593.803.10−0.70−18.4▲ 416 · 1d19%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2.1 · Inception
MalawiAfricaMedium 0.573.763.06−0.70−18.7▲ 121 · 3d16%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2.3 · Inception
Burkina FasoAfricaMedium 0.603.472.77−0.70−20.3▲ 120 · 2d18%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.8 · Inception
Central African Rep.AfricaMedium 0.561.660.96−0.70−42.1▼ 279%Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception
SloveniaEuropeHigh 0.8510.489.79−0.69−6.6015 · 2d46%Investment Attraction & Projection 9.3 · Transitional
GhanaAfricaHigh 0.656.986.29−0.69−9.9▼ 417 · 1d29%Labour & Employment 5.4 · Nascent
DR CongoAfricaMedium 0.542.872.19−0.69−23.9▲ 119 · 5d12%Labour & Employment 1.1 · Inception
Equatorial GuineaAfricaMedium 0.562.802.11−0.69−24.7▲ 221 · 3d15%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.6 · Inception
GreeceEuropeHigh 0.8310.619.93−0.68−6.4▼ 11845%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 8.6 · Foundational
SlovakiaEuropeHigh 0.8410.109.42−0.68−6.7▼ 125 · 4d45%Investment Attraction & Projection 9 · Foundational
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.656.655.97−0.68−10.2015 · 3d30%Investment Attraction & Projection 4.3 · Nascent
HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.595.054.37−0.68−13.4▼ 117 · 5d23%Economic Output & Productivity 3.6 · Nascent
Guinea-BissauAfricaMedium 0.542.071.39−0.68−32.8018 · 1d11%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.3 · Inception
CroatiaEuropeHigh 0.809.538.86−0.67−7.1▼ 123 · 2d44%Investment Attraction & Projection 7.3 · Foundational
MaltaEuropeHigh 0.838.898.22−0.67−7.5▼ 120 · 4d46%Economic Output & Productivity 7.1 · Foundational
Sierra LeoneAfricaMedium 0.563.592.93−0.67−18.6▲ 120 · 3d18%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.9 · Inception
SyriaGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.502.221.55−0.67−30.2▲ 111 · 1d4%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
MadagascarAfricaMedium 0.543.903.24−0.66−17.0▲ 61217%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2.3 · Inception
MyanmarIndo-PacificMedium 0.513.893.23−0.66−17.0▲ 617 · 4d13%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
ChadAfricaMedium 0.532.261.61−0.66−29.0▲ 217 · 2d12%Economic Output & Productivity 0.6 · Inception
MoroccoAfricaHigh 0.729.368.71−0.65−6.9010 · 3d40%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.7 · Foundational
BelarusRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.556.906.26−0.65−9.4▼ 320 · 3d21%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2 · Inception
CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.505.955.30−0.65−10.9▼ 218 · 2d13%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.7 · Inception
BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.565.114.45−0.65−12.8▲ 31921%Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificMedium 0.552.912.26−0.65−22.4▲ 214 · 2d16%Economic Output & Productivity 1.1 · Inception
YemenGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.491.620.97−0.65−40.1054%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.576.766.12−0.64−9.4▼ 119 · 1d25%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 · Nascent
BeninAfricaMedium 0.554.093.45−0.64−15.7▲ 215 · 1d21%Economic Output & Productivity 2.7 · Inception
Timor-LesteIndo-PacificMedium 0.532.982.35−0.64−21.3▲ 319 · 3d15%Economic Output & Productivity 0.7 · Inception
MauritiusAfricaHigh 0.748.087.45−0.63−7.8▼ 214 · 2d43%Economic Output & Productivity 6.7 · Foundational
SenegalAfricaHigh 0.606.425.78−0.63−9.8▼ 125 · 2d30%Labour & Employment 4.7 · Nascent
LiberiaAfricaMedium 0.512.932.30−0.63−21.6▲ 315 · 4d14%Economic Output & Productivity 1.2 · Inception
PortugalEuropeHigh 0.8211.6811.06−0.62−5.3013 · 5d49%Economic Output & Productivity 10.3 · Transitional
ThailandIndo-PacificHigh 0.8010.7010.08−0.62−5.8▼ 118 · 3d48%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7.7 · Foundational
Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.647.767.15−0.62−7.9023 · 4d35%Economic Output & Productivity 7.3 · Foundational
NamibiaAfricaHigh 0.625.955.33−0.62−10.5▼ 315 · 2d32%Economic Output & Productivity 4.2 · Nascent
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.615.604.98−0.62−11.1▲ 316 · 2d31%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.7 · Inception
IcelandEuropeHigh 0.769.639.02−0.61−6.4▲ 122 · 2d46%Economic Output & Productivity 7.8 · Foundational
PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.617.176.56−0.61−8.5▲ 19 · 3d33%Economic Output & Productivity 6.8 · Foundational
Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.606.696.09−0.60−9.0022 · 2d33%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5.5 · Nascent
MaliAfricaMedium 0.493.412.82−0.60−17.4▲ 518 · 2d17%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.8 · Inception
BelgiumEuropeHigh 0.9013.4612.87−0.59−4.4024 · 3d56%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 12.8 · Established
BulgariaEuropeHigh 0.668.958.36−0.59−6.6▲ 116 · 1d40%Investment Attraction & Projection 7.1 · Foundational
RwandaAfricaMedium 0.555.955.36−0.59−10.0016 · 2d27%Economic Output & Productivity 4.8 · Nascent
UgandaAfricaMedium 0.545.534.94−0.59−10.7▲ 419 · 4d26%Investment Attraction & Projection 4.5 · Nascent
MalaysiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.8011.4810.90−0.58−5.1▼ 113 · 2d52%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9.5 · Transitional
LatviaEuropeHigh 0.709.899.32−0.58−5.8026 · 3d45%Economic Output & Productivity 7.8 · Foundational
Côte d'IvoireAfricaMedium 0.535.424.84−0.58−10.8▲ 218 · 1d26%Labour & Employment 4.3 · Nascent
NigerAfricaMedium 0.473.072.49−0.58−18.9▲ 515 · 3d16%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.1 · Inception
RomaniaEuropeHigh 0.6510.169.59−0.57−5.601541%Investment Attraction & Projection 8.8 · Foundational
ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.539.258.67−0.57−6.2018 · 3d27%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5.8 · Nascent
GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.597.556.97−0.57−7.6▼ 117 · 2d35%Economic Output & Productivity 5.8 · Nascent
KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.494.774.19−0.57−12.1▲ 21221%Investment Attraction & Projection 2.5 · Inception
LithuaniaEuropeHigh 0.7310.7510.19−0.56−5.2▼ 114 · 1d48%Economic Output & Productivity 9.4 · Transitional
UkraineRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.559.408.84−0.56−6.0▼ 117 · 1d31%Investment Attraction & Projection 5.2 · Nascent
UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.638.547.99−0.56−6.5018 · 3d41%Economic Output & Productivity 7.9 · Foundational
ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.535.795.23−0.56−9.6▲ 217 · 1d30%Investment Attraction & Projection 4.9 · Nascent
PalestineGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.443.723.16−0.56−15.0▲ 1011 · 2d14%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.5 · Inception
ComorosAfricaMedium 0.452.291.72−0.56−24.6▲ 310 · 2d12%Investment Attraction & Projection 0.5 · Inception
HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.432.031.46−0.56−27.7▲ 378%Investment Attraction & Projection 0.5 · Inception
AustriaEuropeHigh 0.8212.8112.26−0.55−4.3▼ 117 · 2d55%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 13.1 · Established
PolandEuropeHigh 0.7212.3911.85−0.55−4.4▼ 11549%Investment Attraction & Projection 11.6 · Transitional
MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.506.345.80−0.55−8.6▲ 219 · 4d27%Investment Attraction & Projection 4.2 · Nascent
ItalyEuropeHigh 0.7413.7213.19−0.54−3.9015 · 1d52%Labour & Employment 10.9 · Transitional
IrelandEuropeHigh 0.7912.0811.54−0.54−4.4▼ 119 · 2d54%Economic Output & Productivity 11.4 · Transitional
CzechiaEuropeHigh 0.7011.5110.97−0.54−4.7016 · 3d48%Economic Output & Productivity 10.9 · Transitional
OmanGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.588.037.49−0.54−6.7▲ 121 · 1d37%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.2 · Nascent
KenyaAfricaMedium 0.537.186.64−0.54−7.5▲ 21632%Labour & Employment 5.7 · Nascent
EstoniaEuropeHigh 0.7011.4910.96−0.53−4.6012 · 2d50%Economic Output & Productivity 8.9 · Foundational
South AfricaAfricaHigh 0.6910.7710.25−0.53−4.901649%Labour & Employment 8.9 · Foundational
GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.495.675.14−0.53−9.4▲ 417 · 1d27%Labour & Employment 4.7 · Nascent
SpainEuropeHigh 0.7513.7813.26−0.52−3.801053%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 11.9 · Transitional
ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.599.118.59−0.52−5.7021 · 2d40%Labour & Employment 8.5 · Foundational
Sri LankaSouth AsiaMedium 0.497.256.73−0.52−7.2▲ 118 · 1d28%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5.5 · Nascent
Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.526.826.30−0.52−7.6015 · 2d33%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 6.5 · Foundational
CameroonAfricaMedium 0.444.393.88−0.52−11.7▲ 611 · 1d21%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3.5 · Nascent
United KingdomEuropeHigh 0.9816.4515.94−0.51−3.1▼ 11365%Labour & Employment 14 · Established
EgyptGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.518.988.47−0.51−5.7017 · 2d32%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.6 · Nascent
BotswanaAfricaMedium 0.536.085.56−0.51−8.4▲ 314 · 2d35%Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
PhilippinesIndo-PacificMedium 0.568.838.33−0.50−5.7▲ 220 · 3d40%Labour & Employment 7.7 · Foundational
NigeriaAfricaMedium 0.497.436.93−0.50−6.7▲ 11232%Labour & Employment 4.5 · Nascent
TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.414.013.51−0.50−12.4▲ 81418%Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
AlgeriaAfricaMedium 0.446.966.47−0.49−7.0▲ 214 · 3d26%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3.5 · Nascent
LuxembourgEuropeHigh 0.7510.7910.31−0.48−4.4014 · 2d57%Economic Output & Productivity 10 · Transitional
PakistanSouth AsiaMedium 0.447.967.47−0.48−6.1▲ 116 · 1d27%Labour & Employment 4.8 · Nascent
TanzaniaAfricaMedium 0.445.825.35−0.48−8.2▲ 310 · 2d27%Labour & Employment 5 · Nascent
EthiopiaAfricaMedium 0.415.705.22−0.48−8.4▲ 318 · 3d21%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3.7 · Nascent
IraqGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.394.694.21−0.48−10.3▲ 6918%Investment Attraction & Projection 2.4 · Inception
NetherlandsEuropeHigh 0.8215.5015.02−0.47−3.105 · 1d62%Economic Output & Productivity 14.6 · Established
TaiwanIndo-PacificHigh 0.7114.0313.56−0.47−3.4013 · 4d55%Labour & Employment 12.6 · Established
BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.6111.6911.22−0.47−4.0012 · 2d48%Labour & Employment 10 · Transitional
MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.6110.8510.38−0.47−4.4015 · 1d48%Labour & Employment 8.8 · Foundational
IranGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.398.177.70−0.47−5.7▼ 110 · 1d20%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3.7 · Nascent
NepalSouth AsiaMedium 0.414.964.49−0.47−9.5▲ 710 · 2d23%Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
SingaporeIndo-PacificHigh 0.9515.2014.74−0.46−3.0012 · 3d67%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10.1 · Transitional
FinlandEuropeHigh 0.7014.5214.07−0.44−3.1▼ 113 · 2d57%Economic Output & Productivity 12.1 · Established
DenmarkEuropeHigh 0.7013.9413.51−0.43−3.1013 · 2d58%Economic Output & Productivity 13.6 · Established
PeruLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.508.618.17−0.43−5.0014 · 1d43%Labour & Employment 7.4 · Foundational
AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.416.796.36−0.43−6.3▲ 28 · 1d30%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.8 · Nascent
South KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 0.7016.0015.58−0.42−2.701060%Labour & Employment 14.2 · Established
IndonesiaIndo-PacificMedium 0.509.979.55−0.42−4.2▲ 11044%Labour & Employment 8.2 · Foundational
QatarGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.539.398.97−0.42−4.5▲ 38 · 1d47%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.8 · Inception
FranceEuropeHigh 0.7416.6416.22−0.41−2.50763%Labour & Employment 14.2 · Established
KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.467.517.09−0.41−5.5▲ 213 · 1d40%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.2 · Nascent
AfghanistanSouth AsiaLow 0.311.461.06−0.41−27.9▲ 476%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0 · Inception
SwedenEuropeHigh 0.6915.3014.90−0.40−2.60961%Economic Output & Productivity 14.7 · Established
United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.5711.9411.54−0.40−3.3▲ 115 · 1d53%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.5 · Inception
GermanyEuropeHigh 0.7016.3615.98−0.39−2.4▲ 1763%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 15.2 · Advanced
New ZealandIndo-PacificMedium 0.6012.8312.44−0.39−3.101856%Economic Output & Productivity 11.7 · Transitional
ChileLatin America and CaribbeanMedium 0.5210.6110.22−0.39−3.7▲ 37 · 3d50%Labour & Employment 10.5 · Transitional
UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.355.925.53−0.39−6.6▲ 615 · 2d25%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.2 · Nascent
JapanIndo-PacificHigh 0.7016.2615.88−0.38−2.401064%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 13.7 · Established
CanadaNorth AmericaHigh 0.6615.0614.68−0.38−2.5012 · 2d61%Economic Output & Productivity 14.2 · Established
TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLow 0.303.553.17−0.38−10.8▲ 1612 · 4d13%Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1 · Inception
IsraelGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.5214.4614.09−0.37−2.5▲ 113 · 1d52%Economic Output & Productivity 11.8 · Transitional
SwitzerlandEuropeHigh 0.6814.7314.37−0.36−2.50564%Economic Output & Productivity 14.8 · Established
KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMedium 0.388.147.78−0.36−4.4▲ 215 · 1d36%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.9 · Nascent
TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastMedium 0.3912.1811.83−0.35−2.9015 · 2d41%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational
BangladeshSouth AsiaLow 0.326.736.38−0.35−5.2▲ 51226%Labour & Employment 5.5 · Nascent
AustraliaIndo-PacificMedium 0.6014.9514.61−0.34−2.309 · 1d62%Economic Output & Productivity 13.8 · Established
NorwayEuropeMedium 0.5914.6214.29−0.34−2.309 · 1d62%Economic Output & Productivity 12.8 · Established
United StatesNorth AmericaHigh 0.6618.0317.71−0.32−1.709 · 4d68%Labour & Employment 13.9 · Established
IndiaSouth AsiaMedium 0.4112.6112.30−0.31−2.5▲ 11149%Labour & Employment 7.6 · Foundational
RussiaRussia and EurasiaLow 0.3112.3012.02−0.28−2.2▲ 1641%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.1 · Nascent
ChinaChinaMedium 0.4015.6415.38−0.26−1.70756%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.8 · Nascent
Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastLow 0.3411.1910.94−0.25−2.2▲ 19 · 1d50%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.8 · Inception

Settings of this run

Load
10 capability groups singled out, 73 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out
Political Institutions & Civic ParticipationHighGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceHighFinancial System Depth & AccessHighFinancial Regulation & IntegrityHighFinancial Stability & Crisis ManagementHighEconomic Output & ProductivityHighLabour & EmploymentHighBusiness Dynamism & EntrepreneurshipHighInvestment Attraction & ProjectionHigh
Buffers
Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceFinancial Stability & Crisis ManagementMonetary & Currency CapabilitySovereign Capital & External Financial PowerFinancial Regulation & Integrity

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure
regional exposure (30%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (30%); public debt relative to gdp (ranked) (25%); services as a share of gdp (15%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood
22 per cent over three years and 40 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.
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