Scenarios 2027 / Results / S15

Capture test · S15 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Superintelligence takeoff

D Technology and infrastructure↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers29net position above +10
Mixed35between the two
Losers133net position below -10
Largest net gain+74United States

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−40−200+20+40+60Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +74.4Canada: +53.8North America mean: +64.1United StatesEurope 42France: +41.1United Kingdom: +47.7Germany: +47.3Netherlands: +44.2Sweden: +36.8Switzerland: +39.5Norway: +28.0Finland: +33.3Denmark: +27.0Spain: +18.5Italy: +20.8Belgium: +29.2Austria: +30.1Poland: +13.2Ireland: +23.4Portugal: +9.1Czechia: +15.9Estonia: +11.8Luxembourg: +6.6Lithuania: +6.1Greece: −3.7Hungary: +5.1Slovenia: +8.0Romania: −1.9Slovakia: +1.4Latvia: +2.2Iceland: +7.8Croatia: −3.8Serbia: −7.9Bulgaria: −5.5Malta: −0.2Cyprus: −9.0Liechtenstein: −4.2North Macedonia: −19.5Montenegro: −20.9Albania: −20.9Monaco: −21.9Bosnia & Herzegovina: −26.1Andorra: −20.3San Marino: −16.3Kosovo: −22.0Holy See: −42.0Europe mean: +7.3China 1China: +46.1China mean: +46.1Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +57.5South Korea: +65.2Singapore: +44.8Australia: +30.0Taiwan: +51.6New Zealand: +17.6Malaysia: +19.7Thailand: +8.1Indonesia: −1.0Vietnam: +4.0Philippines: −8.5Mongolia: −16.6Brunei: −18.9Fiji: −25.4Cambodia: −16.4North Korea: −26.5Myanmar: −30.8Papua New Guinea: −24.8Laos: −23.3Samoa: −35.1Tonga: −26.6Timor-Leste: −30.0Vanuatu: −35.6Solomon Islands: −26.3Palau: −42.5Marshall Islands: −43.7Micronesia: −43.7Kiribati: −41.0Tuvalu: −42.9Nauru: −36.3Indo-Pacific mean: −9.9JapanSouth KoreaSouth Asia 8India: −0.4Pakistan: −25.9Sri Lanka: −27.3Bangladesh: −26.6Nepal: −36.8Maldives: −37.0Bhutan: −32.3Afghanistan: −52.6South Asia mean: −29.9AfghanistanGulf and Middle East 16Israel: +38.2Türkiye: +6.9United Arab Emirates: +15.7Saudi Arabia: +6.0Qatar: +1.7Egypt: −11.1Iran: −12.0Oman: −9.0Kuwait: −14.1Jordan: −20.4Bahrain: −6.5Iraq: −28.5Lebanon: −25.0Palestine: −33.5Syria: −40.9Yemen: −41.8Gulf and Middle East mean: −10.9Africa 53South Africa: −5.1Morocco: −10.3Mauritius: −9.5Tunisia: −18.1Nigeria: −12.9Kenya: −16.6Ghana: −9.2Algeria: −21.1Senegal: −12.3Botswana: −22.3Namibia: −22.4Rwanda: −20.7Tanzania: −10.2Ethiopia: −16.4Uganda: −16.2Côte d'Ivoire: −17.9Seychelles: −18.8Zambia: −22.7Cabo Verde: −28.1Angola: −28.7Cameroon: −22.3Zimbabwe: −28.1Mozambique: −21.0Benin: −19.0Togo: −21.5Gabon: −29.2Madagascar: −22.0Malawi: −22.5Eswatini: −34.9Sierra Leone: −20.7Mauritania: −31.5Burkina Faso: −24.0Lesotho: −31.3Mali: −20.6Gambia: −28.0Djibouti: −46.7Congo: −36.4Guinea: −23.5Niger: −22.7Libya: −34.3Liberia: −20.7DR Congo: −23.4São Tomé & Príncipe: −32.7Equatorial Guinea: −33.6Sudan: −35.7Burundi: −24.9Comoros: −29.9Chad: −20.2Guinea-Bissau: −23.6Eritrea: −27.1Central African Rep.: −30.0Somalia: −44.2South Sudan: −43.3Africa mean: −23.9DjiboutiLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +1.5Mexico: +1.8Chile: −1.8Argentina: −7.6Colombia: −12.9Peru: −10.2Uruguay: −9.7Costa Rica: −12.2Panama: −19.2Dominican Republic: −16.9Ecuador: −17.7Trinidad & Tobago: −15.7Jamaica: −20.4Cuba: −23.7Paraguay: −19.6El Salvador: −20.8Guatemala: −21.3Barbados: −25.3Bahamas: −27.3Bolivia: −19.0Honduras: −26.7Venezuela: −25.2Guyana: −19.7Nicaragua: −25.4Antigua & Barbuda: −27.9Grenada: −29.3Suriname: −29.1Belize: −29.6Dominica: −26.1Saint Lucia: −37.7Saint Kitts & Nevis: −30.2Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −36.8Haiti: −46.2Latin America and Caribbean mean: −20.8HaitiRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.4Ukraine: −13.7Kazakhstan: −13.6Georgia: −22.2Belarus: −15.6Azerbaijan: −20.5Armenia: −23.5Moldova: −17.3Uzbekistan: −22.1Kyrgyzstan: −24.3Tajikistan: −34.4Turkmenistan: −35.5Russia and Eurasia mean: −20.3
Lowest: Afghanistan, Djibouti, Haiti. Highest: Japan, South Korea, United States.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−50−250+25+50Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 85.3, net position +74.40France (Europe): readiness 77.9, net position +41.10United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 76.7, net position +47.70Germany (Europe): readiness 78.3, net position +47.30Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 80.8, net position +57.50South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 82.3, net position +65.20China (China): readiness 73.4, net position +46.10Netherlands (Europe): readiness 74.4, net position +44.20Sweden (Europe): readiness 63.8, net position +36.80Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 64.5, net position +44.80Canada (North America): readiness 64.3, net position +53.80Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 51.2, net position +30.00Switzerland (Europe): readiness 67.1, net position +39.50Norway (Europe): readiness 49.9, net position +28.00Finland (Europe): readiness 59.3, net position +33.30Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 63.8, net position +38.20Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 69.4, net position +51.60Denmark (Europe): readiness 48.1, net position +27.00Spain (Europe): readiness 52.5, net position +18.50Italy (Europe): readiness 61, net position +20.80Belgium (Europe): readiness 62.4, net position +29.20New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 38.5, net position +17.60Austria (Europe): readiness 59.3, net position +30.10India (South Asia): readiness 52.2, net position −0.40Poland (Europe): readiness 45.2, net position +13.20Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 50.3, net position −0.40Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 43.5, net position +6.90Ireland (Europe): readiness 52.8, net position +23.40United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.7, net position +15.70Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 41, net position +1.50Portugal (Europe): readiness 41.7, net position +9.10Czechia (Europe): readiness 46.9, net position +15.90Estonia (Europe): readiness 36.8, net position +11.80Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 49.9, net position +19.70Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 35.3, net position +6.00Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38.2, net position +1.80Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 33.4, net position +6.60South Africa (Africa): readiness 36.1, net position −5.10Lithuania (Europe): readiness 35.6, net position +6.10Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 37.6, net position +8.10Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.8, net position −1.80Greece (Europe): readiness 34, net position −3.70Hungary (Europe): readiness 39.2, net position +5.10Slovenia (Europe): readiness 35.3, net position +8.00Romania (Europe): readiness 35.3, net position −1.90Slovakia (Europe): readiness 33.3, net position +1.40Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 30.7, net position −1.00Latvia (Europe): readiness 30.8, net position +2.20Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 36.1, net position +4.00Iceland (Europe): readiness 30.5, net position +7.80Croatia (Europe): readiness 29.2, net position −3.80Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.5, net position −13.70Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 26.5, net position +1.70Morocco (Africa): readiness 27.1, net position −10.30Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30, net position −7.60Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.5, net position −12.90Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 27.2, net position −11.10Serbia (Europe): readiness 29.7, net position −7.90Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 29.9, net position −5.50Malta (Europe): readiness 29.4, net position −0.20Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 31.1, net position −8.50Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.3, net position −10.20Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24, net position −9.70Cyprus (Europe): readiness 25, net position −9.00Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 30.2, net position −12.00Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 22.5, net position −13.60Mauritius (Africa): readiness 22.4, net position −9.50Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 21.2, net position −9.00Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 22.9, net position −25.90Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.1, net position −12.20Tunisia (Africa): readiness 25.2, net position −18.10Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 21, net position −22.20Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.3, net position −14.10Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.1, net position −20.40Nigeria (Africa): readiness 20, net position −12.90Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 20.4, net position −6.50Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 20.6, net position −27.30Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 20.6, net position −4.20Kenya (Africa): readiness 20.3, net position −16.60Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.4, net position −19.20Ghana (Africa): readiness 18.8, net position −9.20Algeria (Africa): readiness 17.6, net position −21.10Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.6, net position −15.60Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.2, net position −16.90Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 17.5, net position −20.50Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.9, net position −17.70Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 18.7, net position −26.60Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.8, net position −15.70Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 22.4, net position −23.50North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 18.8, net position −19.50Senegal (Africa): readiness 16.5, net position −12.30Montenegro (Europe): readiness 18, net position −20.90Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 18.9, net position −17.30Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.4, net position −20.40Albania (Europe): readiness 15.9, net position −20.90Botswana (Africa): readiness 14.5, net position −22.30Namibia (Africa): readiness 14.2, net position −22.40Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.2, net position −23.70Rwanda (Africa): readiness 16.4, net position −20.70Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 16.8, net position −22.10Monaco (Europe): readiness 17.5, net position −21.90Tanzania (Africa): readiness 15, net position −10.20Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 16.1, net position −26.10Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15, net position −19.60Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.7, net position −16.60Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 15, net position −16.40El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.9, net position −20.80Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.4, net position −21.30Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.6, net position −18.90Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.4, net position −25.30Uganda (Africa): readiness 14.8, net position −16.20Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 13.5, net position −17.90Seychelles (Africa): readiness 13.1, net position −18.80Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.7, net position −27.30Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.1, net position −25.40Andorra (Europe): readiness 15, net position −20.30Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.9, net position −19.00Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.4, net position −26.70San Marino (Europe): readiness 13.9, net position −16.30Nepal (South Asia): readiness 12.8, net position −36.80Zambia (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position −22.70Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.9, net position −16.40Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 12.5, net position −24.30Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 11.8, net position −28.10Kosovo (Europe): readiness 12.7, net position −22.00Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 11.5, net position −28.50Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 13.3, net position −25.00Maldives (South Asia): readiness 12.1, net position −37.00Angola (Africa): readiness 10.3, net position −28.70Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.7, net position −25.20Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10, net position −19.70Cameroon (Africa): readiness 10.5, net position −22.30Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.4, net position −25.40Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11, net position −27.90Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 12.4, net position −28.10North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.6, net position −26.50Mozambique (Africa): readiness 9.6, net position −21.00Benin (Africa): readiness 10, net position −19.00Togo (Africa): readiness 9.3, net position −21.50Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.9, net position −29.30Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.9, net position −29.10Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.9, net position −29.60Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 9.7, net position −34.40Gabon (Africa): readiness 9.6, net position −29.20Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 10.5, net position −32.30Madagascar (Africa): readiness 9.2, net position −22.00Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.8, net position −30.80Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.7, net position −26.10Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.6, net position −37.70Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.6, net position −30.20Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.7, net position −24.80Malawi (Africa): readiness 8.9, net position −22.50Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.2, net position −36.80Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 10.4, net position −33.50Eswatini (Africa): readiness 9, net position −34.90Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.2, net position −23.30Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 7.8, net position −20.70Mauritania (Africa): readiness 8.3, net position −31.50Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 8, net position −35.50Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.3, net position −35.10Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 7.7, net position −24.00Lesotho (Africa): readiness 7.8, net position −31.30Mali (Africa): readiness 7.1, net position −20.60Gambia (Africa): readiness 7.3, net position −28.00Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.5, net position −26.60Djibouti (Africa): readiness 7.1, net position −46.70Congo (Africa): readiness 6.9, net position −36.40Guinea (Africa): readiness 6.8, net position −23.50Niger (Africa): readiness 6.5, net position −22.70Libya (Africa): readiness 6.9, net position −34.30Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.5, net position −30.00Liberia (Africa): readiness 6.3, net position −20.70Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.6, net position −35.60Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.4, net position −26.30DR Congo (Africa): readiness 6.1, net position −23.40São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 6.8, net position −32.70Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.7, net position −42.50Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 6.2, net position −33.60Sudan (Africa): readiness 5.6, net position −35.70Burundi (Africa): readiness 5.4, net position −24.90Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 5.5, net position −43.70Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 5.4, net position −43.70Comoros (Africa): readiness 4.7, net position −29.90Chad (Africa): readiness 4.1, net position −20.20Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 4.8, net position −40.90Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 5.2, net position −41.00Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 5.1, net position −42.90Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 4.4, net position −23.60Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4.5, net position −46.20Eritrea (Africa): readiness 3.4, net position −27.10Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 4.9, net position −36.30Holy See (Europe): readiness 4.2, net position −42.00Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 3.4, net position −30.00Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 3.4, net position −41.80Somalia (Africa): readiness 3.5, net position −44.20Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 3.4, net position −52.60South Sudan (Africa): readiness 2.8, net position −43.30United StatesJapanSouth KoreaDjiboutiHaitiAfghanistan
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: dependence on services employment, and young workers without openings.

South Asia 8−29.9
Africa 53−23.9
Latin America and Caribbean 33−20.9
Russia and Eurasia 12−20.3
Gulf and Middle East 16−10.9
Indo-Pacific 30−9.9
Europe 42+7.3
China 1+46.1
North America 2+64.1

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+74.483.59.28582Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced
2South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+65.272.97.78284Artificial Intelligence 16 · Advanced
3JapanIndo-PacificGainer+57.566.38.88183Digital & AI Competence 15.5 · Advanced
4CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+53.863.19.36481Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional
5TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+51.662.510.96978Artificial Intelligence 12.3 · Established
6United KingdomEuropeGainer+47.760.212.47782Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established
7GermanyEuropeGainer+47.355.07.77885Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced
8ChinaChinaGainer+46.163.417.37363Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
9SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+44.854.39.46583Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
10NetherlandsEuropeGainer+44.252.98.77484Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established
11FranceEuropeGainer+41.153.012.07880Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · Established
12SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+39.547.78.26785Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 · Transitional
13IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+38.250.212.06473Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
14SwedenEuropeGainer+36.845.28.36487Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional
15FinlandEuropeGainer+33.341.68.45986Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 · Foundational
16AustriaEuropeGainer+30.141.811.75979Artificial Intelligence 10 · Transitional
17AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+30.040.09.95181Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational
18BelgiumEuropeGainer+29.244.014.76276Artificial Intelligence 11 · Transitional
19NorwayEuropeGainer+28.035.87.85084Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 · Nascent
20DenmarkEuropeGainer+27.034.67.74886Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
21IrelandEuropeGainer+23.437.514.25375Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8 · Foundational
22ItalyEuropeGainer+20.841.520.76166Artificial Intelligence 11.3 · Transitional
23MalaysiaIndo-PacificGainer+19.739.119.45062Artificial Intelligence 8.3 · Foundational
24SpainEuropeGainer+18.537.018.55372Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5 · Foundational
25New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+17.629.912.33979Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
26CzechiaEuropeGainer+15.931.815.94768Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational
27United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+15.731.315.64058Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
28PolandEuropeGainer+13.230.717.44566Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational
29EstoniaEuropeGainer+11.825.714.03777Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception
30PortugalEuropeMixed+9.128.319.24269Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent
31ThailandIndo-PacificMixed+8.128.620.53856Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent
32SloveniaEuropeMixed+8.024.416.43567Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 · Nascent
33IcelandEuropeMixed+7.822.014.23173Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception
34TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastMixed+6.926.619.74458Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6 · Foundational
35LuxembourgEuropeMixed+6.624.017.43374Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
36LithuaniaEuropeMixed+6.124.518.43668Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent
37Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastMixed+6.025.419.43553Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent
38HungaryEuropeMixed+5.127.322.23960Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent
39VietnamIndo-PacificMixed+4.026.122.13647Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent
40LatviaEuropeMixed+2.221.419.33165Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception
41MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.820.018.23858Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent
42QatarGulf and Middle EastMixed+1.717.215.52749Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception
43BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.521.820.34162Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.3 · Nascent
44SlovakiaEuropeMixed+1.423.021.63363Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 · Nascent
45MaltaEuropeMixed−0.220.520.62964Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception
47RussiaRussia and EurasiaMixed−0.424.524.85050Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.2 · Foundational
46IndiaSouth AsiaMixed−0.427.027.55257Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 · Transitional
48IndonesiaIndo-PacificMixed−1.021.422.43153Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent
49ChileLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−1.816.818.63065Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
50RomaniaEuropeMixed−1.924.326.13556Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.8 · Nascent
51GreeceEuropeMixed−3.723.026.73458Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.7 · Nascent
52CroatiaEuropeMixed−3.819.523.42959Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception
53LiechtensteinEuropeMixed−4.214.718.92164Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
54South AfricaAfricaMixed−5.118.423.53659Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.3 · Nascent
55BulgariaEuropeMixed−5.519.825.33054Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception
56BahrainGulf and Middle EastMixed−6.513.219.72045Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
57ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−7.616.424.03054Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception
58SerbiaEuropeMixed−7.920.128.03053Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception
59PhilippinesIndo-PacificMixed−8.523.031.53149Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 · Nascent
61OmanGulf and Middle EastMixed−9.013.422.42146Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
60CyprusEuropeMixed−9.017.326.32558Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception
62GhanaAfricaMixed−9.29.218.41944Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
63MauritiusAfricaMixed−9.511.621.12258Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
64UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−9.713.222.92461Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
66TanzaniaAfricaLoser−10.25.515.81536Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
65PeruLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−10.211.621.82250Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception
67MoroccoAfricaLoser−10.315.025.32748Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception
68EgyptGulf and Middle EastLoser−11.115.526.62742Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception
69IranGulf and Middle EastLoser−12.017.829.83036Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4 · Nascent
70Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−12.214.026.22656Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.3 · Inception
71SenegalAfricaLoser−12.37.619.91741Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
73NigeriaAfricaLoser−12.97.920.82038Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception
72ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−12.912.024.92454Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception
74KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−13.611.024.62345Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception
75UkraineRussia and EurasiaLoser−13.714.828.53351Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
76KuwaitGulf and Middle EastLoser−14.112.526.71942Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
77BelarusRussia and EurasiaLoser−15.613.429.02839Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
78Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−15.79.525.21848Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
79UgandaAfricaLoser−16.24.821.01534Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
80San MarinoEuropeLoser−16.39.425.71451Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
82CambodiaIndo-PacificLoser−16.48.024.41229Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
81EthiopiaAfricaLoser−16.45.021.41530Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
84MongoliaIndo-PacificLoser−16.610.827.51543Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
83KenyaAfricaLoser−16.67.824.42044Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception
85Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−16.99.726.71846Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
86MoldovaRussia and EurasiaLoser−17.38.525.91944Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
87EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−17.79.126.91842Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
88Côte d'IvoireAfricaLoser−17.95.423.41434Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
89TunisiaAfricaLoser−18.112.530.62545Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception
90SeychellesAfricaLoser−18.87.125.91346Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
91BruneiIndo-PacificLoser−18.912.331.21637Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
93BeninAfricaLoser−19.03.822.81031Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
92BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.06.325.41336Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
94PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.210.029.11949Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
95North MacedoniaEuropeLoser−19.512.832.31948Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
96ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.67.727.31541Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
97GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−19.75.325.01033Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
98ChadAfricaLoser−20.21.321.5414Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
99AndorraEuropeLoser−20.310.630.91552Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
101JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−20.48.228.61545Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
100JordanGulf and Middle EastLoser−20.412.032.41942Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
102AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaLoser−20.58.428.91839Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
103MaliAfricaLoser−20.62.723.4719Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
106LiberiaAfricaLoser−20.72.222.9622Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
105Sierra LeoneAfricaLoser−20.72.723.3826Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
104RwandaAfricaLoser−20.76.327.01639Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
107El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−20.87.228.01537Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
109AlbaniaEuropeLoser−20.910.731.61644Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
108MontenegroEuropeLoser−20.912.433.31846Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
110MozambiqueAfricaLoser−21.03.324.21025Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
111AlgeriaAfricaLoser−21.19.030.11837Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
112GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−21.36.427.71436Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
113TogoAfricaLoser−21.53.625.1927Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
114MonacoEuropeLoser−21.912.634.51850Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
116MadagascarAfricaLoser−22.03.125.2926Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
115KosovoEuropeLoser−22.08.730.81336Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
117UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−22.18.030.21735Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
118GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaLoser−22.29.631.82150Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
120CameroonAfricaLoser−22.34.326.61126Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
119BotswanaAfricaLoser−22.37.629.91547Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
121NamibiaAfricaLoser−22.46.729.11445Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
122MalawiAfricaLoser−22.53.025.5926Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
124NigerAfricaLoser−22.72.325.0717Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
123ZambiaAfricaLoser−22.74.627.31234Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
125LaosIndo-PacificLoser−23.36.329.6922Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
126DR CongoAfricaLoser−23.42.325.7618Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
128GuineaAfricaLoser−23.52.426.0719Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
127ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaLoser−23.510.133.62245Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
129Guinea-BissauAfricaLoser−23.61.725.2415Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
130CubaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−23.78.031.71631Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception
131Burkina FasoAfricaLoser−24.02.526.6821Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
132KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaLoser−24.36.030.31334Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
133Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificLoser−24.84.329.1824Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
134BurundiAfricaLoser−24.91.726.6517Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
135LebanonGulf and Middle EastLoser−25.08.033.01327Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
136VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−25.26.431.51422Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception
137BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−25.37.532.71448Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
139NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−25.44.730.21027Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
138FijiIndo-PacificLoser−25.48.834.21237Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
140PakistanSouth AsiaLoser−25.99.935.82336Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception
142DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−26.15.231.21036Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
141Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeLoser−26.110.836.81639Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
143Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−26.33.930.3624Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
144North KoreaIndo-PacificLoser−26.58.835.41314Artificial Intelligence 1.7 · Inception
146TongaIndo-PacificLoser−26.65.031.6828Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
145BangladeshSouth AsiaLoser−26.69.135.71938Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception
147HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−26.75.632.31232Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
148EritreaAfricaLoser−27.11.228.3310Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
150BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−27.37.234.51343Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
149Sri LankaSouth AsiaLoser−27.310.437.72143Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception
151Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−27.95.633.61139Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
152GambiaAfricaLoser−28.03.131.1726Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
154ZimbabweAfricaLoser−28.14.933.01227Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
153Cabo VerdeAfricaLoser−28.15.934.01241Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
155IraqGulf and Middle EastLoser−28.56.935.41227Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
156AngolaAfricaLoser−28.74.333.01027Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
157SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−29.15.134.21034Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
158GabonAfricaLoser−29.24.834.01026Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
159GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−29.34.934.21035Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
160BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−29.64.934.51035Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
161ComorosAfricaLoser−29.91.831.7517Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
163Central African Rep.AfricaLoser−30.01.031.0312Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
162Timor-LesteIndo-PacificLoser−30.03.933.9726Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
164Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−30.24.935.01034Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
165MyanmarIndo-PacificLoser−30.85.836.6917Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
166LesothoAfricaLoser−31.33.334.7827Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
167MauritaniaAfricaLoser−31.53.234.8823Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
168BhutanSouth AsiaLoser−32.36.538.71135Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
169São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaLoser−32.73.235.9726Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
170PalestineGulf and Middle EastLoser−33.56.339.81026Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
171Equatorial GuineaAfricaLoser−33.62.836.5617Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
172LibyaAfricaLoser−34.33.838.1716Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
173TajikistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−34.43.738.11026Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
174EswatiniAfricaLoser−34.94.139.0926Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
175SamoaIndo-PacificLoser−35.15.540.6830Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
176TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−35.52.237.7820Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
177VanuatuIndo-PacificLoser−35.64.139.7725Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
178SudanAfricaLoser−35.72.037.7613Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
179NauruIndo-PacificLoser−36.33.639.9520Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
180CongoAfricaLoser−36.42.739.1720Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
182Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−36.84.741.5933Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
181NepalSouth AsiaLoser−36.86.643.51333Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
183MaldivesSouth AsiaLoser−37.07.344.31237Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
184Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−37.74.842.51034Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
185SyriaGulf and Middle EastLoser−40.92.243.1511Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
186KiribatiIndo-PacificLoser−41.03.944.9522Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
187YemenGulf and Middle EastLoser−41.81.343.138Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
188Holy SeeEuropeLoser−42.02.944.8410Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
189PalauIndo-PacificLoser−42.53.846.4727Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
190TuvaluIndo-PacificLoser−42.93.646.5522Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
191South SudanAfricaLoser−43.30.944.139Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
193MicronesiaIndo-PacificLoser−43.73.347.1521Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
192Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificLoser−43.73.847.5621Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
194SomaliaAfricaLoser−44.21.345.5410Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
195HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−46.21.847.9512Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
196DjiboutiAfricaLoser−46.73.450.0720Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
197AfghanistanSouth AsiaLoser−52.61.454.039Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced ComputingEnergy InfrastructureCommunications & Digital InfrastructureDigital & AI CompetenceResearch Talent & Knowledge CreationGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationTechnology Adoption & DiffusionRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Lifelong Learning & ReskillingFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationPolitical Institutions & Civic ParticipationTechnology Adoption & Diffusion
Gain exposure
regional exposure (70%); internet users as a share of population (30%).
Loss exposure
Dependence on services employment, and young workers without openings: regional exposure (40%); services as a share of gdp (40%); youth unemployment rate (ranked) (20%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results