Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · AND

Andorra

Baseline index 5.16Rank 116 of 197NascentEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years22.7rank 79 of 197 · 3 years: 23.1
Worst case−17.6%Pandemic · tail −16.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.9rank 138 of 197 · 3 years: −6.3
Best case+14100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed22%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.01expected index points from best practice
Breadth5 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; services as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Andorra’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.91
Global financial crisis S03−0.78
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.78
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.77
Energy supply shock S09−0.75
AI diffusion shock S13−0.73
Chokepoint closure S05−0.61
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.44
Hybrid campaign S06−0.41
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.28
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.26
Mass displacement S08−0.21
Disaster in the core S10−0.21
Food and water shock S11−0.20
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.91−0.91−1.20−0.54▼ 424Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.77−0.78−1.05−0.47▼ 221Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.80−0.78−0.96−0.43020Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.76−0.77−0.89−0.40▼ 415Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.78−0.75−0.91−0.40▲ 116Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.90−0.73−1.02−0.46018Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.70−0.61−0.69−0.31▲ 213Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.67−0.44−0.51−0.23011Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.54−0.41−0.46−0.22▼ 210Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Low 0.27−0.28−0.38−0.17▲ 69Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.47−0.26−0.40−0.18▲ 39Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.43−0.21−0.36−0.16▲ 29Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9.4 · Transitional
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.36−0.21−0.36−0.16▲ 38Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Low 0.22−0.20−0.27−0.12▲ 57Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.20−0.48−0.17−1.36−1.18−1.27−1.19−1.16−1.16
Global financial crisis−0.14−0.36−0.15−0.85−0.85−1.06−1.41−1.21−0.97
Infrastructure collapse−0.20−1.20−0.21−0.49−0.49−1.22−1.14−1.12−0.98
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.20−0.41−0.16·−1.13−1.09−1.13−1.11−1.66
Energy supply shock−0.02−0.89−0.16−0.48−0.48−1.08−1.28−1.24−1.10
AI diffusion shock−0.20−0.41−0.16−1.27−0.95−1.31−1.11−0.61−0.54
Chokepoint closure−0.02−0.95−0.24·−0.54−1.16−0.46−0.93−1.19
Single-supplier cut-off−0.20−0.24−0.15−0.47·−0.96·−0.97−0.97
Hybrid campaign−0.13−0.74−0.28·−0.95−0.89·−0.36−0.36
Sovereign funding crisis−0.02−0.22−0.06−0.33−0.30−0.41−0.50−0.30−0.34
Legitimacy crisis−0.10·−0.16−0.23−0.53−0.74−0.61··
Mass displacement·−0.21−0.08−0.46−0.38−0.52−0.22−0.03·
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.43−0.06−0.35−0.16−0.39−0.21−0.16−0.16
Food and water shock−0.02−0.20−0.05−0.29−0.27−0.29−0.14−0.24−0.27

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Andorra is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+14.1
Energy abundance S16+13.4
Middle East settlement S21+7.1
Digital state leapfrog S23−5.8
Great-power détente S18−7.0
Sovereign debt reset S19−9.3
Yield revolution S22−12.7
Emerging-market breakout S20−13.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−25.8
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+14.116.92.72072Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+13.413.70.31478Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+7.18.61.52096Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−5.83.59.323112Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−7.011.418.417151Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−9.30.910.249194Financial Regulation & Integrity 9 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−12.71.514.217163Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Loser−13.34.017.227192Transport Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−20.310.630.91599Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−25.810.836.524184Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception