Disaster in the core · Results

Typical nation−0.41median change in index, points

Hardest hit−0.87Haiti

Lose a domain band130of 197 nations

Worth of best practice+0.14mean points recovered over current plans

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Strategic Infrastructure−0.85

Governance & Integrity−0.72

Human Capital−0.64

Financial Strength−0.38

Information & Influence−0.29

Production & Innovation−0.29

Trade & Investment−0.29

National Security−0.24

Critical Technology−0.03

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

No responseCurrent plansBest practice

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Region

										Weakest point
Haiti	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.92	2.03	1.15	−0.87	−43.1	▼ 5	10	10%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
Djibouti	Africa	High 0.88	3.20	2.42	−0.79	−24.5	▼ 5	21 · 3d	18%	Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
Myanmar	Indo-Pacific	High 0.86	3.89	3.11	−0.78	−20.0	▼ 11	25 · 3d	17%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.9 · Inception
Timor-Leste	Indo-Pacific	High 0.86	2.98	2.24	−0.74	−24.9	▼ 5	23 · 3d	19%	Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
North Korea	Indo-Pacific	High 0.83	4.26	3.54	−0.72	−17.0	▼ 6	19	19%	Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception
Honduras	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.85	5.05	4.37	−0.68	−13.5	▼ 4	24 · 5d	26%	Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent
Nicaragua	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.84	4.37	3.69	−0.68	−15.6	▼ 3	20 · 2d	26%	Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Vanuatu	Indo-Pacific	High 0.80	2.93	2.25	−0.68	−23.2	▼ 2	19	20%	Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
Solomon Islands	Indo-Pacific	High 0.80	2.91	2.23	−0.68	−23.5	▼ 4	15 · 2d	20%	Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
Eritrea	Africa	High 0.71	2.01	1.34	−0.67	−33.2	▼ 1	10 · 1d	12%	Energy Infrastructure 0.2 · Inception
South Sudan	Africa	High 0.68	1.38	0.71	−0.67	−48.4	0	2	8%	Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Afghanistan	South Asia	High 0.70	1.46	0.80	−0.66	−45.1	0	9	11%	Energy Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception
Ecuador	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.88	6.76	6.13	−0.63	−9.3	▼ 5	21	34%	Energy Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
El Salvador	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.85	5.68	5.04	−0.63	−11.2	▼ 2	22 · 4d	32%	Energy Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent
Guatemala	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.81	5.67	5.04	−0.62	−11.0	0	21 · 4d	29%	Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent
Tonga	Indo-Pacific	High 0.75	3.21	2.59	−0.62	−19.2	▼ 3	18 · 3d	23%	Energy Infrastructure 1 · Inception
Brunei	Indo-Pacific	High 0.88	5.60	5.00	−0.60	−10.6	▼ 2	21 · 3d	38%	Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Venezuela	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.68	4.55	3.96	−0.60	−13.1	▼ 2	26 · 3d	19%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.9 · Inception
Mozambique	Africa	High 0.70	4.12	3.51	−0.60	−14.7	▼ 8	14	21%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
DR Congo	Africa	High 0.64	2.87	2.27	−0.60	−21.0	▲ 1	20 · 5d	14%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.5 · Inception
Algeria	Africa	High 0.83	6.96	6.37	−0.59	−8.4	▼ 2	21 · 2d	35%	Financial System Depth & Access 6 · Nascent
Madagascar	Africa	High 0.68	3.90	3.32	−0.59	−15.1	▼ 4	10	21%	Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Dominica	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.77	3.87	3.28	−0.59	−15.2	▼ 3	12 · 2d	27%	Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Malawi	Africa	High 0.69	3.76	3.18	−0.59	−15.6	▼ 4	14 · 1d	21%	Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception
Indonesia	Indo-Pacific	High 0.92	9.97	9.39	−0.58	−5.8	▼ 1	15 · 1d	42%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8 · Foundational
Philippines	Indo-Pacific	High 0.87	8.83	8.26	−0.58	−6.5	0	19 · 4d	39%	Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
Peru	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.88	8.61	8.03	−0.58	−6.7	▼ 2	26 · 2d	40%	Energy Infrastructure 7.8 · Foundational
Costa Rica	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.97	7.76	7.18	−0.58	−7.5	▼ 2	23 · 4d	44%	Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
Uganda	Africa	High 0.73	5.53	4.96	−0.57	−10.4	▼ 1	21 · 3d	27%	Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Cabo Verde	Africa	High 0.76	4.72	4.16	−0.57	−12.0	▼ 5	19 · 2d	31%	Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Turkmenistan	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.66	3.55	2.98	−0.57	−15.9	▼ 3	18 · 4d	22%	Financial System Depth & Access 3 · Nascent
Equatorial Guinea	Africa	High 0.62	2.80	2.23	−0.57	−20.3	▲ 1	18 · 3d	16%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.8 · Inception
Somalia	Africa	Medium 0.57	1.62	1.06	−0.57	−34.9	0	3	9%	Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Dominican Republic	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.79	6.82	6.26	−0.56	−8.2	▼ 4	17 · 2d	35%	Energy Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
Papua New Guinea	Indo-Pacific	High 0.63	3.80	3.24	−0.56	−14.7	▼ 3	13	18%	Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Mexico	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.91	10.85	10.30	−0.55	−5.0	▼ 4	20 · 1d	45%	Health System Capability 9.8 · Transitional
Tunisia	Africa	High 0.79	7.71	7.17	−0.54	−7.0	▼ 2	17 · 1d	37%	Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
Ethiopia	Africa	High 0.67	5.70	5.15	−0.54	−9.5	▼ 1	25 · 4d	26%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4.7 · Nascent
Argentina	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.83	9.25	8.72	−0.53	−5.7	0	12 · 1d	41%	Financial System Depth & Access 7.7 · Foundational
Marshall Islands	Indo-Pacific	High 0.61	2.48	1.95	−0.53	−21.2	0	13 · 1d	17%	Energy Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception
Comoros	Africa	Medium 0.59	2.29	1.76	−0.53	−23.1	▼ 2	12 · 3d	15%	Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
Morocco	Africa	High 0.81	9.36	8.84	−0.52	−5.6	0	11 · 2d	41%	Health System Capability 8.6 · Foundational
Bahamas	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.72	5.16	4.65	−0.52	−10.1	▼ 3	17	33%	Energy Infrastructure 2.3 · Inception
Palau	Indo-Pacific	High 0.61	2.84	2.32	−0.52	−18.1	▲ 4	17 · 2d	20%	Energy Infrastructure 1.2 · Inception
Pakistan	South Asia	High 0.65	7.96	7.45	−0.51	−6.4	0	16 · 3d	29%	Health System Capability 5.6 · Nascent
Belize	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.64	4.03	3.52	−0.51	−12.6	▼ 2	14 · 1d	27%	Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Albania	Europe	High 0.71	6.13	5.63	−0.50	−8.2	▼ 2	12 · 4d	35%	Energy Infrastructure 4.5 · Nascent
Zambia	Africa	High 0.62	4.93	4.42	−0.50	−10.2	0	13	25%	Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent
Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.63	3.76	3.26	−0.50	−13.3	0	10 · 2d	26%	Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception
Mali	Africa	Medium 0.57	3.41	2.91	−0.50	−14.7	0	20 · 1d	18%	Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Tuvalu	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.58	2.12	1.61	−0.50	−23.7	▼ 1	6	17%	Energy Infrastructure 0.5 · Inception
Nauru	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.57	1.96	1.46	−0.50	−25.7	▲ 2	10 · 1d	16%	Energy Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception
India	South Asia	High 0.80	12.61	12.13	−0.49	−3.9	▼ 1	14	44%	Health System Capability 9 · Foundational
Colombia	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.79	9.11	8.62	−0.49	−5.4	▼ 2	18	43%	Energy Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational
Jordan	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.71	7.50	7.01	−0.49	−6.5	▼ 2	14	37%	Energy Infrastructure 6.7 · Foundational
Uzbekistan	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.66	5.92	5.43	−0.49	−8.2	▼ 2	15 · 2d	31%	Transport Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
Tanzania	Africa	High 0.62	5.82	5.34	−0.49	−8.3	▼ 2	16 · 2d	29%	Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Congo	Africa	Medium 0.54	3.19	2.70	−0.49	−15.2	0	17 · 1d	17%	Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Kiribati	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.57	2.20	1.71	−0.49	−22.3	0	14 · 1d	17%	Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
Iran	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.68	8.17	7.69	−0.48	−5.9	▼ 3	11	36%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.8 · Nascent
Bolivia	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.62	5.11	4.63	−0.48	−9.4	▼ 1	14 · 1d	29%	Transport Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Burundi	Africa	Medium 0.53	2.48	2.00	−0.48	−19.5	0	17 · 3d	15%	Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
Kosovo	Europe	High 0.60	4.70	4.23	−0.47	−10.1	▼ 1	12	27%	Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
Grenada	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.60	4.04	3.57	−0.47	−11.6	▼ 1	8 · 2d	27%	Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Saint Kitts & Nevis	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.59	3.83	3.36	−0.47	−12.2	▲ 2	7 · 2d	25%	Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Laos	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.55	3.70	3.23	−0.47	−12.8	▲ 1	9	20%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 3.7 · Nascent
São Tomé & Príncipe	Africa	Medium 0.55	2.85	2.38	−0.47	−16.4	▲ 4	20 · 1d	20%	Energy Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception
Central African Rep.	Africa	Medium 0.49	1.66	1.20	−0.47	−28.1	0	6	10%	Energy Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception
China	China	High 0.93	15.64	15.18	−0.46	−2.9	▼ 1	12	55%	Health System Capability 12.4 · Established
Cuba	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.68	5.95	5.49	−0.46	−7.8	▼ 1	11 · 2d	38%	Financial System Depth & Access 3.2 · Nascent
Angola	Africa	Medium 0.54	4.60	4.15	−0.46	−9.9	▼ 1	12 · 1d	22%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 3.9 · Nascent
Zimbabwe	Africa	Medium 0.54	4.34	3.87	−0.46	−10.7	▲ 1	10 · 2d	21%	Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
Nigeria	Africa	Medium 0.58	7.43	6.98	−0.45	−6.1	▼ 2	17 · 1d	29%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
Kenya	Africa	High 0.61	7.18	6.73	−0.45	−6.3	▼ 1	10	32%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
Bangladesh	South Asia	High 0.61	6.73	6.28	−0.45	−6.6	0	16	32%	Energy Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational
Lebanon	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.53	4.66	4.20	−0.45	−9.7	0	18 · 2d	22%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.4 · Inception
Samoa	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.56	3.48	3.03	−0.45	−12.9	▼ 1	13 · 2d	24%	Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception
Egypt	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.64	8.98	8.54	−0.44	−4.9	▼ 3	14 · 1d	38%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 8.4 · Foundational
Seychelles	Africa	High 0.64	5.27	4.83	−0.44	−8.4	▼ 2	15 · 2d	36%	Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
Saint Lucia	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.56	3.85	3.41	−0.44	−11.5	▲ 3	9 · 2d	26%	Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Gambia	Africa	Medium 0.50	3.32	2.87	−0.44	−13.4	0	12 · 2d	19%	Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception
Russia	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.73	12.30	11.87	−0.43	−3.5	▼ 1	13	46%	Health System Capability 10.5 · Transitional
Senegal	Africa	Medium 0.57	6.42	5.99	−0.43	−6.7	▼ 2	16 · 1d	31%	Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Nepal	South Asia	Medium 0.54	4.96	4.54	−0.43	−8.6	▲ 1	12 · 2d	27%	Transport Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.53	4.93	4.50	−0.43	−8.7	▲ 2	10 · 1d	25%	Energy Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent
Antigua & Barbuda	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.57	4.36	3.92	−0.43	−10.0	▲ 1	11 · 2d	29%	Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Suriname	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.53	4.04	3.60	−0.43	−10.7	▲ 2	11 · 1d	25%	Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Mauritania	Africa	Medium 0.49	3.58	3.15	−0.43	−12.1	▲ 1	10	19%	Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
Libya	Africa	Medium 0.46	3.01	2.58	−0.43	−14.1	▲ 1	23	16%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.2 · Inception
Sudan	Africa	Medium 0.45	2.61	2.18	−0.43	−16.4	0	12 · 1d	12%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.2 · Inception
Micronesia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.50	2.33	1.89	−0.43	−18.6	0	12	17%	Energy Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception
Kyrgyzstan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.53	4.77	4.35	−0.42	−8.7	0	14	27%	Transport Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Cameroon	Africa	Medium 0.49	4.39	3.97	−0.42	−9.6	▲ 1	13 · 1d	22%	Energy Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent
Tajikistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.51	4.01	3.59	−0.42	−10.5	▲ 3	10	24%	Transport Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent
United States	North America	High 0.97	18.03	17.62	−0.41	−2.3	0	11 · 4d	62%	Health System Capability 14.6 · Established
Chile	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.78	10.61	10.20	−0.41	−3.9	0	10 · 2d	51%	Energy Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional
Jamaica	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.56	6.24	5.84	−0.41	−6.5	0	13 · 2d	34%	Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.56	5.73	5.33	−0.41	−7.1	0	4 · 2d	33%	Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent
Gabon	Africa	Medium 0.48	3.94	3.53	−0.41	−10.4	▲ 1	7	22%	Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Türkiye	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.71	12.18	11.78	−0.40	−3.3	▼ 1	17 · 2d	49%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 · Transitional
Côte d'Ivoire	Africa	Medium 0.51	5.42	5.02	−0.40	−7.5	▲ 2	10 · 2d	26%	Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Chad	Africa	Medium 0.42	2.26	1.86	−0.40	−17.7	0	15 · 2d	12%	Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
Holy See	Europe	Medium 0.55	1.85	1.44	−0.40	−21.9	▲ 2	5 · 1d	11%	Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
South Korea	Indo-Pacific	High 0.96	16.00	15.61	−0.39	−2.5	0	9	63%	Energy Infrastructure 15.1 · Advanced
Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	High 0.86	14.03	13.64	−0.39	−2.8	▼ 1	15 · 3d	59%	Energy Infrastructure 12.4 · Established
Vietnam	Indo-Pacific	High 0.63	9.68	9.28	−0.39	−4.1	▼ 1	15 · 1d	43%	Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
Uruguay	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.67	8.54	8.16	−0.39	−4.5	0	15 · 1d	46%	Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.56	6.65	6.26	−0.39	−5.9	0	12 · 1d	35%	Transport Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
Paraguay	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.53	5.79	5.40	−0.39	−6.7	▲ 1	14 · 1d	33%	Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent
Togo	Africa	Medium 0.46	4.05	3.66	−0.39	−9.7	▲ 2	13	22%	Energy Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception
Trinidad & Tobago	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.56	6.69	6.31	−0.38	−5.7	▲ 3	17 · 2d	37%	Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent
Burkina Faso	Africa	Medium 0.44	3.47	3.09	−0.38	−11.0	▲ 2	12	19%	Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception
Brazil	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.65	11.69	11.32	−0.37	−3.2	▼ 1	15 · 2d	48%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11.2 · Transitional
Hungary	Europe	High 0.65	10.51	10.14	−0.37	−3.5	▼ 1	21 · 1d	48%	Transport Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
Ghana	Africa	Medium 0.49	6.98	6.61	−0.37	−5.2	▼ 1	11 · 1d	32%	Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Barbados	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.54	5.56	5.19	−0.37	−6.6	▲ 4	7 · 2d	36%	Energy Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent
Guyana	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.45	4.53	4.16	−0.37	−8.1	▲ 3	12 · 1d	26%	Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
Lesotho	Africa	Medium 0.44	3.43	3.06	−0.37	−10.8	▲ 2	12	20%	Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Niger	Africa	Medium 0.41	3.07	2.70	−0.37	−12.0	▲ 3	14 · 2d	17%	Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception
Liberia	Africa	Medium 0.41	2.93	2.57	−0.37	−12.5	▲ 2	15 · 2d	17%	Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Guinea-Bissau	Africa	Medium 0.39	2.07	1.71	−0.37	−17.7	▲ 1	14 · 1d	13%	Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
Japan	Indo-Pacific	High 0.93	16.26	15.90	−0.36	−2.2	0	8	65%	Energy Infrastructure 16.2 · Advanced
Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	High 0.63	11.48	11.13	−0.36	−3.1	0	13 · 1d	48%	Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
South Africa	Africa	Medium 0.59	10.77	10.41	−0.36	−3.4	▼ 1	12 · 1d	44%	Health System Capability 10 · Transitional
Botswana	Africa	Medium 0.52	6.08	5.72	−0.36	−5.9	▲ 1	10 · 3d	36%	Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Syria	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.37	2.22	1.86	−0.36	−16.2	▲ 2	10 · 2d	11%	Financial System Depth & Access 1.1 · Inception
Italy	Europe	High 0.70	13.72	13.37	−0.35	−2.6	0	11 · 1d	54%	Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established
Namibia	Africa	Medium 0.48	5.95	5.60	−0.35	−5.9	▼ 2	5 · 1d	33%	Energy Infrastructure 4.7 · Nascent
Iraq	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.42	4.69	4.34	−0.35	−7.5	▲ 2	10 · 1d	24%	Financial System Depth & Access 4.1 · Nascent
Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.41	3.72	3.36	−0.35	−9.4	▲ 7	5 · 2d	21%	Transport Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception
Eswatini	Africa	Medium 0.42	3.71	3.36	−0.35	−9.5	▲ 6	7	22%	Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
Greece	Europe	Medium 0.59	10.61	10.27	−0.34	−3.2	0	10	46%	Energy Infrastructure 9.2 · Transitional
Bulgaria	Europe	Medium 0.53	8.95	8.62	−0.34	−3.8	0	11	42%	Financial System Depth & Access 8.9 · Foundational
Cyprus	Europe	Medium 0.56	8.51	8.17	−0.34	−4.0	▲ 2	10	45%	Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
Sri Lanka	South Asia	Medium 0.49	7.25	6.91	−0.34	−4.7	▼ 1	12 · 1d	36%	Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Montenegro	Europe	Medium 0.49	6.35	6.01	−0.34	−5.4	0	8 · 2d	36%	Energy Infrastructure 5.7 · Nascent
Rwanda	Africa	Medium 0.49	5.95	5.60	−0.34	−5.8	0	9 · 1d	34%	Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	Medium 0.46	5.80	5.45	−0.34	−5.9	▲ 2	9 · 3d	31%	Transport Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
San Marino	Europe	Medium 0.55	5.03	4.69	−0.34	−6.7	▲ 3	9	40%	Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Sierra Leone	Africa	Medium 0.39	3.59	3.26	−0.34	−9.3	▲ 5	9 · 1d	21%	Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception
Guinea	Africa	Medium 0.38	3.15	2.81	−0.34	−10.8	▲ 3	7	17%	Energy Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception
Australia	Indo-Pacific	High 0.82	14.95	14.62	−0.33	−2.2	0	9 · 1d	63%	Energy Infrastructure 12.3 · Established
Maldives	South Asia	Medium 0.43	4.62	4.29	−0.33	−7.1	▲ 3	17	31%	Energy Infrastructure 3 · Inception
Benin	Africa	Medium 0.40	4.09	3.75	−0.33	−8.2	▲ 3	8 · 1d	23%	Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Yemen	Gulf and Middle East	Low 0.33	1.62	1.29	−0.33	−20.6	▲ 2	5	8%	Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
France	Europe	High 0.79	16.64	16.32	−0.32	−1.9	▼ 1	4	63%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced
New Zealand	Indo-Pacific	High 0.72	12.83	12.52	−0.32	−2.5	▼ 1	8 · 1d	60%	Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Ukraine	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.50	9.40	9.08	−0.32	−3.4	▼ 1	12	40%	Financial System Depth & Access 7.2 · Foundational
Kazakhstan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.50	8.14	7.82	−0.32	−4.0	▲ 1	15 · 1d	40%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.5 · Foundational
Mauritius	Africa	Medium 0.53	8.08	7.76	−0.32	−4.0	▲ 1	9 · 1d	45%	Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Panama	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.49	7.17	6.85	−0.32	−4.5	▲ 1	7 · 2d	39%	Energy Infrastructure 7.2 · Foundational
North Macedonia	Europe	Medium 0.47	6.61	6.29	−0.32	−4.9	▲ 4	14 · 2d	37%	Energy Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational
Fiji	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.42	5.16	4.84	−0.32	−6.2	▲ 1	8	29%	Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.48	7.55	7.23	−0.31	−4.2	▲ 1	12 · 2d	39%	Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational
Bhutan	South Asia	Medium 0.41	3.93	3.61	−0.31	−8.0	▲ 7	9 · 1d	29%	Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Slovenia	Europe	Medium 0.57	10.48	10.18	−0.30	−2.9	▲ 1	7 · 1d	51%	Energy Infrastructure 10.7 · Transitional
Romania	Europe	Medium 0.49	10.16	9.86	−0.30	−2.9	▼ 1	9	44%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
Iceland	Europe	High 0.62	9.63	9.33	−0.30	−3.2	▲ 1	11 · 2d	55%	Energy Infrastructure 7.9 · Foundational
Israel	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.62	14.46	14.17	−0.29	−2.0	0	15 · 1d	57%	Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Portugal	Europe	Medium 0.57	11.68	11.39	−0.29	−2.5	▲ 1	2 · 1d	52%	Energy Infrastructure 10.4 · Transitional
Serbia	Europe	Medium 0.47	8.97	8.67	−0.29	−3.3	▲ 2	15	43%	Energy Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational
Spain	Europe	Medium 0.59	13.78	13.50	−0.28	−2.0	0	11	56%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 13.6 · Established
Thailand	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.48	10.70	10.42	−0.28	−2.6	▲ 2	12 · 1d	47%	Energy Infrastructure 9.9 · Transitional
Croatia	Europe	Medium 0.47	9.53	9.25	−0.28	−2.9	0	11 · 1d	46%	Energy Infrastructure 9 · Foundational
Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.43	7.32	7.04	−0.28	−3.8	▲ 1	16	41%	Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
Oman	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.43	8.03	7.76	−0.27	−3.3	▲ 1	12	43%	Energy Infrastructure 6.8 · Foundational
Lithuania	Europe	Medium 0.49	10.75	10.48	−0.26	−2.5	▲ 2	9	51%	Energy Infrastructure 9.4 · Transitional
Azerbaijan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.37	6.79	6.54	−0.26	−3.8	▲ 2	9	36%	Financial System Depth & Access 6.4 · Foundational
Malta	Europe	Medium 0.44	8.89	8.64	−0.25	−2.8	▲ 3	11 · 3d	48%	Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
Kuwait	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.38	7.51	7.26	−0.25	−3.3	▲ 3	11 · 1d	40%	Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Saudi Arabia	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.43	11.19	10.96	−0.24	−2.1	0	9 · 1d	49%	Energy Infrastructure 9 · Foundational
Singapore	Indo-Pacific	High 0.60	15.20	14.97	−0.23	−1.5	0	10 · 3d	66%	Energy Infrastructure 9 · Transitional
Canada	North America	Medium 0.54	15.06	14.84	−0.23	−1.5	0	9	62%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.8 · Established
Luxembourg	Europe	Medium 0.46	10.79	10.57	−0.23	−2.1	▲ 1	7 · 1d	55%	Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational
Belarus	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.34	6.90	6.67	−0.23	−3.4	▲ 2	11 · 2d	38%	Financial System Depth & Access 6.3 · Foundational
Monaco	Europe	Medium 0.38	5.91	5.69	−0.23	−3.8	▲ 5	10	44%	Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Netherlands	Europe	Medium 0.54	15.50	15.28	−0.22	−1.4	▲ 1	2 · 1d	63%	Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established
Belgium	Europe	Medium 0.48	13.46	13.24	−0.22	−1.6	0	12 · 3d	58%	Energy Infrastructure 12.9 · Established
Austria	Europe	Medium 0.50	12.81	12.59	−0.22	−1.7	▲ 1	13 · 2d	60%	Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
Czechia	Europe	Medium 0.43	11.51	11.29	−0.22	−1.9	0	7 · 1d	52%	Transport Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
Slovakia	Europe	Medium 0.39	10.10	9.88	−0.22	−2.2	▲ 1	11 · 2d	48%	Transport Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
Qatar	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.38	9.39	9.17	−0.22	−2.3	▲ 1	5	47%	Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational
Poland	Europe	Medium 0.40	12.39	12.18	−0.21	−1.7	▲ 1	4	51%	Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Moldova	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.29	6.34	6.14	−0.21	−3.3	▲ 3	11 · 2d	34%	Energy Infrastructure 5.4 · Nascent
Andorra	Europe	Medium 0.36	5.15	4.94	−0.21	−4.2	▲ 3	8	41%	Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Estonia	Europe	Medium 0.42	11.49	11.29	−0.20	−1.8	0	7	56%	Energy Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational
United Arab Emirates	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.36	11.94	11.76	−0.19	−1.6	0	8	52%	Energy Infrastructure 11.9 · Transitional
Switzerland	Europe	Medium 0.45	14.73	14.55	−0.18	−1.2	0	1	63%	Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
Denmark	Europe	Medium 0.46	13.94	13.76	−0.18	−1.3	▲ 1	9 · 1d	63%	Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Latvia	Europe	Low 0.32	9.89	9.71	−0.18	−1.8	▲ 1	14	48%	Energy Infrastructure 8.6 · Foundational
Germany	Europe	Medium 0.44	16.36	16.19	−0.17	−1.1	0	6	64%	Energy Infrastructure 14.5 · Established
Norway	Europe	Medium 0.42	14.62	14.46	−0.17	−1.1	0	7	64%	Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional
Ireland	Europe	Low 0.31	12.08	11.92	−0.15	−1.3	▲ 2	8 · 1d	55%	Energy Infrastructure 9.3 · Transitional
Sweden	Europe	Medium 0.36	15.30	15.16	−0.14	−0.9	0	5	64%	Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
Finland	Europe	Medium 0.35	14.52	14.38	−0.14	−0.9	0	9	64%	Transport Infrastructure 14.6 · Established
Liechtenstein	Europe	Low 0.23	7.22	7.08	−0.14	−1.9	▲ 4	5 · 1d	44%	Transport Infrastructure 4.2 · Nascent
United Kingdom	Europe	Low 0.24	16.45	16.36	−0.10	−0.6	▲ 1	6	63%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established

Settings of this run

Load: 10 capability groups singled out, 64 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out: Energy InfrastructureHighWater, Sanitation & Waste InfrastructureHighTransport InfrastructureHighCommunications & Digital InfrastructureHighSocial InfrastructureHighHealth System CapabilityHighGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementHighFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceMediumFinancial System Depth & AccessMedium
Buffers: National Resilience & Crisis ManagementGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceSocial InfrastructureHealth System Capability
Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.
Exposure: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation (50%); regional exposure (30%); urban share of population (20%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood: 4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results

Catastrophic disaster in the core

Change in index, by region

Does capability protect?

Where the load lands

What policy is worth

All 197 nations

Settings of this run